Week 8 at Oakland Raiders
Chester Rogers went from 10 targets in Week 6 to four targets in Week 7 with the return of T.Y. Hilton. Tight end Jack Doyle could also return in Week 8. All the more reason to not count on Chester Rogers in fantasy lineups moving forward with this offense returning to full strength.
Week 7 vs. Buffalo Bills
T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) has a chance to return Week 7. Coupled with the Bills defense being a run-funnel defense (ranked 1st in aFPA to WRs), Chester Rogers prospects take a severe downgrade, as he will no longer be the first receiver Luck looks to. He may actually be the fourth target in the offense behind Hilton, tight end Eric Ebron and running back Nyheim Hines. That's too risky to start in what should be positive game script for the Colts and Hilton potentially making his return.
Week 6 at New York Jets
Andrew Luck will once again be playing with a depleted supporting cast of pass catchers in the Meadowlands Sunday. T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle still are not practicing, and now Eric Ebron is also not practicing with four different injuries. Somebody has to catch the ball Sunday against a Jets defense that ranks just 17th in aFPA to WRs. Back-to-back weeks with 11 targets seems to make Chester Rogers the best option over Ryan Grant. However, an average of less than 10 yards per reception over that span severely caps his ceiling. Rogers is nothing more than a desperation FLEX in deep PPR leagues.
Week 5 at New England Patriots (TNF)
Andrew Luck and the Colts offense travel to Foxboro with their top pass-catcher, T.Y. Hilton, doubtful with a hamstring injury. That should funnel more targets to the rest of the pass-catchers, but the Colts have the fourth-lowest implied team total of 20.5 points this week. The Patriots have been tough against receivers, ranking sixth in aFPA to the position. With Luck's tendency to spread the ball around, it's hard to trust any of the remaining WR targets on this team in Week 5. Consider Rogers a desperation sneaky PPR start in Week 5, but one with a low floor.
Week 1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Chester Rogers lost the No. 2 WR job in the Colts offense to Ryan Grant. If Grant isn't even a starting consideration in fantasy, neither is Rogers in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
The Colts are lacking a No. 2 WR with Donte Moncrief signing with Jacksonville. That gives Chester Rogers a chance to emerge as the slot receiver of an Andrew Luck offense. The Colts also did little to address the position, signing Ryan Grant to a one-year deal and picking Deon Cain in the sixth round of the draft. Plus, Rogers is free in drafts right now, mostly going undrafted.
Fantasy Downside
The downside is that this offense will spread the targets around, outside of T.Y. Hilton commanding a massive target share (as he has in the past with Luck at quarterback). Plus, Luck has enjoyed targeting tight ends when not looking Hilton's way. Rogers just may not see enough targets to be a reliable weekly option this season.
2018 Bottom Line
The good news is that Rogers is mostly going undrafted in fantasy so far in 2018. If you believe in his opportunity, it costs you next to nothing to get him. Just don't be surprised if you're cutting him before Week 3.
Week 15 vs. Denver Broncos
The Colts played on the road, in a blizzard, and now have a short week to prepare to face the Broncos defense. They also have the sixth-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week with just 19 points. Denver is the best in the league against WRs in aFPA, and Rogers has only one game with more than 35 yards. You are not starting him at this crucial juncture.
Week 15 at Minnesota
In Weeks 3-7 when Donte Moncrief was out, Rogers didn't catch more than four passes in any of those games and failed to eclipse 40 yards in three of them. Don't get cute in the fantasy playoffs. Rogers should not be in your lineup.
Week 7 at Tennessee
If Phillip Dorsett is inactive (foot and hamstring), that moves Rogers up to the Colts #2 WR this week, with tight end Dwayne Allen also likely inactive. However, beyond a contrarian GPP play in DFS, it's unlikely you'll feel confident starting Rogers in traditional leagues. That's because the Titans are sixth in fantasy points allowed to receivers. He caught all four of his targets last week and had six more come his way the week before, but unless he scores a touchdown, he won't get enough targets to be worthwhile.
Week 5 vs. Chicago
Rogers is not a starting fantasy option with T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett ahead of him, including in Week 5.
