Week 13 vs. Miami
Kenneth Dixon had 13 carries and four receptions last week for a total of 80 yards from scrimmage. Most importantly, he was on the field for 46% of the team’s offensive snaps, compared to only 34% for Terrance West. While Dixon has already earned the job on passing downs, the team has been slow to insert him into the starting lineup as the main back, and West still got 13 carries as well. It’s a good sign to see Dixon so active in the offense though.
This week, Dixon faces a Miami run defense that ranks in the bottom three in rushing yards allowed per game, but is tied for 11th with only eight rushing touchdowns given up all season. Regardless of the matchup, Dixon’s value is really dependent on how much work he gets though, which is always going to be a question as long as West continues getting two-down work. He’s a risky RB3 with upside this week, with a little extra value in PPR formats.
Week 12 vs. Cincinnati
Kenneth Dixon had 40 yards on six carries last week against the Cowboys. He remains a high upside player with potential if he gets a larger workload, but Terrance West remains the starter and primary two-down back in Baltimore. Dixon seems to do well during the same weeks that West does, and vice versa, making it hard to figure out if he’s actually the better runner or not.
This week, Dixon has some low-end RB3 upside in large leagues against a Bengals defense that doesn’t allow a lot of scoring to RBs, but gives up the fifth most rushing yardage per game in the league. He’s too risky to count on, but should still be rostered in case he can finally wrestle away the job from West.
Week 11 vs. Dallas
Kenneth Dixon had only six carries last week against the Browns for 38 yards, but he wound up with 42 receiving yards on five receptions and was targeted seven times. This is a great sign for fantasy owners who have been stashing the rookie back, as it appears he at least has a role in the passing game, even if he doesn’t gain the starting job outright.
This week, he’ll likely continue to be on the field about a third of the time and should be used on third downs since starter Terrance West doesn’t offer much in the passing game. However, he’s facing the Cowboys, who are tied for the least amount of rushing touchdowns allowed this year and rank third in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. With Dixon splitting touches and a tough matchup on the schedule, he should be considered a low-end RB3 option in PPR leagues.
Week 10 vs. Cleveland
Kenneth Dixon stole some carries last week from Terrance West, getting 11 touches (including a pair of receptions), but he only wound up with 13 yards on the day and averaged a pitiful 1.4 yards per carry. West didn’t do any better, but still got the bulk of the workload.
This week, Dixon has some low-end RB3 potential in large leagues due to a matchup against the Browns. Cleveland has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game this season, and if the Ravens get up early like Dallas did last week, both West and Dixon could be in for a full workload. The Cowboys were able to give a total of 35 carries to their starting and backup RBs combined. If things get out of hand early on Thursday night, Dixon could benefit. He’s very risky, but has some deep sleeper ability.
Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh
Kenneth Dixon is healthy, but has had a hard time getting touches in three weeks back on the game day roster. He’s waiting in the wings for Terrance West to lose his job, but with the exception of the Jets game, West has been productive since taking over the starting job full time earlier this season. Dixon might earn a role and he has stash value as a result, but he’s too risky to count on and fantasy owners should leave him on the bench until he starts getting a larger share of the snap count.
Week 4 vs. Oakland
Rookie fourth-round pick Kenneth Dixon might make his season debut this week after missing the first three weeks of the season. Justin Forsett and Terrance West have both looked underwhelming running the ball for Baltimore this season, which might open the door for Dixon to take over soon. His status is still uncertain right now, and even if he does play, it’s unclear how much work he’ll get with Forsett and West still in the mix. But he should be added in all leagues as a potential breakout player.
If you’re desperate, and Dixon is cleared to go, he does have potential against an Oakland defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards this season. If he plays early and well, there’s always a chance the Ravens lean on him. He's probably too risky to start for most leagues though at this point, even if he's active.
Fantasy Upside
Rookie fourth-round pick Kenneth Dixon will get every opportunity to challenge starter Justin Forsett and sophomore Javorius Allen for playing time this year. Dixon was a productive runner in college who had 19 rushing touchdowns last season for Louisiana Tech. He runs with a nice blend of speed and power, and was one of the best tackle-breaking backs in the draft. If he can win the job and get some protection up front, Dixon could be in line for a productive rookie season.
Fantasy Downside
Forsett should remain entrenched as the starter as long as he’s healthy following last year’s broken arm. Additionally, while Dixon did catch 64 balls over the last two years, Javorius Allen is already an accomplished receiver out of the backfield, making third down touches hotly contested in the Ravens offense. Dixon also may show a tendency to dance around in the backfield and will need to become a more decisive runner if he’s going to stand a chance to win playing time.
2016 Bottom Line
Dixon has a good chance of making an impact if he can win time, but he’s just as likely to finish his rookie year with minimal touches, making him a big fantasy risk. He’s being drafted in rounds 10-12 right now, which is probably a bit high for a player in a crowded backfield, but if you can get him towards the end of your draft as a risk-reward option, then the payoff could be worthwhile.
Update:
With Forsett not making the final 53-man roster, Dixon is a step closer to playing time. However, his value remains primarily in dynasty leagues as Terrance West seems to have the inside track on the starting job.
