Week 15 vs. Tennessee Titans
Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown last week with 1 interception in his second start with the 49ers and has solidified himself as San Francisco's starter moving forward—provided the 49ers can sign him after the season. He'll be tested against Tennessee's secondary and blitz package but should produce as a QB2 this week.
Week 14 at Houston Texans
Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 293 yards but also threw an interception and failed to throw a TD pass in his first start with the 49ers. Houston has had some truly atrocious games against opposing quarterbacks, but those have come against QBs who have weapons, talent, or both. Garoppolo could put up some decent numbers in this game but there are far better options available.
Week 13 at Chicago Bears
Jimmy Garoppolo stepped in late last week and threw for 18 yards and a touchdown after C.J. Beathard was injured. But Chicago's defense won't be an easy nut to crack. Garoppolo will get his first 49ers start this week but there's no way he should be in your lineup unless you're absolutely desperate. Even then, he shouldn't be in your lineup.
Week 4 vs. Buffalo
Both Garoppolo and Brissett were seen throwing at practice on Wednesday, but the Patriots have not yet named a starter. Whoever is behind center in Week 4 has a nice matchup against a Bills team that has really struggled to get to the quarterback (with sacks on just 4.43 percent of snaps over the past 12 months). If it is indeed Garoppolo under center, he is nothing more than a low-end QB2 against the Bills, who rank near the middle of the league in QB aFPA.
Week 2 vs. Miami
Jimmy Garoppolo was 24-33 for 264 yards with 1 TD, no interceptions, in a 23-21 victory over the Cardinals in Week 1, adding 12 rushing yards on 4 carries. Garoppolo comes into a Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins after a solid Week 1 win after boasting a 95.1% passer rating and 66.7% completion percentage in the preseason. The Patriots team total is hovering around 24.5. In the place of Tom Brady, Garoppolo will need to continue to play efficiently as a home favorite, but will not be asked to do thing outside his capabilities. He is is a low-end QB2 against the Dolphins, who rank in the bottom half of the league in QB aFPA.
Week 1 at Arizona
Jimmy Garoppolo comes into a Week 1 matchup against the Cardinals with a 95.1 percent passer rating and 66.7 percent completion percentage in the preseason. Garoppolo has yet to start a regular season NFL game, and the Patriots team total is hovering around 20. In the place of Tom Brady, Garoppolo will need to play well as the road underdog, but will not be asked to do thing outside his capabilities. He is is a low-end QB2 against the Cardinals, who rank in the top half of the league in QB aFPA.
Fantasy Upside
Patriots second-string quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will get an opportunity start for the first four games of the season with Tom Brady’s suspension. He is a player who has leaned heavily on check-down plays in the past and has no shortage of elite weapons to throw to such as Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, and Julian Edelman. The Patriots will ask Garoppolo to play a high-percentage game and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. This may be more than enough to make him a streamer option to start the season.
Fantasy Downside
Garoppolo has been up and down in the preseason since he entered the league and really has no meaningful experience as a starter. He will start Week 1 on the road against the Arizona Cardinals and then gets Miami at home in Week 2, a team that was sixth in the NFL in sacks last season. He also gets both the Houston and Buffalo defenses before Brady’s return in Week 5. Though we don’t expect the Patriots to completely turn into a run-heavy team to protect their quarterback inefficiencies, it is possible Garoppolo will be asked to much less as far as taking chances.
2016 Bottom Line
Garoppolo has thrown a below average 6.9 yards per attempt in his preseason action competing just 76.2 percent of his passes. He could be a viable streamer if you are desperate, but you could do better from a matchups perspective in the first few weeks of the season.
Fantasy Upside
Jimmy Garoppolo will start any games Tom Brady does not. With Brady currently suspended for the first four game of the season, that gives Garoppolo four games at the helm of the elite offensive team that the Patriots can be.
Fantasy Downside
Garoppolo has little real-NFL experience. Even prorated for 16 games, our four game projection for him would only put him around QB28. We're not sure how much upside there is here -- even in the four games he will start.
Bottom Line
Even with the suspension to starting QB Tom Brady, we suggest ignoring Garoppolo in your fantasy drafts.
Week 17 vs Bills
With the Patriots having already cliched the #1 seed and home field advantage, it's possible we'll see some of the second round pick this weekend. It's impossible to predict how much he'll play, and the Bills are allowing the 2nd least aFPA to opposing QBs. Garoppolo should not be viewed as a sneaky start, in Week 17.
Jimmy has won the battle to be Brady's backup. A lot of ladies should rejoice at this news, as Brady/Garoppolo would likely be the best looking starter/backup QB tandem in the league.
