Fantasy Upside
D.J. Moore followed up a solid sophomore season with a productive junior year, catching 66 balls for 1,193 yards and four touchdowns, despite a new offense and a new quarterback. He’ll get a new quarterback once again this year, which is nothing new to him. He’s dealt with a revolving door of quarterbacks dating all the way back to his days at Maryland. Moore seems like a high-floor option with over 100 targets and over 1,000 yards very likely, even if Sam Darnold is barely as good as Teddy Bridgewater was last year. Darnold has thrown touchdowns at a better rate than Bridgewater, so there’s some potential for Moore to increase his chances at end zone production as well.
Fantasy Downside
Christian McCaffrey being healthy may siphon off a few targets, but that’s not really much of a concern. Moore had 135 targets in 2019 when McCaffrey was healthy and putting up monster stats. The two real questions with Moore are whether or not Darnold is a big downgrade, and if he can find paydirt. He has only 10 touchdowns through three seasons and if he’s ever going to rise to legit WR1 status, he’ll need to be pushing 8-10 touchdowns per season.
2021 Bottom Line
The most likely scenario is Darnold isn’t a huge downgrade and Moore experiences a modest increase in end zone production. We have him projected for 6.2 touchdowns and have him ranked as a solid WR2, very commensurate with his sixth-round ADP. That sounds about right, and fantasy owners should feel confident they’re getting what they’re paying for with Moore, with just a hair of upside for a breakthrough to elite status.
Week 17 vs. New Orleans Saints
D.J. Moore was held to just 37 yards on five receptions last week against Washington, despite being targeted 10 times. Moore’s production has been inconsistent this year, but the culmination of all these up-and-down weeks has equated to over 1,000 yards receiving on 107 targets so far. He has at least seven targets in five straight games and continues to jockey with Robby Anderson for the team’s WR1 status.
This week, Moore faces a Saints defense that ranks seventh in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Not a great matchup on paper, but his targets and the likely negative game script the Panthers are going to be in give Moore a nice floor to work with in most leagues. We have him ranked as a quality WR2 option to end the season.
Week 16 at Washington Football Team
D.J. Moore came back from injury with a bang against a tough Green Bay secondary last week, catching six of eight targets for 131 yards. Moore is averaging 18.8 yards per catch; a full 3.6 yards more than his career average. He had an inconsistent start to the season, but has now scored double-digit PPR points in each of his last four starts.
This week, Moore faces a Washington defense that ranks ninth in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Moore should still get several targets, giving him upside, but fantasy owners should be wary of this offense in a tough matchup. We have him ranked as a low-end WR2 option this week.
Week 15 at Green Bay Packers
D.J. Moore missed last game against the Broncos, but there's a chance he could return this week. He was coming off three straight games with double-digit PPR points before missing last week’s contest, so if he’s active, he should be considered a viable WR2 option in most weeks.
If Moore does return, he’ll face a Packers defense that ranks sixth in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Watch the injury report carefully, but as long as he starts – and we don’t get the “emergency” vibe we got from Jamison Crowder last week – he should be active. Temper expectations in a tough matchup, but he should still be used enough to put up borderline WR2 numbers.
Week 12 at Minnesota Vikings
D.J. Moore had a great game against the Lions last week, catching seven of the 11 balls thrown his way for 127 yards. He also added 21 yards on the ground. Moore now has two solid games in a row after two disappointing preceding outings. It was good to see him produce with P.J. Walker as well as Teddy Bridgewater, giving him upside regardless of who is behind center.
This week, Moore faces a Vikings defense that ranks 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. With Moore’s recent targets, it’s hard not to like him in a fair enough matchup. The Panthers offense has been lucrative for fantasy owners, and we have Moore ranked as a WR2 option this week.
Week 11 vs. Detroit Lions
D.J. Moore had a nice game against the Buccaneers last week, catching four of the seven balls thrown his way for 96 yards and a touchdown. Moore has been inconsistent in his production this season, but has also put together some very solid games. While he only has one game over 100 yards, he has four touchdowns – already as many as he had all of last season – and is averaging 6.9 targets per game. There is upside each week for Moore to produce.
This week, Moore faces a Lions defense that ranks 15th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Teddy Bridgewater is nicked up, so if he missed the game, push Moore down to fringe WR2 territory, but he should be a solid WR2 if Teddy suits up in a pretty good matchup.
Week 10 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Since D.J. Moore’s two-touchdown game against the Saints three games ago, he has just four catches and 73 total yards. Moore has been wildly inconsistent as a fantasy option, although he’s still averaging 6.9 targets per game. He also has the ability to make big plays, as evidenced by three games with catches over 40 yards this season. Still, the inconsistency is concerning, particularly when Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel are getting significant targets.
This week, Moore faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 12th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. It’d be nice to assume Moore will continue to get his 6.9 targets, but it’s been so spotty lately, making it risky to bank on him in a tough matchup. He’s a risky WR3 option this week.
Week 9 at Kansas City Chiefs
D.J. Moore had just two catches last week for 55 yards, but he was targeted six times. Moore leads the team in touchdown receptions this season after so few last year, but the problem is, that’s still only three. Moore needs to be more consistent in order to inspire confidence from fantasy owners, but he gets just enough volume and has enough talent to be a viable starter each week.
This week, Moore faces a Chiefs defense that ranks seventh in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Still, the Chiefs should keep the Panthers throwing, so inflate the value of all the Carolina wide receivers this week, including starting Moore as a WR2.
Week 8 vs. Atlanta Falcons
D.J. Moore had four catches for 93 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Saints last week. It was his second and third touchdown of the season, and included an early 74-yarder. While big plays are nice to see, Moore only had five targets. That being said, he’s still averaging 7.5 targets per game on the season, so usage shouldn’t be a problem for him.
Moore has a great matchup against the Falcons this week. He just scored a touchdown against them three games ago, and they rank 22nd in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Expect another pass-happy outing involving the Falcons and for the entire Carolina passing game to benefit from it. Moore is a solid WR1 this week.
Week 7 at New Orleans Saints
D.J. Moore was targeted a team-high 11 times last week against the Bears, catching five balls for 93 yards in the process. The Panthers are using him and Robby Anderson consistently in the passing game, with each averaging at least eight targets per game. Moore has only put together three double-digit PPR points this year, despite the heavy targets, making it hard to trust him as more than a WR2 option in most weeks.
Moore crushed the Saints last year in the only time he was active against them, catching six balls for 126 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This year, the Saints rank 18th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, so Moore should be able to produce if he continues his heavy targets. In a decent matchup where the game script should favor Carolina throwing the ball, we have Moore ranked just inside the top-20, as a WR2.
