Fantasy Upside
In the Chargers' best-case scenario, Justin Jackson will serve as their RB3 behind Melvin Gordon and change-of-pace specialist Austin Ekeler. But with Gordon's status uncertain due to an ongoing contract dispute (which has the starter planning to hold out until he gets a new deal), Jackson becomes of greater fantasy interest. Remember, he was very productive in wins over the Steelers (Week 13) and Kansas City (Week 15), scoring double-digit PPR points in both games.
Fantasy Downside
Again, if all goes well, Jackson will be option three here, a role that will be minimal.
2019 Bottom Line
The interest here will be based almost entirely on Gordon's status. Those looking to throw a late-round flier Jackson's way could be rewarded. But barring favorable (for Jackson) resolution, his value will be as minimal as his role.
Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)
Los Angeles hosts Baltimore on a short week with a chance to get its offense back to full strength, with the return of Melvin Gordon and possibly Keenan Allen. This game has a low over/under of 43.5 points, with the Chargers having an implied total of 23.75, lower than recent weeks against a strong Baltimore defense. The Ravens rank second in aFPA to RBs this season. If active, you're always starting Melvin Gordon. But if active, you cannot start any other Chargers RB.
Week 14 at Kansas City Chiefs (Thursday)
In a huge divisional showdown on Thursday night, the Chargers and Chiefs have the second highest over/under on the Week 15 slate, with Los Angeles still with an above average 24.75 implied total despite being road underdogs. The Chiefs rank just 28th in aFPA to RBs. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are expected to be out, clearing the way for Justin Jackson to lead this backfield in a plus match-up. Ensure Gordon is inactive, but if he is, volume and match-up dictate Jackson is a high upside RB2 in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers face one of, if not, the worst defenses in the league at this point in the season this week. Los Angeles has an implied team total of 31 points. Only the Saints implied total is higher. The Bengals are dead last in aFPA to RBs. This all sounds perfect for Chargers backs, but we have a curve ball this week. With Melvin Gordon out and the coaching staff saying Austin Ekeler is fatigued from having to play special teams and early downs, we expect Justin Jackson to take over on early downs, with Ekeler going back to his change of pace role. In a prime match-up, both are FLEX options with Jackson more valuable in standard and Ekeler retaining PPR value.
Week 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers have an average implied team total of just over 24 points this week, but with negative game script expected as a road underdog, and Melvin Gordon out this week with a knee injury, Austin Ekeler should step into an RB1 opportunity in Week 13. In the one game Gordon missed this season, Ekeler scored 11.8 PPR points despite the Chargers playing a season-low 44 offensive snaps, with Ekeler seeing 17 touches and playing 96 percent of snaps. That doesn't leave enough for Justin Jackson to warrant any type of starting status in Week 13.
