Fantasy Upside
In his one season in New England, Brandin Cooks caught 65 passes for 1,082 yards with seven touchdowns. That production was good for WR7, making it three consecutive years that Cooks has finished in the top 12. Coming off three-straight 1,000-yard seasons, Cooks now joins one of the best offenses in the NFL under Sean McVay. The Rams spent the entire offseason talking their new receiver up and committed to him long term by signing him to a new five-year, $80 million extension that runs through 2023. While there are plenty of mouths to feed in L.A., Cooks heads into the season as the team's No. 1 receiver.
Fantasy Downside
There's a couple of reasons to be cautious about drafting Cooks. For starters, he'll fight for targets with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and running back Todd Gurley. Secondly, while Jared Goff is coming off a breakout season, he still represents a downgrade for Cooks after the latter played with Tom Brady last season. Finally, the Rams traded for Sammy Watkins a year ago and were reportedly interested in committing to him long term but he was often an afterthought in McVay's offense. If Cooks is going to be relegated to only a deep threat, then he'll serve as a boom-or-bust fantasy option all season.
2018 Bottom Line
Be careful here. Cooks' role has yet to be specified and the Rams strive for balance offensively. The offense didn't generate a high volume of pass attempts a year ago and McVay strived to spread the ball around. Watkins did score eight touchdowns last season but he was basically a vertical threat that cleared space for Gurley, Woods, and Kupp. That made Watkins a frustrating fantasy player a year ago and if Cooks winds up having the same role, he'll have big games but will also be inconsistent week to week. Ranked as our No. 26 WR heading into the preseason, view Cooks as a WR3.
Super Bowl vs. Philadelphia Eagles
What matters in this different one-game format is not so much how many points we project each player for but how much each player costs per point. In FanDuel's half-point PPR format, here's how we value the wide receivers in terms of dollar/FanDuel point: Brandin Cooks>Alshon Jeffery>Nelson Agholor>Danny Amendola>Torrey Smith>Chris Hogan>Mack Hollins>Phillip Dorsett.
As for DraftKings' full PPR scoring, here's how we value the receivers in terms of dollar/DraftKings point: Brandin Cooks>Nelson Agholor>Alshon Jeffery>Danny Amendola>Torrey Smith>Chris Hogan>Mack Hollins>Phillip Dorsett.
AFC Conference Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is some mystery to how healthy Tom Brady is going into the conference championship game because of an apparent injury to his right hand. Reports out of New England range from Brady is okay to it will affect him slightly. Plus, the matchup is not a great one against Jacksonville's elite corners; however, the price might be right for Cooks on DraftKings and FanDuel. He's in the upper echelon of our WR value reports this week.
Divisional Round vs. Tennessee Titans
The Patriots have the highest implied team total as 14-point home favorites in Vegas this week, and that total is a fantasy juicy 31 points. This is also a pass funnel defense as the Titans run defense finished fourth in the NFL. The Titans are just 20th in aFPA to WRs. The return of Chris Hogan could muddy the waters a bit for Cooks' usage, but he's still projected to be a mid-WR1 this week. His chances to add a touchdown also can't be denied in this matchup.
Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots are still playing for home-field advantage this week, which makes their starters viable in fantasy for Week 17. The Patriots also have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29 points. The Jets are just 26th in aFPA to WRs. Cooks had a solid day in the earlier meeting between these teams. Consider him a top-10 WR in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29.5 points, and the Bills defense is a run funnel, ranking sixth in aFPA versus WRs but dead last in aFPA versus RBs. Cooks managed just 2 receptions against the Bills a couple weeks ago. Looking at his stat lines over the past month, he's needed a touchdown to produce WR2 numbers or better. He's a risky play, but that's what you get with Cooks. The upside can't be ignored in this offense. Start him expecting WR2 numbers but knowing both a higher ceiling and lower floor are in his wide range of outcomes.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the loss in Miami last week, the Patriots are still favored in Pittsburgh with the second-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 28.25 points. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers have also allowed the eighth-most yards to receivers. And during that span, they are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to wideouts (6). Brandin Cooks is in a good spot, despite catching only 1-of-7 targets last week. Consider him a WR2, at worst, in Week 15.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 14 with 29 points. Chris Hogan is back this week, but Rob Gronkowski is also suspended. That means Cooks' volume should be safe. He had an off week in Week 13, but his overall body of work is encouraging for the fantasy postseason. The Dolphins are around league average in aFPA to WRs, but Cooks did well against this secondary last season (6-83-1). He's locked in as a WR1 in Week 14.
Week 13 at Buffalo Bills
In a week with relatively low over/unders across the board in Vegas, the Patriots and Bills have the highest at 48.5 points with the Patriots having the second-highest implied team total at 28.5 points. That's a good sign for Patriots receivers. Cooks is a top-five WR this week due to these factors and the Bills being just around league average in aFPA versus WRs. He has back-to-back 20+ point weeks. Enjoy the hot streak.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
Patriots targets over their past two games with Chris Hogan out (which appears will be the case again this week): Brandin Cook-20, Danny Amendola-13, Rob Gronkowski-10, Rex Burkhead-9, Martellus Bennett-6. Cooks has emerged as the preferred target of Tom Brady and gets a matchup this week in which the Patriots have the highest implied team total in Vegas of 32 points. Start Cooks with confidence.
