Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts
Last year, Ridley finished with an astounding 10 touchdowns in his rookie season and he hasn’t taken his foot off the gas pedal. In two weeks, he has 12 receptions for 169 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 2, Ridley exploited the Eagles for eight receptions on 10 targets for 105 yards, one touchdown, 23% of the team targets, and 40% of the team air yards.
Ridley draws a juicy matchup against the Colts who scheme towards playing Cover 3 zone coverage. The coverage will help to prevent deep touchdown passes but Ridley could be peppered with targets if he is able to recognize and sit down in the holes created by the zone. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Ridley ranked as the Half PPR WR17 and is a safe start for fantasy owners.
Week 2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Ridley was one of the only bright spots for the Falcons in Week 1. He finished with four receptions on six targets for 64 yards, one touchdown, 13% of the team targets, and 22% of the team air yards. He finished as the Half PPR WR25 with 14.4 fantasy points. Ridley continues to be a highly efficient receiver but he will need more volume to regularly put up WR2 fantasy numbers.
An increased workload could start this week because the Falcons are implied for 25.25 points at home and will face an Eagles secondary who gave up 380 yards against the Washington Redskins in Week 1. The Eagles are ranked seventh-worst against wide receivers according to our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen has Ridley ranked as the Half PPR WR22 and is flex worthy in a potential shootout (Over/Under: 52.5).
Week 1 at Minnesota Vikings
Ridley finished his rookie season with 10 touchdowns, which was tied for the fourth-highest in the entire league. The only receivers to score more touchdowns than Ridley were Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Ridley finished as the WR19 in half PPR scoring settings but he was a boom or bust type of player. In half PPR scoring, he finished as a WR1 in 31.25% of his games, WR2 in 0%, WR3 in 12.5%, and as a WR4 or worse in 56.25%.
Game script is very difficult to predict in the NFL but it is worth noting the Falcons are road underdogs (+4) and might be forced to throw more often than normal to stay competitive. The matchup against the Vikings is less than ideal as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has the Vikings ranked third best against wide receivers. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Ridley as the PPR WR30 in Week 1 with a median projection of 12.1 fantasy points.
Fantasy Upside
Generally, it takes a wide receiver at least a year or two before they have a breakout season at the NFL level. Ridley managed to break the mold and shatter expectations in his rookie year. He finished with 10 touchdowns, which was tied for fourth-best in the entire league. The only receivers to score more touchdowns than Ridley were Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Speaking of elite company, Ian Hartitz noted Ridley, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. are the only receivers to score ten or more touchdowns in their rookie seasons within the last five years. Ridley’s best performance of the year came in Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints. He had seven receptions, 146 yards, and three touchdowns. He followed up that performance with four receptions, 54 yards, and two touchdowns against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4. This year, the Falcons will face the ninth-easiest wide receiver schedule, according to 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Fantasy Downside
Ridley finished as the WR19 in half PPR scoring settings but he was a boom or bust type of player. In half PPR scoring, he finished as a WR1 in 31.25% of his games, WR2 in 0%, WR3 in 12.5%, and as a WR4 or worse in 56.25%. He scored a total of 10 touchdowns but half of his touchdowns came in a two-game span. Ridley finished the season with 64 receptions, which means he had a wildly efficient touchdown rate of 15.6%. Before drafting Ridley, you need to ask yourself if you think he can sustain these numbers in his second season.
2019 Bottom Line
Ridley’s efficiency metrics scream negative regression but he may be able to overcome some of it with increased opportunity. Last season, his team target share was only 15% and the market share of team air yards was only 17%. Julio Jones should continue to receive the majority of targets but Ridley has the potential to bite into Mohamed Sanu’s 15% team target share. Ridley will continue to have week winning upside but it might be difficult to predict when those breakout games happen.
Week 17 at Tampa Bay Bucs
Calvin Ridley caught three-of-five targets for 90 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ Week 16 win over the Panthers. The rookie had just one touchdown since the middle of October but scored on the first play of the second half when he caught a 75-yard pass from Matt Ryan. Ridley took advantage of busted coverage and went untouched on the play. Ranked as our WR22 for Week 17, Ridley has WR3 appeal when the Falcons visit the Bucs on Sunday.
Week 16 at Carolina Panthers
Calvin Ridley caught five-of-seven targets for 42 yards in the Falcons’ Week 15 win over the Cardinals. Nobody expected Ridley to keep up the scoring pace that he set earlier in the year and he has been held to fewer than 55 yards in nine of his last 11 games. Ridley does have some WR3 appeal for Week 16 but that comes with a caveat. Julio Jones is dealing with a hip injury that kept him from practicing on Wednesday. With the Falcons officially eliminated from playoff contention, they could choose to shut Jones down. If he doesn’t play in Week 16, Ridley could see a boost in targets and put him on the WR3 map in a good matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 22nd against fantasy receivers. For now, Ridley ranks as our WR31 and if Jones suits up, Ridley will be nothing but a dart throw for Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Calvin Ridley caught just 1-of-4 targets for 10 yards in the Falcons’ Week 14 loss to the Packers. Despite Atlanta playing in catch-up mode for most of the afternoon, Ridley was a non-factor and has fallen off the past five weeks. The rookie now has fewer than 40 yards in four of his last five games and is no more than a WR4 for Sunday’s matchup with the Cardinals. Ridley ranks as our WR36 for Week 15.
Week 14 at Green Bay Packers
Calvin Ridley caught three-of-five targets for 22 yards in the Falcons’ Week 13 loss to the Ravens. Ridley had a 14-yard touchdown on a battled ball in the fourth quarter but the play was called back by penalty. Atlanta’s once high-powered offense has crashed and burned the past four weeks, failing to score more than 19 points in four consecutive games. Ridley is also dealing with hand and elbow injuries that limited him in practice this week. Ranked as our WR32 for Week 14, Ridley is firmly in the WR4 category and we’d avoid him if you have better FLEX options.
Week 13 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Calvin Ridley caught eight-of-13 targets for 93 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ Week 12 loss to the Saints. Ridley’s fumble in the fourth quarter summed up the night for Atlanta, which hung with New Orleans for most of the game but couldn’t get out of its own way. On the fumble, Ridley was going into the end zone but had the ball knocked out at the one-yard line. It was one of four turnovers for the Falcons on the night. Limited on Wednesday due to ankle and elbow injuries, Ridley will be a boom-or-bust option against a Ravens defense that ranks No. 2 against fantasy receivers this season. He ranks as our WR31 for Week 13.
Week 12 at New Orleans Saints
Rookie Calvin Ridley caught three-of-four targets for 32 yards in the Falcons’ Week 11 loss to the Cowboys. Unfortunately for the Falcons, his lone miss clanked off his hands and into the waiting arms of linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. That turnover (which came in the second half), was the catalyst for Dallas’ second-half surge. While Atlanta did come from behind to tie the game at 19-19, the Falcon defense wilted in the closing seconds and allowed a game-winning field goal to lose for the sixth time this season. Ridley has just one touchdown since September and has topped 50 yards receiving only once since Week 4. He did have his best game against the Saints in Week 3, posting a 7-146-3 line but he’ll be a boom-or-bust option when Atlanta travels to New Orleans on Thanksgiving night. The Saints are playing much better defense than they were earlier in the year. Ridley ranks as our WR32 for Week 12. He’s a roll of the dice.
