Week 2 vs. San Francisco
Jonathan Stewart had a full workload against Denver last week with 15 carries, but he only had 64 yards against a tough defense. As usual, his production was affected by Cam Newton stealing away a touchdown run from him. Stewart remains a steady option in most leagues, but his lack of goal line work often limits his upside.
This week, expect a similar workload with a little more room to run against the 49ers. San Francisco looked better on defense against the Rams on Monday night than they did last season – holding Todd Gurley to only 2.8 yards per carry – but they won’t be able to load eight guys in the box all game against Cam Newton and the Panthers offense. Stewart should be good for solid RB2 numbers.
Week 1 at Denver
Jonathan Stewart had a nice finish to the 2015 season as the primary ball carrier for the Panthers. He had three of his six touchdowns in the last five weeks of the regular season and then scored three more touchdowns in the playoffs. Stewart has always been injury prone, but he enters this season healthy and without any challengers to top back status.
This might not be his best week, however. He was held to 2.4 yards per carry against the Broncos in the Super Bowl, and Denver held opposing rushers to a mere 3.3 yards per carry last season (which was tops in the league). Based purely off volume, Stewart should still approach RB2 numbers this week. We have him just inside our top-25, but he has limited upside in a tough matchup to start the season.
Fantasy Upside
Jonathan Stewart finished last season strong, with over 20 attempts in eight of his last nine regular season games. The Panthers made him the primary ball carrier after years of sharing time with DeAngelo Williams, and that should continue this year as well. The Panther offensive line is still a work in progress, but guard Trai Turner looks like a keeper after a strong rookie season, and Ryan Kalil remains one of the best centers in the game. Under offensive coordinator Mike Shula, the Panthers have never ranked below eighth in rushing attempts and have been a top-five team in red zone rushing percentage since he took over three years ago. As long as he’s healthy, Stewart has a high floor as a starting fantasy back.
Fantasy Downside
Stewart has always struggled with nagging injuries that sometimes hobble him, and often force him to miss games. He missed three starts last year, and he’s still recovering from hurting his foot in the Super Bowl, although he’s participating fully in early camps and should be ready to go for the season. The Panthers run the ball a lot in the red zone, but they also give a ton of those carries to the fullback position and to quarterback Cam Newton. Quarterbacks and fullbacks have received 60 percent of the team’s carries inside the five-yard-line since Shula was hired, meaning that a lot of Stewart’s touchdown opportunities get vulture away from him.
2016 Bottom Line
With a history of injuries, Stewart is a risky player to bank on at his current ADP in the fourth or fifth round. He’s a high volume back when he’s on the field, making him a solid RB2 in all league formats, but the risks associated with him make a fifth round price tag in most leagues a bit too high. He’s also unlikely to get healthier and more productive at age 29, when most runners tend to be on the downside of their careers.
Super Bowl vs. Denver
Jonathan Stewart had a decent enough game against the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry in a blowout victory for the Panthers, and he ended up with 88 total yards from scrimmage, including five yards on a pair of receptions. While these aren’t big numbers he’s the only running back left in the playoffs who is likely to get a full workload.
This week, he’ll face a tough Denver defense that allowed only 3.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers, best in the NFL during the 2015 regular season. The Broncos did a good job holding the Patriot’s running backs to only 31 yards rushing in the AFC Championship Game and just over two yards per carry. Stewart will struggle to put up big numbers against this stingy opponent, but he’s likely to get 15-20 carries again, making him the top fantasy running back option in the Super Bowl.
NFC Championship vs. Arizona
Jonathan Stewart had a great game against the Seahawks’ league leading run defense last week, putting up 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a Carolina victory. Stewart seemed well rested after missing the last couple of contests of the year, and he ran with the type of purpose and power that differentiates him from other runners.
This week, Stewart should be in for another full workload against the Cardinals and their sixth ranked run defense. Arizona has been stout on the defensive side of the ball, but the presence of Cam Newton and the Panthers’ commitment to running the football should allow Stewart to still end up a solid fantasy option in all leagues. He’s also one of only two backs this weekend guaranteed to get a full workload, making him a top two option for fantasy owners, regardless of the matchup.
Week 19 vs. Seattle
Jonathan Stewart sat out the last couple games of the regular season, but finished the year eighth in the NFL in rushing with 989 yards. He also had six touchdowns and was able to set a career high with 242 carries. The Panthers will be hoping he can come back strong for their divisional matchup against the Seahawks, a team that held him to a 3.9 yard average early in the season, but let him score a pair of touchdowns in route to a narrow Panther victory.
The Seahawks allowed the least amount of rushing yards to opposing teams this year, but they gave up a modest 10 rushing touchdowns on the season and Stewart should get a full workload providing he’s active on the day. Fantasy owners should be sure to monitor the injury report for his status, but if he’s good to go, he should be a solid option in all league formats and is a top five back on our list this week.
Week 14 vs. Atlanta
So much for reducing his workload. Jonathan Stewart had 21 carries and three receptions last week for 113 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown as the Panthers defeated the division rival Saints to extend their record to 12-0 on the season. Stewart is the bell cow in Carolina and has been productive despite a lackluster offensive line.
This week, Stewart faces a Falcons run defense that ranks 12th in the league in yards allowed this year, but have given up more rushing touchdowns on the season than every team except Detroit. Expect Stewart to have another good day against the Falcons, with a full workload and a high probability for finding the end zone.
Week 13 vs. New Orleans
Jonathan Stewart had only 77 total yards from scrimmage last week against a tough Dallas defense, but he touched the ball 24 times on the day and he continues to be a workhorse for the Carolina offense. The Panthers will continue to lean on him as long as he stays healthy, and fantasy owners should be able to count on him for continually strong workloads week-to-week.
This week, Stewart should have an easier time against a vulnerable New Orleans defense. Only three other teams are allowing more rushing yards per game to opposing offenses than the Saints, and they rank dead last in the league in yards allowed per rushing attempt. Expect a full workload against a better matchup for Stewart, and we have him as a top-10 option in all league formats.
Week 12 at Dallas
Jonathan Stewart is quietly fifth in the NFL in rushing yardage and he had a nice game last week against Washington, putting up 102 yards on 21 carries, and adding a 12 yard touchdown reception to his totals. While Stewart occasionally loses out on the goal line to Mike Tolbert and/or Cam Newton, he’s still been a fairly consistent fantasy option, especially in recent weeks.
On Thanksgiving, Stewart will face a pretty good Dallas defense. However, the Cowboys have been better defending the pass than the run this season, and they’ve given up 10 rushing touchdowns on the year. Stewart should be in for another full workload, which should translate into a nice outing for the veteran. He should be started as a solid RB2 in all league formats.
Week 11 vs. Washington
Jonathan Stewart had 91 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries against the Titans last week, as the Panthers remained undefeated on the season. After a slow start to the season, Stewart is now seventh in the NFL in rushing yards this season and he’s been a workhorse all year, with only Adrian Peterson having more carries.
This week, Stewart has a great matchup against a Washington run defense that is dead-last in the league in yards allowed per rushing attempt. Expect Carolina to continue to give Stewart a full workload and for the Panthers to try to win with defense and a solid running game, as they’ve done all season. We have Stewart inside our top-15 this week, and he’s a great RB2 in all formats.
