Week 8 vs Chargers
Four straight games with a touchdown for Hunter Henry. Basically, if the Patriots are in the red zone, there's a good chance Henry is getting six. Sure, he now has six games with less than 50 yards, but this offense is so spread out. Plus, tight ends are volatile anyway. Henry is actually one of the more consistent tight ends out there lately. With Jonnu Smith still limited, Henry will continue to get more work and could score again against our No. 26-ranked matchup defense against tight ends.
Week 7 vs Jets
Despite only seeing two targets and his lowest yardage total this season, Hunter Henry scored a touchdown for the third straight game. When New England gets deep into opponent territory, Mac Jones is looking for Henry. Henry has clearly overtaken Jonnu Smith as TE1 in New England and is a top ten option against the Jets, a team he had 42 yards on two catches against in Week 2.
Week 6 vs Cowboys
It seems as if Hunter Henry has broken the logjam among the Patriots' TEs. That's two straight weeks with a touchdown as he led the way with 75 yards for New England in their comeback win over the Texans. Mac Jones seems very comfortable now with Henry and he has moved into top-10 consideration at the position, averaging five catches over the last three games.
Week 5 at Texans
As has become expected, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith limit each other in fantasy and it happened against Sunday against the Bucs. The good news is both scored their first touchdown of the season and both saw five targets. The edge for Henry is he continues to out-snap Smith (40-28 in Week 4) and had 18 more yards than Smith. Henry is a borderline TE1 against the worst team against tight ends in our schedule-adjusted matchup rankings.
Week 4 vs Buccaneers
Has Hunter Henry entrenched himself as the TE1 in New England? Henry has played over 70 percent of the snaps each week this season, while Jonnu Smith has dipped to under 42 percent in Week 3. Still, neither tight end has a game over 50 yards yet this season. Eventually, someone will break through, but this is sort of what we expected, that both tight ends would negate each other for fantasy purposes. Henry slots in as our No. 16 TE this week.
Week 3 vs Saints
Hunter Henry saw one more target in Week 2 (4) than he did in Week 1 (3) and saw his snap percentage go from 72 percent to 81, seeing 18 more snaps in Week 2 than his counterpart, Jonnu Smith. But with so many mouths to feed, including Smith's, Henry remains in TE2 territory. Someone will eventually break through, we just don't know who it will be.
Week 2 at Jets
New England wasn't kidding about getting both tight ends involved, as both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith played almost 75% of the snaps in Week 1 and the team played 49% of snaps out of 12 personnel. But Henry always felt like he was a bit behind Smith, even going back to the contracts both signed in March. That continued in Week 1, as Smith saw five targets while Henry saw just three. Henry may see more targets in Week 2 after being out-targeted by Smith in Week 2 and that upside alone makes him a TE2 and deeper option against the Jets.
Week 1 vs Dolphins
Even with Jonnu Smith having a greater total value contract, Hunter Henry's is very rich in its own right. Both are averaging $12.5 million per year, both are going to be involved in the Patriots' offense. And having a rookie quarterback will help because Mac Jones may look to both tight ends as much as possible. That gives both tight ends upside, but don't expect either to jump into top-five consideration anytime soon. Let's also hope Henry can avoid the injury bug in 2021.
Fantasy Upside
Hunter Henry has overcome quite a bit over the past few seasons with the Chargers. He had a torn ACL in 2018 and dealt with other injuries and issues over the past two seasons. Despite that, he still averaged almost 60 catches and over 600 yards with nine total touchdowns in that time. Now he's getting $12.5 million a year from the Patriots.
Fantasy Downside
Henry, of course, is not the only tight end that received a contract averaging $12.5 million a year in New England. In fact, he wasn't even the first tight end to do so with the Patriots. That honor belongs to Jonnu Smith. Really, it means the Patriots will run a ton of 12 personnel, and, ultimately, both tight ends will start canceling each other out from being a high-end fantasy option among tight ends.
2021 Bottom Line
All that said, there could still be plenty of volume for both Henry and Smith to be solid No. 2 fantasy tight ends. But you add in Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and James White, among others, and there are a lot of mouths to feed in New England. Temper fantasy expectations for Henry.
Week 15 at Las Vegas
Henry bounced back last week against the Atlanta Falcons, as he caught six balls for 41 yards on eight targets. This was a welcomed sight for fantasy managers following a one-catch game the prior week. Henry has been mostly reliable this season, however with the injury and anticipated missed time to WR Mike Williams, Henry should see an uptick in targets and even possibly become the primary option in the red zone. With scarce options at the position in the fantasy semifinals, look toward Henry as a solid TE1 in his Thursday night matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
