Week 6 vs Vikings
It may be a little premature to call Hurst a bust just yet. But he's getting close. He's seeing targets, but he's not doing a whole lot with them. He's been extremely quiet, especially for a tight end that had gotten a decent amount of love heading into fantasy drafts. It's also a bad projected matchup against the Vikings (third in our matchup rankings against tight ends). Hurst is a risk, even with four teams on a bye. He's currently No. 18 on the board for tight ends here.
Week 5 vs Panthers
Hurst had one of his better games on Monday with Ridley and Jones both very limited Monday with 51 yards on four catches. He continues to hover around 65% of offensive snaps for the Falcons. With both top receivers banged up, Hurst may need to be relied upon more against a Panthers team that is in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. He's just inside the TE1 range, coming in at No. 12 on the list in half-PPR.
Week 4 vs Packers
With the injuries to Julio Jones and Russell Gage, it made sense to think more work would be available for Hayden Hurst. Alas, he caught all of one pass for one yard. But it was a touchdown catch. This off the heels of an eight-target day against the Cowboys. The Packers have also been pretty good early on against opposing TEs. Hurst is just inside our TE1 range for the week.
Week 3 vs Bears
Hurst had a better fantasy performance in Week 2 with a 5-72-1 line against the Cowboys. But he's almost become the 4th option thus far in the passing game. Chicago is among the middle of the group in terms of fantasy points allowed to tight ends so far. Hurst is a borderline TE1 this week but fine in leagues that start multiple tight ends.
Week 2 vs Cowboys
While the wide receivers were having big fantasy days and Todd Gurley had a solid debut for Atlanta, it was rather quiet for Hayden Hurst in his first game with the Falcons after being acquired from the Ravens. He was targeted five times and came away with three catches for 38 yards and no score.
Dallas was fairly stout against LA's tight ends in Week 1. Tyler Higbee had 40 yards on three catches. Hurst will eventually get his and we still have him as a back-end TE1 this week.
Hayden Hurst takes over for Austin Hooper, who is now in Cleveland. Hurst should have no trouble sliding right in and making some noise in Atlanta's offense. For what it's worth, Hooper had a solid fantasy day last season against the Seahawks with a 6/65/1 line. Hurst now gets his opportunity to be the lead man at the tight end position after being in the shadows of Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Seattle was also one of the worst fantasy defenses against the tight end position in 2019, so Hurst could have a nice welcome in Atlanta.
Fantasy Upside
Hayden Hurst finally gets his opportunity to work as a full-time TE1 in an offense after he became close to an afterthought in Baltimore behind Mark Andrews. But as our John Paulsen notes, Hurst was effective when he did get work in Baltimore. His 1.69 yards per route run was the same as Zach Ertz and more than Hunter Henry (1.67) and the man he is replacing in Atlanta, Austin Hooper (1.65). Hooper was the sixth-most targeted tight end in 2019 in Atlanta, so Hurst presumably will get a good chunk, and perhaps more, of the 97 targets Hooper saw.
Fantasy Downside
Obviously plenty of other mouths to feed in Atlanta, as Hurst is third in the pecking order amongst receivers, plus Atlanta has to work in Todd Gurley in the backfield. But with Atlanta expected to always be high-octane, as usual, there should still be enough on the plate for Hurst.
2020 Bottom Line
Hurst is currently our TE10 in 0.5PPR with six to seven projected touchdowns and 671 yards. Tight end is once again going to be a mixed bag after the top options are gone but in the mid to late rounds of your draft, Hurst is going to be a solid option to wait for if you miss out on Travis Kelce and George Kittle.
Week 6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Hayden Hurst had four catches for 32 yards last week against the Steelers. Hurst has been a complementary player at the tight end position for the Ravens, seeing 38% of the team’s offensive snaps and catching 12 of 15 balls sent his way through five weeks. His value is mostly tied to whether or not Mark Andrews is injured. Andrews has been hobbled the past couple of weeks, but he’s still been active. As long as he’s in the lineup, Hurst is too risky to trust. Dynasty owners might continue to stash him in the event of a trade to a needy team, but with his status behind Andrews, he should be on waivers in the vast majority of leagues.
Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Hayden Hurst scored the first touchdown of his career last week against the Panthers, finishing the game with two catches and 29 yards. While it was a nice step in the right direction for the rookie out of South Carolina, the Ravens have been using up to four tight ends in a full committee approach thus far this season, making it hard to trust any individual over another. Hurst remains the most valuable as a long-term stash option in most leagues, and should definitely be owned in dynasty formats, but he should remain on the bench until we see a more clearly defined role and consistent production from him.
Fantasy Upside
Hurst looks more pro-ready than most rookie tight ends, as he’s already 24 years old and has the size and athleticism to compete on the line and down the seam. Hurst plays with a nasty streak that should allow him to win the job early on, a job the Ravens have been trying to fill since Todd Heap left after the 2010 season. Hurst will get every opportunity to show he can be a similarly impactful player at the position.
Fantasy Downside
Rookie tight ends don’t typically put up consistent fantasy numbers and the Baltimore offense in general has been marred by inconsistency throughout the franchise’s entire existence. This has been especially the case under quarterback Joe Flacco, who is coming off a season where he averaged only 5.72 yards per completion, a career-low. Hurst will also need to beat out holdovers Maxx Williams and Nick Boyle for playing time, and his potential as a willing blocker might make him a better football player than a fantasy producer.
2018 Bottom Line
Hurst is an excellent dynasty option for fantasy owners looking at his long-term potential as a starter. In redraft leagues, he has speculative value as a priority waiver wire pickup due to his potential for a high number of targets. However, until he shows he has the job locked down and the Ravens show some offensive consistency, he’ll be a risky option in most leagues.
Injury Update:
Hurst may miss the start of the season with a fractured foot. This isn't a good start for the rookie, but it does little to change his fantasy value. He was a long play regardless and remains a good dynasty option, with a little upside in deep redraft leagues.
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