Week 6 at Kansas City Chiefs
Samaje Perine logged a season-high 95 total yards last Sunday on six carries and four receptions (six targets). Despite the nice showing in Week 5, Perine's fantasy outlook has dimmed considerably following the emergence of rookie Jaleel McLaughlin as Javonte Williams' direct backup. Even if Williams misses Thursday's game, McLaughlin would stand to have a prominent role in the backfield splitting with Perine. The Broncos are double-digit underdogs against the Chiefs this week, which likely means limited rushing volume on offense. Perine is not an advisable start in fantasy this week.
Week 5 vs. New York Jets
Javonte Williams left Week 4 early and Samaje Perine still only saw eight touches. He only managed 35 total yards on those opportunities, and rookie Jaleel McLaughlin appeared to slot in as Williams' direct backup by seeing seven carries and three targets. McLaughlin looks like a real threat to Perine's contingent upside that was expected if Williams were to miss time, and the Broncos get a difficult matchup this week against the stout Jets defense. Perine will undoubtedly be involved in Week 5, perhaps more than usual if Williams is out, but the presence of McLaughlin makes him tough to stomach as a legitimate fantasy starter.
Week 4 at Chicago Bears
Samaje Perine continues to work well behind Javonte Williams in the Denver backfield and only saw five touches in Week 3 when the Broncos got destroyed by the Dolphins in Miami. Even in an extreme negative game script, Perine could not earn more than three targets in the passing game and he only projects for a couple of carries each week. The Broncos get a great matchup this week against the Bears' weak defense, but unless Perine starts to see more usage he cannot be started with any confidence in fantasy.
Week 3 at Miami Dolphins
Samaje Perine has seen 16 touches through two weeks, which is well behind Javonte Williams' 31 opportunities. Perine typically relies on receptions for most of his production and he has caught seven balls in his first two games this year, but those have only gone for 57 total receiving yards and no touchdowns. Perine is only seeing a couple carries a game to go along with his expected passing game role, which is a tough workload to turn into a fantasy-viable performance in this Denver offense. Perine could see some extra opportunity due to game script this week with the Broncos traveling to Miami to face a strong Dolphins team, but he still is nothing more than a low-end flex play in full PPR leagues.
Week 2 vs. Washington Commanders
Samaje Perine had a role in the Denver offense in Week 1, but he took a clear backseat to Javonte Williams. Perine got eight carries and saw four targets, while Williams received 13 carries to go along with six targets. This backfield looks like it will be split in Williams' favor unless his knee issues flare up during the season. Perine will have to rely largely on third-down and change of pace duties, which is a difficult proposition for fantasy in an offense that has not consistently produced since Russell Wilson arrived to play quarterback. Perine gets a small boost in full-PPR formats, but even with that he remains an unexciting flex option at best given how he was used in Week 1.
Week 1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Samaje Perine is now signed in Denver to work in tandem with Javonte Williams, who is coming off a serious knee injury suffered last season. In Week 1, Perine and Williams will face off with a poor Las Vegas defense that was involved in numerous shootout-type games in 2022. On the surface, Perine would appear poised for a strictly third-down or pass catching role out of the backfield for Russell Wilson, but Williams' injury situation injects a lot of uncertainty into the backfield in Denver. If Williams is not 100% yet or the coaching staff is intent on easing him in to a full workload, Perine could see some early-down rushing work as well. In the end, both backs fall into the borderline flex conversation until we can collect more data on how exactly Sean Payton will use them in 2023. It will be tough to start either one in Week 1, but Perine is a decent flex option for PPR formats.
Fantasy Upside
After spending most of his career in Cincinnati as the backup to Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine now transitions to Denver where he will take some pass catching work, and could be in line for more than that if Javonte Williams needs to be eased in following a catastrophic knee injury last season. Last year, Perine saw 51 targets and caught 38 of them for 287 yards on a limited snap share of 39%. He also managed to find the end zone six times, a good number for someone being used behind a lead back. While Williams is a good pass catcher, it's very difficult to envision him taking on a full workload only 11 months removed from tearing multiple ligaments in his knee, which would thrust Perine into a large role out of necessity right away. Perine has standalone value as Williams is highly unlikely to dominate touches coming off the injury, but he also has significant contingent value should Williams' knee not cooperate once the season gets going. Perine looks like an ideal zero-RB piece given his current ADP and potential workload.
Fantasy Downside
Perine is nearly 28 years old and has never operated as a lead back outside of games when Mixon suffered some sort of injury. He is a below-average athlete for the NFL level and would likely share the rushing workload with another back even if Williams missed time coming off the injury. Furthermore, Williams was not placed on the PUP list to start training camp and has been practicing with the team as if he will be ready to go for Week 1. If Williams is anywhere near 100% at the start of the season, Perine will largely be relegated to third-down duties and have to rely on receptions for most of his statistical production. Perine is an interesting player to draft given the uncertainty surrounding Williams' health, but a ton of his value is contingent on other players which is not ideal when drafting someone expected to start every week in fantasy.
2023 Bottom Line
Perine's 2023 fantasy value hinges in large part on how Williams does in his return from the injury suffered in Week 4 of last season. Perine will likely be a decent flex option to open the season as it is exceedingly difficult to imagine Williams getting anywhere near a full workload so soon after the injury. However, he brings real risk that his production will fade significantly over the course of the season. He gets a boost in PPR leagues, but Perine is probably best viewed as a RB4 for fantasy draft purposes.
Week 16 at New England Patriots
Samaje Perine got eight touches last week for 24 yards which will be the norm with a healthy Joe Mixon. Although he is still on the fantasy radar, the usage went down to 38% which will probably be what he sees each week.
Keep Perine on the bench because of the touches and a tough matchup on the road against a good Patriots run defense.
Week 15 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a good three-week run, Samaje Perine goes back to his role as second fiddle to Joe Mixon. Perine still got 43% of the snaps last week, but it only produced five touches for 24 yards. Mixon is expected to get back to his regular workload so Perine will probably be good for 7 to 9 touches.
Keep Perine on the bench for Week 15. The matchup is neutral and he won't get enough touches to warrant a start against Tampa.
Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns
With Joe Mixon a scratch again, Samaje Perine had one of the best fantasy weeks of any running back. He ended up with 27 touches for 155 yards, which also produced 100+ yards. The only thing he didn't do was score. Mixon practiced this week so Perine will probably return to his backup role.
The Bengals face the Browns who are ranked last in aFPA to running backs. Even as the second back, Perine has fantasy value and can help your team.
Start him as an RB3 and Flex for Week 14 in a favorable matchup. He should see 10+ touches even with Mixon back in the lineup.
