Week 4 vs. Houston Texans
Despite the Texans ranking only 25th in aFPA to RBs this season, this RBBC is hard to trust in starting lineups. Marlon Mack practiced on a limited basis with a hamstring injury Wednesday and Thursday, but even with him out of the mix last week, no Colts RB saw more than 12 touches. That's not a recipe for fantasy success.
Week 3 at Philadelphia Eagles
In Marlon Mack's return from a hamstring injury, here's how the Colts' backfield snaps played out last week: Jordan Wilkins-39 percent, Nyheim Hines-39 percent, Marlon Mack-30 percent. Here's how the touches played out: Wilkins-12, Mack-11, Hines-5. This is a full-blown RB by committee, similar to the one Frank Reich used in Philadelphia last year. Until there is evidence to the contrary, you can't start any of these running backs with confidence. That goes double against an Eagles defensive line that is sixth in PPR RB points allowed, coming off a season where they were even better.
Week 2 at Washington Redskins
Marlon Mack may return from a hamstring injury in Week 2, throwing more ambiguity into this backfield situation, after Jordan Wilkins received 17 touches and Nyheim Hines saw 12 touches in Week 1. This feels like a full-blown running back by committee situation against a Washington defense that held David Johnson to just 4.0 yards per carry in Week 1. Washington was only 28th in aFPA to RBs last year, but not knowing how much work Mack will get makes it very hard to start him in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Marlon Mack (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday. It's a good matchup, as the Bengals were just 27th in aFPA to RBs last season). Vegas has set the over/under in this game at 48, the fifth-highest total of opening weekend; however, even if Mack plays, he's likely to be eased back into the offense. This appears to be a full committee to start the season. Keep Mack on your bench.
Fantasy Upside
Mack showed exciting breakaway ability in his rookie season on limited touches. Of his 93 carries, seven went for 15+ yards. He is also cleared for the start of training camp after recovering from a shoulder injury this offseason. The Colts adding mauling Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson doesn't hurt either. Frank Gore's departure opens up 290 carries, creating a massive opportunity for Mack to emerge.
Fantasy Downside
The Colts' new coaching staff has indicated this will be a full running back by committee (RBBC), but with Gore gone and Robert Turbin now suspended four games, the question will be whether it's a two- or three-man RBBC. Mack did have breakaway runs last year, but he also had 30 of his 93 carries go for zero or negative yardage. Coaches hate that kind of dancing behind the line of scrimmage. His pass protection is also in question.
2018 Bottom Line
Mack is a legitimate sleeper but will have to fight off rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins for volume. He's being drafted outside the top 24 of running backs in the middle rounds and is a gamble potentially worth taking in an Andrew Luck offense with an upgraded run blocking offensive line. His 10.7 yards per reception production from last season also makes him attractive in PPR formats at his price.
Week 17 vs. Houston Texans
Remember when these two teams were slugging it out for the AFC South crown in recent years? Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Colts are actually a 5.5-point favorite in this game with a respectable implied team total in Vegas of more than 22 points. Those are two factors in Frank Gore's favor. But not in Marlon Mack's, as he's just not getting enough volume his rookie year to be viable for fantasy.
Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
The Colts have the lowest implied team total in Vegas for Week 16 in this Saturday game against the Ravens on the road at 13.5 points. It's more than two full points lower than the next worst team. Plus, the Colts have averaged a brutal 12.6 points per game during their five-game losing streak. Even on a Thursday night after a blizzard road overtime game where Frank Gore saw more than 30 carries, Marlon Mack still only saw 6 carries last week. Don't even think about starting him.
Week 15 vs. Denver Broncos
The Colts played on the road, in a blizzard, and now have a short week to prepare to face the Broncos defense. No problem! Sheesh. Did we mention 34-year-old Frank Gore also had to carry the ball 36 times in that game? With a short week, it's probably highly likely Marlon Mack gets extra work this week. On paper, the matchup is good, though, as Denver is just 27th in aFPA to RBs this year. However, they are top-10 in overall points allowed to the position in the past four weeks. With nothing but hope Mack gets more work, he's far too risky to play outside of a contrarian DFS play in Week 15. However, monitor Frank Gore's status, as he did not practice Tuesday with a hand injury.
Week 14 at Buffalo Bills
The forecast calls for snow in the afternoon and sustained winds of 18 miles per hour. Not exactly what you're looking for if you have a struggling offense like the Colts. If it's hard to pass though, that means more touches for the backfield, and the Bills have allowed the most rushing yards in the league over the past four weeks. However, in the fantasy playoffs, are you really going to start a rookie who has just 13 touches over the past two weeks? We didn't think so. Marlon Mack is not a starting option.
Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are ranked just 17th in aFPA vs. RBs this season and, overall, are 18th in PPR points allowed to the position. On paper, not a bad matchup for a running back; however, the Colts offense has an implied team total of just 15.75 points. Only the Browns are lower in Week 13. Plus, Mack is coming off three straight games with fewer than 10 touches. He's not a viable starter.
