Week 3 at Dallas Cowboys
Kalen Ballage made small improvements from Week 1. Instead of finishing with negative rushing yards, he finished with six. On four carries. He also saw five targets in the passing game, but caught just one of those (for six yards) while ducking at another. Ballage has 24 scrimmage yards on the season and is averaging less than a yard per run. Please don't play him in your fantasy leagues.
Week 2 vs. New England Patriots
Kalen Ballage led the team in carries in Week 1 with five, but finished with a negative yard. He also wasn't much of a factor in the passing game, catching just one pass for 13 yards. He was on the field enough to make him a name worth monitoring in fantasy, but until he manages to gain positive yards on the ground, it's probably best to leave him on the bench, or on the waiver wire.
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Kalen Ballage may be behind Kenyan Drake on the depth chart, but he should have a solid role for Miami this season. He wasn't used much a year ago despite some success (averaged 5.3 ypc on 36 attempts). He doesn't get a great matchup, though, as Baltimore allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs in 2018. Ballage isn't a strong fantasy option this week as we project him to finish under 50 scrimmage yards with a low chance for a score.
Fantasy Upside
Kalen Ballage had a huge game last season in Week 15 when he ran for 123 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. The fourth-round draft pick saw limited playing time, but looked good late in the season when he had opportunities. With Frank Gore gone, we expect Ballage to have a larger role than he had for most of 2018.
Fantasy Downside
Ballage is the clear backup to Kenyan Drake heading into 2019. Even with increased playing time, it’s difficult to see how he’s able to make enough of an impact to become fantasy relevant this season. He’s the backup rusher on what’s expected to be one of the worst offenses in the league.
2019 Bottom Line
Ballage isn’t much more than a handcuff to Drake. He’s a talented back, but we like Drake a lot more and expect him to get the majority of the touches in 2019. Ballage will be worth adding this season if Drake suffers an injury and misses time, but otherwise, he holds little fantasy relevance.
Week 17 at Buffalo Bills
Miami goes to cold Buffalo with nothing to play for in Week 17 (except maybe its head coach). The Dolphins have a miserable implied team total of just 17.5 points as 4.5-point underdogs. With Ryan Tannehill posting fewer than 15 combined fantasy points over the past two weeks, no player involved in this passing game is worthy of starting consideration in Week 17 against a tough Bills secondary. Despite that, even the Dolphins run game is risky due to Adam Gase's RBBC. This appears to be a run funnel offense, with Buffalo ranked 29th in aFPA to RBs. If there's one player to start in this offense, it would be Kenyan Drake in PPR leagues. Kalen Ballage is just a dart throw FLEX option.
Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Dolphins host the Jaguars in a game with a brutally low over/under of just 38 points, second-lowest on the Week 16 slate. Despite being 3.5-point favorites, Miami still only has an implied team total of 20.75 points. The Jaguars rank 10th in aFPA to RBs, and with Frank Gore out for the year now, Kalen Ballage will get the opportunity to be the early-down back against Jacksonville. However, Kenyan Drake splitting the work still keeps this backfield status quo from a fantasy standpoint. Both are risky FLEX options for all the stated reasons in Week 16.
Week 1 vs. Tennessee Titans
Kalen Ballage is firmly behind Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore in the Dolphins backfield. The only fantasy factor he could have is eating into Drake's volume. He's not a starting lineup consideration.
Fantasy Upside
The Dolphins spent a late-fourth-round pick on Ballage in the 2018 NFL Draft, and the rookie out of Arizona State has good speed for his 228-pound frame.
Fantasy Downside
Ballage did not have a good SPARQ-x score for his size, showing his strength for his frame should be better than it is. This feels like a situation where Ballage has some work to do to get his body right for the NFL. That could mean he could be a project at this level. There's also speculation Ballage didn't put in the work his coaches wanted at the college level. With two established backs in front of him in Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore, it will be hard for Ballage to get fantasy-relevant touches in 2018.
2018 Bottom Line
Monitor this backfield in the preseason, but it's unlikely Ballage will be a consideration in redraft leagues in 2018.
