Week 4 vs. Houston Texans
Hines saw his snap count increase dramatically last week against Philadelphia, but that could have been a one-game case against a tough defensive line, and the Colts playing from behind without Marlon Mack active. In the past two weeks, no Colts RB has seen more than 12 touches in a game. Despite the Texans ranking only 25th in aFPA to RBs this season, this RBBC is hard to trust in starting lineups. Hines will likely need a touchdown or extreme efficiency in the passing game (which we haven't seen from him yet) to return value. He'll be even harder to trust if Marlon Mack is active. Mack practiced on a limited basis with a hamstring injury Wednesday and Thursday.
Week 3 at Philadelphia Eagles
In Marlon Mack's return from a hamstring injury, here's how the Colts' backfield snaps played out last week: Jordan Wilkins-39 percent, Nyheim Hines-39 percent, Marlon Mack-30 percent. Here's how the touches played out: Wilkins-12, Mack-11, Hines-5. This is a full-blown RB by committee, similar to the one Frank Reich used in Philadelphia last year. Until there is evidence to the contrary, you can't start any of these running backs with confidence. That goes double against an Eagles defensive line that is sixth in PPR RB points allowed, coming off a season where they were even better.
Week 2 at Washington Redskins
Marlon Mack may return from a hamstring injury in Week 2, throwing more ambiguity into this backfield situation, after Jordan Wilkins received 17 touches and Nyheim Hines saw 12 touches in Week 1. This feels like a full-blown running back by committee situation against a Washington defense that held David Johnson to just 4.0 yards per carry in Week 1. Washington was only 28th in aFPA to RBs last year, but not knowing how much work Hines will get makes it very hard to start him in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Marlon Mack (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday, but Nyheim Hines had an inefficient preseason that lacked ball security. He's far too risky of an option to deploy into any starting lineups Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
There's been a lot of buzz this offseason out of Indianapolis for this dual-threat fourth-round rookie. In addition to the Colts lining him up all over the field in OTAs, his pass protection is viewed as the best of this RB room with Frank Gore no longer with the Colts. Head coach Frank Reich had this to say about Hines: “One of the things that you have to have to have position versatility is high football intelligence. You have to be able to move and play a lot of positions and move around and play fast. (It’s) very evident that he’s very intelligent, besides being a 4.3 (40-yard dash) speed guy.”
Fantasy Downside
The Colts' new coaching staff has indicated this will be a full running back by committee (RBBC), but with Gore gone and Robert Turbin now suspended four games, the question will be whether it's a two- or three-man RBBC. It's clear Hines will play this season, but will he be used in a fantasy-relevant volume role like Darren Sproles or more like the name coaches keep comparing him to, Dexter McCluster?
2018 Bottom Line
Hines' solid pass protection may be the key to unlocking high snap counts this season. The Colts lacking a reliable No. 2 WR could also mean the Colts spread him out wide often. This is a rookie satellite back worth taking a chance on in fantasy drafts this season in PPR leagues, especially at his 14th-round ADP.
