Week 2 vs. New York Giants
James Conner gained 70 yards from scrimmage last week against the Commanders on 14 carries and five receptions. It’s always good to see your running back receive 20 touches in a loss, however, making Conner an intriguing buy-low option moving forward.
The Giants almost have to be better than they were last week when they were destroyed by the Cowboys, but they still gave up 70 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Tony Pollard on just 14 carries. If the Cardinals can keep the game relatively close, expect a full workload with solid results for Conner, who we have ranked as a quality RB2 for Week 2.
Week 1 at Washington Commanders
James Conner is productive when he’s healthy. He has 26 touchdowns in 28 games as a member of the Cardinals, and he finished last season with 782 rushing yards in 13 games. He’s the unquestioned starter on the depth chart and he contributes in the passing game as well. He caught 46 balls last year.
Conner has a really tough matchup to start the season. The Commanders were second in the league in aFPA to opposing running backs last year. Game script may also be an issue for the veteran, as the Cardinals aren’t expected to be very competitive, especially with Kyler Murray out for an extended period of time. We like Conner’s potential for volume and status on the depth chart, but we worry about the offense around him. Consider him a fringe-RB2 option this week.
Fantasy Upside
As Fantasy Pros put it, "When James Conner was healthy in 2022, it was hard to argue with his elite production and role in the Arizona Cardinals offense." Indeed, 4for4's John Paulsen notes from Week 10 to Week 17, he was the fantasy RB5, averaging 21.3 touches for 102 total yards and 1.0 touchdown per game. He also played over 90 percent of the team's offensive snaps in five different games. Adding to the positive vibe, this isn't Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid offense anymore. New coach Jonathan Gannon hired a first-time offensive coordinator in Drew Petzing whose work history leaves little for fantasy managers to go on. He's worked mainly with quarterbacks and receivers in Cleveland and Minnesota, but his former boss in each location, Kevin Stefanski, does like to run the ball.
Fantasy Downside
Conner missed four games entirely and left three other games early because of injuries last season. He just turned 28 and Fantasy Pros notes he didn’t fare particularly well in the yards after contact or tackle-breaking advanced metrics. But age and the "when healthy" caveat aren't the only concerns here. The Cardinals, a team that started the 2021 season 10-2, has come completely undone. So the coaching change, uncertainty surrounding Murray and the overall direction the team is going in need to be taken into account.
2023 Bottom Line
Without a timetable for Murray's return from his ACL injury and with DeAndre Hopkins gone, someone on this team needs to score the touchdowns, why not the guy with two seasons of double-digit TDs on his ledger? The Cardinals made no significant additions at the position in the draft and free agency, leaving Conner with a stranglehold on this backfield, and his ability as a receiver shouldn't be overlooked. Given the anticipated workload, Conner projects to be a very good value given his ADP.
Week 17 at Atlanta Falcons
James Conner found the end zone last week for the third straight game, and he finished with 120 yards on 22 touches, including seven receptions. Conner has been stellar since mid-season, scoring seven of his eight touchdowns over the past six games. He’s also racking up targets, with 20 over the last three outings.
This week, Conner has a pretty good matchup against the Falcons, who rank 19th in aFPA to opposing running backs. He’s a must-start, assuming he’s active after an illness left him out of practice on Wednesday. Keep an eye on the inactives, but if he’s good to go, we have him ranked as a solid RB1 option.
Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
James Conner had only 63 yards on 16 carries last week against the Broncos, but he caught three balls for 28 additional yards and he scored his seventh touchdown of the season. After a slow start to the year, Conner now has at least one touchdown in five straight games. This is what made him so good last year and is the reason fantasy managers drafted him for 2022.
Conner won’t have it easy against Tampa Bay this week. The Buccaneers rank 10th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Although, they may still be without run-stuffer Vita Vea, so that should help things. Conner’s workload and potential for a touchdown make him a solid RB1 option this week.
Week 15 at Denver Broncos
James Conner was one of the few bright spots for Arizona on a miserable Monday night against the Patriots that resulted in a loss and, most importantly, a devastating knee injury to Kyler Murray. Conner finished with 15 carries and six receptions for 114 total yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Conner has touchdowns in four straight games and seems to be heating up as the season winds down.
This week, Conner faces a Broncos defense that ranks 13th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Expect a busy day for Conner, especially with Kyler Murray out for the remainder of the season. His workload should lead to quality RB2 numbers, especially if he can find the end zone again. Start him.
Week 14 vs. New England Patriots
James Conner had a nice game against the Chargers before the bye last week, rushing for 120 yards on 25 carries. He also added 20 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. Conner has 16 targets over his last four games, and it’s good to see him staying active in the passing game.
This week, Conner has a tough matchup against New England. The Patriots rank second in aFPA to opposing running backs. Conner’s workload should make him a viable fantasy back this week, but temper expectations with the difficult opponent. We have him ranked as a low-end RB1 option with a good chance at finding the end zone. Start him.
Week 12 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
James Conner had only 42 yards on 14 carries in a blowout loss to the 49ers, but he found the end zone for the third time in two games and was targeted five times. He has 13 targets in the three games since returning from injury, raising his floor in PPR formats.
This week, Conner has a great matchup against the Chargers, who rank 30th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Expect a full workload for Conner and a decent shot at the end zone once again. We have him ranked as a solid RB2 option heading into Thanksgiving weekend, and he’s worth starting in all league formats.
Week 11 vs. San Francisco 49ers
James Conner found the end zone twice last week, his first touchdowns since Week 1. He finished the day with 69 yards on 21 carries, adding another three receptions and 17 yards. Conner’s usage is encouraging, but the efficiency is not. He averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and is averaging 3.8 on the season.
This week, Conner faces a tough 49ers defense that ranks second in aFPA to opposing running backs. Conner should be viewed as a low-end RB2 given his touchdown upside, but his lack of big-play ability limits his fantasy upside.
Week 10 at Los Angeles Rams
James Conner returned to action last week against the Seahawks, but he was limited to just seven carries and 45 yards on the ground. He added five receptions for 19 receiving yards, but it was still a down day for the veteran out of Pittsburgh.
Conner will try to get back on track this week against a pretty good Rams defense that ranks 13th in aFPA to opposing running backs. In a tough matchup, with Eno Benjamin stealing a few touches, it’s hard to recommend Conner as anything more than a flex option this week. We have him ranked just outside RB2 territory this week.
