Fantasy Upside
The good news? Head coach Bruce Arians told reporters in March that David Johnson is "too young to overuse" and would like to get "30 touches" a game out of the dual-threat running back. The better news? Johnson agrees. In fact, he's eager to take on such a heavy workload. "I'm still young," Johnson said. "I'm still on my first contract. So I feel I can definitely handle 30 touches. I did it last year, basically, with running the ball and catching it out of the backfield." Indeed, Johnson carried the ball 293 times for 1,239 yards and 16 TDs, while adding 80 catches for 879 yards and four receiving touchdowns. As NFL.com notes, his 373-touch season broke down as such: 20 in Week 1; 15; 22; 21; 30; 25; 41 (with 33 carries); 17; 24; 29; 21; 27; 25; 16; 32; and 8 (he was injured early in the contest and did not return). If we toss out the final game, that's an average of 24.3 touches over 15 weeks.
Fantasy Downside
As Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport pointed out in a recent article, back in 2004, while examining the rebound potential of Ricky Williams, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders crunched the numbers for every tailback in NFL history who carried the ball 370 times or more in a season and how they performed the following year. "These backs basically fall into three categories," Schatz wrote. "Guys who got injured the next year, guys who were never as good again, and guys who are Eric Dickerson." Don't be surprised if Johnson is closer to Dickerson than we've seen. Also, if the "Curse of 370" is your biggest concern, that's probably a positive in and of itself.
2017 Bottom Line
Even if expecting 30 touches every week is a reach, the offense continuing to run through Johnson is a given. He's demonstrated the ability to deliver high-end totals when given the opportunity. Draft accordingly. As in first overall.
Week 17 vs. Los Angeles
David Johnson doesn’t climb trees, he bends them in half and pole vaults his way over them. Johnson has been unbelievable this season, and he straight destroyed the Seahawks last week with three touchdowns on the ground, and total of 136 yards from scrimmage, including four receptions. Johnson’s ability to make a difference on the ground and through the air puts him in elite company in fantasy circles, and he’s an early bet to be the first pick in drafts next season.
This week, he’ll face a Rams team that has been very average against the run this year, but it doesn’t matter who David Johnson faces. David Johnson has no enemies, has no challengers, and has no fear. There are only touchdowns and yards along the path of David Johnson. If you’re lucky enough to travel that path along with him, just be thankful.
Week 16 vs. Seattle
David Johnson had another great game against the Saints last week. H gained only 53 yards on 12 carries, but scored two touchdowns and added 55 yards on four receptions. Johnson has been one of the most dynamic and consistent fantasy options all season, and his impact in both the run game and the pass game make him an elite fantasy option every week.
Against Seattle this week, Johnson may have a harder time putting up big numbers. The Seahawks allow the eighth least rushing touchdowns in the league this season and are second only to New England in points allowed. Still, Johnson is a must-start regardless of the matchup, and expect Arizona to find ways to get the ball in his hands enough to make him productive.
Week 15 vs. New Orleans
David Johnson didn’t find the end zone last week against Miami, but he still turned in a solid day with 20 carries and five receptions for a total of 121 yards from scrimmage. Johnson has been one of the most consistent players in fantasy football this season and leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,830. He also leads the league with 15 total touchdowns.
New Orleans is tied for 24th in the league with 14 rushing touchdowns allowed this year, but even if it wasn’t a good matchup, Johnson would be a must-start in all league formats as an RB1. He’s an elite fantasy back and if you have him, be happy you made the choice to draft him this year and leave him active every week.
Week 14 vs. Miami
David Johnson once climbed Mt. Everest and when he reached the top, Mt. Everest had to climb back down David Johnson. He had another fantastic day last week against Washington, rushing for 84 yards and a touchdown while adding 91 yards and another touchdown on nine receptions. He’s one of the most consistent fantasy options in all league formats right now and is just a monster.
While Miami has only given up nine rushing touchdowns this season, they give up the third most rushing yards per game and third highest yards per rushing attempt. Johnson is a must-start every week regardless of the matchup, but he’s likely to cause nightmares for the Dolphins this week.
Week 13 vs. Washington
David Johnson once punched a biker in the face, and the biker apologized for bloodying Johnson’s knuckle. Johnson punched him again for thinking it was possible for him to bleed, and the biker thanked him for the education. Seriously, David Johnson is a bad man. He only had 58 yards on 13 carries against the Falcons last week, but he added 103 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions. He’s made a habit this season of supplementing rushing numbers with top level statistics in the passing game.
This week, Johnson faces a Washington defense that ranks dead last in rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing teams and only San Francisco allows more yards per carry this year. Johnson is our top option and should be active in all leagues as an RB1. Never sit him.
Week 12 vs. Atlanta
David Johnson had another excellent game last week against a very good Vikings defense. Not only did he have 103 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries, he added 57 yards and another touchdown on seven receptions. Johnson is what makes the Cardinal offense go, and he’s been one of the best fantasy players this season in all leagues.
The Falcons have been very average against the run this season, allowing nine rushing touchdowns and 102.9 yards per game on the ground. Regardless of the matchup however, Johnson should be active in all leagues as an elite RB1 option. With how active he is in the passing game as well as his effectiveness running the ball, he’s already becoming one of the best in the league.
Week 11 vs. Minnesota
David Johnson doesn’t play basketball, but if they make a Space Jam 2, the Monstars may want to steal some of his powers as well. This guy has been a fantasy demon this year, putting up numbers in the run game, the passing game, and in the end zone. He had 24 touches last week against the 49ers, including five receptions, for a total of 101 yards and two touchdowns. He’s tied for third in the league with 10 touchdowns and has been an elite fantasy option every week.
He faces a tough Vikings defense this week, but should still be active in all league formats. While the Vikings are tied for first in the league with only four rushing touchdowns allowed this year, they’ve looked a little less dominant lately and nearly gave up a 100 yards to Robert Kelley of Washington last week. Johnson should still get 20+ touches and find enough room to put in a quality RB1 day, and he’s a must start every week regardless of the matchup.
Week 10 vs. San Francisco
David Johnson only had 24 yards on 10 carries against the Panthers before the bye last week, but he supplemented that total with 84 yards on seven receptions, turning in a nice fantasy day overall, especially in PPR formats. Johnson has been an elite option all season and his ability to supplement his rushing totals with production in the passing game separates him from other quality fantasy backs.
He’s a must start every week, but this week especially. The 49ers have given up 12 rushing touchdowns so far this season, and nobody has given up more total points per game. Additionally, San Francisco is allowing an absurd 193 rushing yards per game! Expect a full workload for Johnson and a huge output in such a great matchup.
Week 8 at Carolina
David Johnson has been lights out all year. He’s second in the league in rushing, and is coming off a game where he had 33 carries and eight receptions for a total of 171 yards against a tough Seattle defense. He didn’t find the end zone, but he’s an elite option each and every week.
This week, he faces a Panthers defense that is actually seventh in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at only 89.5, but the team has struggled overall defensively, ranking in the bottom four teams with 29.3 points per game allowed. Expect big things from Johnson and he should be active in all leagues as an elite RB, regardless of matchup.
