Week 5 at Detroit
Andre Ellington is set to return to action this weekend against the Lions after missing the last three games with a sprained PCL. Supposedly, he was healthy enough to play last week, but the Cardinals kept him out as a precaution.
Expect Ellington to be eased back into the offense against Detroit. With Chris Johnson and David Johnson both running well in his absence, the Cardinals have the luxury of not forcing Ellington back into full time action. Leave him on the bench one more week while we see how the workload is going to be divvied up.
Week 1 vs. New Orleans
Andre Ellington appears healthy to start the 2015 regular season, and he’ll be entering the year as the starter for the second time in his three year career. He finished last season with only 660 yards in 12 games, but he added 46 receptions, which made him more valuable in PPR formats. While he may see some snaps go to rookie David Johnson, Ellington should still be the main cog in the Arizona backfield.
Ellington starts the season against a Saints defense that was awful against the run last year and did very little to improve that side of their roster. Only the Cowboys and Falcons gave up more rushing touchdowns in 2014 and only the Giants gave up a higher average yards per carry. New Orleans allows 4.8 yards per carry to opposing rushers and Ellington should benefit from the matchup. He’s a solid RB2 in all league formats and should be active in all leagues.
Fantasy Upside
As a rookie in 2013, Andre Ellington demonstrated great potential, gaining 1,023 yards from scrimmage and averaging 5.53 yards per rush, which led all NFL players who had at least 100 attempts. In other words, he's a dangerous weapon when used in moderation -- a weapon opposing coaches fear due to his explosive speed and ability to do damage in the open field.
Fantasy Downside
When Rashard Mendenhall retired, Ellington assumed the featured back role, though his size prompted questions about his ability to handle it. While he played through a foot injury, and later a hip injury, a sports hernia ended Ellington’s 2014 season in December. The injuries were clearly an issue. Ellington’s per carry average last season was just 3.3 yards, and as a team the Cardinals ranked last overall in that category. He underwent surgery this offseason to repair the hernia. The foot injury didn’t require surgery, just rest and rehab, and Ellington is beginning to feel like his old self. “It’s like night and day,” he said. “I’m close to doing a lot of things I’ve done in the past.” The injuries might explain why Ellington wasn’t threatened when the Cardinals drafted RB David Johnson in the third round.
Bottom Line
If Johnson is what the Cardinals think he is, he will lighten Ellington’s load. And if it plays out that way, it might turn out to be a case of addition by subtraction. If that's the case, Ellington's current ADP of 20 might be reasonable. That said, I'd suggest fantasy owners keep a close eye on Johnson's progress in training camp before making a final decision on investing in Ellington.
Week 14 – Andre Ellington vs. Kansas City
Andre Ellington had only 12 yards on five carries last week before getting injured. He’s supposed to be good to go this week, but fantasy owners should keep an eye on the versatile and talented second year man out of Clemson.
Should he be good to go, Ellington has a nice matchup against a Chiefs team that ranks first against the pass, but 30th against the run this season. Ellington is a risky bet with his hip pointer, but fantasy owners should have him active as a RB2 if all is well come game time.
Update:
It looks like Ellington will be out this week, so make sure to adjust your lineups accordingly and pick up Stepfan Taylor or Marion Grice if you need to, with Taylor being the most likely to get the most touches.
Week 13 – Andre Ellington vs. Atlanta
Andre Ellington was versatile and touched the ball 15 times last week, including five receptions, but he wound up with only 63 yards as the Cardinals lost in Seattle, 19-3. The Arizona offense struggled in all phases of the game, and Ellington had nowhere to run throughout the game.
This week, Ellington should find an easier time against Atlanta. Atlanta is allowing over 125 yards per game to opposing rushers and they’ve given up a league high 15 touchdowns on the ground. With his usage rate and a nice matchup, Ellington should be considered a low-end RB1 this week.
Week 12 – Andre Ellington vs. Seattle
Andre Ellington had only 42 yards on the ground last week against a top notch Detroit defense, but he still had 19 carries and he added four receptions and 24 yards to go with it. Ellington remains a versatile fantasy option who is worth starting week-to-week, and his output against the tough Lions front four seems to be his floor when healthy.
Seattle is top ten against the run this season, allowing just over 90 yards per game on the ground, but they’ve given up 61 receptions out of the backfield as well, so Ellington should still put up decent numbers with his versatility. It’s not an easy matchup however, so we have him downgraded to a fringe RB1 instead of a surefire one this week. Regardless, he should be active in all leagues.
Week 11 – Andre Ellington vs. Detroit
Andre Ellington had a rough day on the ground last week against the Rams, averaging only 1.3 yards on 18 carries. Luckily he had five receptions and a rushing touchdown, giving him a total of 42 yards and a score on the day and salvaging his fantasy value for the week.
This week, things won’t get any easier for the versatile Cardinals back, as he faces the Lions elite run defense. They’ve only allowed four rushing touchdowns all season, and have allowed the second least amount of rushing yards per game with a dominant defensive line. Ellington is still a top fantasy option however, due to his workload and his ability to put up big plays. We have him downgraded to fringe RB1 this week due to the matchup, but he should be in your lineup every week.
Week 10 – Andre Ellington vs. St. Louis
Andre Ellington had another versatile and productive week against the Cowboys, and he’s becoming a very consistent fantasy back for owners. He had 21 carries for 95 yards and added 39 more yards and a touchdown on four receptions. Ellington is a playmaker with excellent vision and he’s been a big reason why the Cardinals are 7-1 during the first half of the season.
This week, Ellington faces a Rams team that is allowing more yards per game on the ground than all but three teams in the league, and also ranks 20th in rushing touchdowns allowed this season. Ellington should be featured heavily in this divisional matchup, and while the Rams looked great on defense against the 49ers last week, Ellington should be able to exploit the opposing team and continue to put up RB1 numbers. He should be active in all leagues.
Week 9 – Andre Ellington vs. Dallas
Andre Ellington had another nice game against the Eagles last week, putting up 71 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and adding three receptions and 14 yards as well. He’s been a key cog in the Cardinals’ offense and touched the ball 26 times in the win over Philadelphia.
This week, Ellington faces a Cowboys defense that has been much better against the pass than they’ve been against the run, and Ellington should be in store for another full workload with only Robert Hughes as a secondary back after Stepfan Taylor was hurt last week. Fantasy owners should consider Ellington a must start each week, and we have him as a top ten option in Week 9.
Week 8 – Andre Ellington vs. Philadelphia
Andre Ellington had another nice game last week against the Raiders, finishing with 24 carries for 88 yards, and adding another 72 yards on six receptions. He now ranks fourth in the league among running backs in receiving yards and has demonstrated the kind of versatility that makes guys like Matt Forte so dominant in fantasy leagues. It’s concerning that Ellington doesn’t get goal line looks, but he’s been so good at racking up yards and receptions, that he’s become a must start in fantasy leagues.
The Eagles are allowing over 124 yards per game on the ground and while they’ve only allowed two rushing touchdowns, Ellington’s versatility should help him continue to put up excellent fantasy numbers in Week 8. With a nice matchup, Ellington is a top ten start this week and should be active in all leagues.
