Week 15 vs. New Orleans
J.J. Nelson is a big play waiting to happen. He had two touches last week, a 56-yard touchdown run and an eight-yard touchdown reception. While I wouldn’t expect multiple touchdowns each week from Nelson, he should have opportunities with the recent release of Michael Floyd and the ongoing health struggles of John Brown.
This week, Nelson has some long-shot upside against a Saints team that gives up the fourth most passing yards per game and tied for the second most yards per attempt. Nelson is a boom-bust option, but if you’re desperate, the matchup opportunity is there for him to catch another bomb.
Week 10 vs. San Francisco
J.J. Nelson has been very good his last couple of games as the Cardinals have dealt with nagging injuries at the WR2/WR3 spots. He had 84 yards against the Seahawks in Week 7, and then followed that up with eight catches, 79 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Panthers before the bye last week. He’s a big play waiting to happen and the Cardinals seem like they’re trying to get him more active in the passing game.
This week, he has an excellent matchup against a struggling 49ers defense that has allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns in the league this year. Nelson has risk associated with him because the Cardinals have so many weapons, but he’s not a bad low-end WR3 option with upside in most leagues. The other danger is that the Cardinals get up early and run the ball the entire second half, but Nelson is worth considering if you need a high upside WR.
Week 8 at Carolina
J.J. Nelson filled in for the injured John Brown last week and made a huge play in overtime, catching a 44-yard pass to set up a chance for a winning field goal – it’s not Nelson’s fault the kicker missed. He ended up with only three catches for 84 yards, but he was targeted seven times.
This week, John Brown is supposed to be back, but it’s not a sure thing. Additionally, Michael Floyd is banged up, so there’s a chance for Nelson to get a lot of snaps. If one or both of Brown and Floyd miss the game, then Nelson could be a sneaky good WR2 option in large leagues since he’s facing a Carolina pass defense that is tied for the sixth most passing yards per game and gave up four touchdown passes to Drew Brees in Week 6.
Fantasy Upside
As NFL.com recently noted, J.J. Nelson has drawn considerable praise this offseason. Head coach Bruce Arians has talked up the speedster as well. Nelson played well in a limited role last season, compiling 299 yards on just 11 receptions (27.2 yards per catch) and two touchdowns. Nelson appears as No. 24 on Football Outsiders’ top-25 breakout prospects of 2016.
Fantasy Downside
The knock on Nelson is he's small at 5-10, 160 pounds, and he's the perfect candidate to flash in padless spring practices. Not only must Nelson carry over his offseason performances onto the training camp field with the pads on, but he'll need to leap someone on the depth chart as well.
2016 Bottom Line
The Cardinals have one of the top receiver groups in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown are all ahead of Nelson in the pecking order. Floyd is on the last year of his contract and Fitzgerald enters the twilight of his career, so Nelson might be best viewed as a stash-and-hold dynasty player. That said, Arizona's offense is certainly prolific enough to support multiple wideouts.
NFC Championship at Carolina
J.J. Nelson caught the only pass thrown his way last week, gaining eight yards on the day. This week, he’ll face a Carolina defense that is missing their number two and number three corners and may be vulnerable to sub-package receivers. However, Nelson is relegated to fourth on the depth chart and is a long shot to put up big numbers. Because of his speed, he has a little value as an all or nothing fantasy prospect, but most owners should look to a safer option than the rookie speedster.
Week 19 vs. Green Bay
J.J. Nelson was hit or miss this season, hitting big when he hit, and netting zero when he didn’t. He’s one of the fastest players in football, but as the fourth receiver on the Arizona depth chart, he’s unlikely to put up big numbers in any given week, making him a highly risky option for fantasy owners this weekend. Owners looking of an utter boom/bust prospect might throw a casual glance in Nelson’s way, but generally speaking, he’s not a legitimate option.
Week 15 at Philadelphia
J.J. Nelson has been targeted a few times recently on deep balls in the Arizona offense, but he’s really been an all-or-nothing fantasy option, especially with all three receivers ahead of him on the depth chart healthy and active. Nelson is a home run threat and has the potential to catch a long bomb at any time, but it’s too risky for fantasy owners to bank on that type of production week-to-week. He should remain on waivers in most leagues.
Fantasy Upside
Last year, John Brown became an offseason sensation. As NFL.com notes, the wideout nicknamed "Smoke," because of his speed now has a tagalong this training camp in rookie J.J. Nelson (who HC Bruce Arians has come to call "Fire"). Nelson ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at the combine, faster than Brown's 4.34. The question is whether Nelson can pick up the scheme and routes as fast as Brown did last year. So far, teammates like his progresses. Said QB Carson Palmer: "He may be real quiet and reserved, but I think he's got a little swag to him now. I think he's kind of realizing, 'Maybe I can play with these guys. Maybe I'm not too small. Maybe I'm not too skinny,' all the knocks you get as you're coming into the draft and all the negative things that come up about yourself when you're from a small school."
Fantasy Downside
Size and the players above him on the depth chart will be the major challenges for Nelson.
Bottom Line
Despite his small stature, speed still rules the NFL. And Michael Floyd's recent hand injury certainly opens the door for more reps for the Nelson this preseason. Now he has to take advantage of the opportunity. He probably shouldn't be more than a small blip on your redraft radar at this point, but he is worth watching.
