Week 12 at Baltimore Ravens
The Raiders travel across the country as a double-digit underdog, tied for the lowest implied team total of Week 12 at just 16 points. Baltimore also ranks first in aFPA to RBs. Doug Martin was limited in practice to start the week with an ankle injury, increasing the chances Richard sees additional snaps, but regardless, don't expect the Raiders to get much going on the ground at all, given the match-up. Richard's ability in the passing game makes him the dart throw FLEX play in both standard and PPR leagues over a hobbled Martin.
Week 11 at Arizona Cardinals
The Raiders are so bad at this point in the season that Oakland is a 5.5-point underdog to a two-win team this week. The Raiders implied team total of 17.5 points is also the lowest on the slate this week by a full two points. That's not a recipe for fantasy success. The Cardinals are second in the league in aFPA to QBs but only 27th against RBs, potentially foreshadowing a run-heavy attack for Oakland this week. However, with negative game script also expected, this sets up well for Jalen Richard in PPR leagues to be a low-end RB2. He's averaging five receptions per game and double-digit PPR points since the Raiders Week 7 bye.
Week 10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Let's check in on the Raiders offense as they begin the second half of their season: 19th in total offense, 28th in scoring offense and 24th in rushing offense. The Jon Gruden era is going swimmingly so far. The Raiders also have one of the lowest implied team totals this week against Los Angeles. Doug Martin has double-digit carries in his last two games with Marshawn Lynch on IR, but he's not adding anything in the passing game with these negative game scripts Oakland keeps running into this year. Richard is the one providing the much safer floor in PPR formats. That makes Richard the much better FLEX option for Week 10, given his long track record of targets this season.
Week 9 at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday)
So what did the run game look like for Oakland without Marshawn Lynch? 15 touches on 56 percent of snaps for Doug Martin and 10 touches on 44 percent of snaps for Jalen Richard. Richard's touches will continue to come mostly in the passing game where Martin has taken over early-down work. There will be weeks where game script sinks Martin's fantasy value and helps Richard get more targets, but on paper, this is not one of them. San Francisco is just 19th in aFPA to RBs, and with the 49ers possibly starting a third-string quarterback, positive game flow is likely. That favors Martin over Richard. Richard is just a low-end FLEX for Week 9.
Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders come out of the bye week without their top running back, as Marshawn Lynch was placed on injured reserve with a groin injury. We feel Jalen Richard is a better option than Marshawn Lynch in PPR formats, given the Raiders likely negative game script situations. Richard is averaging more than five receptions per game, which should not be affected by Doug Martin seeing increased playing time. Oakland is a home underdog in Week 8, and without Amari Cooper (traded to Dallas), Carr is looking for any pass catcher he can find. Richard should be a decent FLEX/RB3 in Week 8.
Week 6 vs. Seattle Seahawks (London)
Jalen Richard is a deep league PPR dart throw some weeks, when Oakland is expected to trail for much of the game. In three of five games this season, where that has been the case, Richard has reception counts of nine, six and six. This game in London has an above average over/under with it expected to be a tight game, as Seattle is favored by less than three points. That means we should see far more Marshawn Lynch than Jalen Richard. Richard shouldn't be in lineups.
Week 5 at Los Angeles Chargers
Even in PPR leagues, Marshawn Lynch's usage in the Raiders offense is a wonderful thing. Three consecutive games of 20+ touches has made him a dependable fantasy asset, and this week he faces a Chargers defense that is just about league average in aFPA to RBs. There just hasn't been enough touches for other backs in this offense. Richard is nothing more than a handcuff at this point, who will get some passing down usage in games the Raiders dig themselves a big hole.
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Marshawn Lynch has entered bell cow mode with 20+ touches in consecutive weeks, leaving scraps for his teammates. Jalen Richard has six receptions or more in the two games Oakland got behind early, but that's not reliable production you can count on each week. Consider Richard only a desperation flex play in deep PPR leagues. Oakland is favored this week, which should lead to more positive game script and Lynch on the field.
Week 3 at Miami Dolphins
The Raiders have the dreaded cross-country, early eastern time zone kickoff Sunday in Miami. Las Vegas has taken note, too, as the Raiders have a low 20.5-point implied team total. Jalen Richard's Week 1 production appears to have been game specific, as his snaps decreased from 50 to 12 percent from Week 1 to Week 2. His touches decreased from 11 to two. Even in deep leagues, you can't start Richard in Week 3.
Week 2 at Denver Broncos
The Broncos were top-10 last season in aFPA to RBs. Denver was also top-10 in PPR points allowed to the RB position in Week 1. The Raiders have an implied team total under 20 points, which is very low by Vegas standards. Despite playing half the Week 1 snaps and getting 14 touches, Jalen Richard's role is not one you can count on week-to-week behind starter Marshawn Lynch. Richard should be benched in most leagues.
