Week 9 versus Denver Broncos
It was great to see Cooper Rush rely on Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb Week 8 as the two each topped 100 receiving yards. Dak Prescott may not do this to the same degree but he also knows where Cooper is at all times. The Denver Broncos come to town in Week 9 and bring big names to the secondary without the production. Denver is 15th in aFPA to the receiver position and will be facing the best receiving duo they have seen to this point in 2021. Cooper has a chance to be a WR1 Week 9.
Week 8 at Minnesota Vikings
Despite averaging over 12.43 yards per reception, Amari Cooper has not topped 70 receiving yards since Week 1. Part of the issue is Dak Prescott’s efficiency keeping his passing totals lower, but the other is the re-emergence of Ezekiel Elliott as a runner. The Minnesota Vikings are middle-of-the-road against wide receivers and have not faced a 1-2 combo like Lamb and Cooper since Week 3. Cooper is a WR2/3 that is touchdown-needy due to his lack of yardage.
Week 6 at Patriots
Cooper has at least 3-60-1 each of the past two weeks but is being buoyed by touchdowns. Week 5 was the first time both Cooper and CeeDee Lamb scored since Week 1. A lot of that has to do with Dak Prescott’s passing efficiency. The Cowboys head to New England to take on the Patriots, a much better team against the pass than the run. With the running game topping 30 attempts each of the past two weeks in positive game scripts, a similar offensive plan could be in place in Week 6. Cooper sits as a WR2 in 4for4’s rankings.
Week 5 vs Giants
23 yards per reception and a touchdown make up for a lack of volume. Amari Cooper continues to see an improved aDOT and gets the 24th-ranked defense in aFPA. The addition of CB Adoree Jackson helped the Giants secondary but the group has allowed at least 60 yards or a touchdown to outside receivers each week. The Cowboys have arguably the best 1-2 receiver duo in the NFL and will be able to find success in their home matchup. Cooper remains a WR2 with potential to be a WR1.
Week 4 vs Carolina Panthers
Despite playing with bruised ribs, Amari Cooper played over 80% of snaps for the third straight week. Like teammate CeeDee Lamb, Cooper’s talents were not needed as much with the running game and Dalton Schultz contributing four touchdowns. That should change this week with Carolina’s top-ranked rush defense and 17th ranked pass defense coming to town. The Panthers also lost rookie CB Jaycee Horn for the foreseeable future. If the Panthers' front four can penetrate the Cowboys' offensive line consistently, Cooper could see a heavy target share as the safety valve receiver.
Week 3 vs Eagles
Bruised ribs are an awful feeling, but so are the majority of body parts that get bruised. Amari Cooper will have to manage the pain to play Week 3 for the Cowboys' home opener against Philadelphia. The Eagles defense entered 2021 as a bottom-10 defense against the wide receiver position according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted positional defensive rankings, but have held Calvin Ridley and Deebo Samuel to 11 catches and 144 receiving yards combined. The two have run the majority of their routes outside like Cooper has through two games. The biggest difference between Dallas and Atlanta/San Francisco is depth at receiver. CeeDee Lamb will draw plenty of attention and Cedrick Wilson was fine in a limited role replacing Michael Gallup. Cooper’s injury and the Eagles’ early-season success against top receiver justify concern for Cooper finishing Week 3 as a WR2.
Week 2 vs Chargers
The addition of CeeDee Lamb and health of Dak Prescott continued to show that Amari Cooper in 1-on-1 coverage is a dangerous option for opposing defenses. Cooper had 16 targets in Week 1 and against a similarly stingy Chargers defense Week 2 will be in line for another double-digit target game. While the Chargers limited the WFT to 135 passing yards, it was done in part due to an injury and a cold backup quarterback. Cooper finished with 28% of the Cowboys' target share (5th most in FL) and with no Michael Gallup for at least three weeks, should again contend for a top-five position in target share.
Week 1 vs Buccaneers
Amari Cooper opens 2021 with a likely matchup against either Jamel Dean or Carlton Davis III. Dean poses the bigger test as the 12-highest graded cornerback according to Pro Football Focus. Davis is 46th and is no slouch. Tampa’s defense ranks 17th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Part of the middle-of-the-road ranking is Tampa Bay’s top-ranked rushing defense and the offense’s ability to score points. This puts pressure on the secondary by having to see more pass attempts.
That does play into Cooper’s wheelhouse. In four full games with Dak Prescott, Cooper saw 51 targets and 37 receptions. Dallas was chasing points a lot to start last season and a healthier line should allow for more competitive games. Cooper is a trusted option for Prescott and will see a healthy workload regardless of game script.
Fantasy Upside
Amari Cooper established himself as the top receiver in Dallas rain, shine, soft tissue injuries, and hurt quarterbacks be damned. Cooper set a career-high in receptions in 2020 with 92 and topped 1,100 receiving yards for the third time in his career (2016, 2019-20). Cooper has put up high-end WR2 numbers with Dak Prescott as his quarterback and was a benefactor of Prescott’s hot start in 2020. Cooper had double-digit targets in three of four games Prescott finished and two games with 100-plus yards receiving and double-digit receptions. 2020 was also the third time Cooper was targeted 130-plus times and his first time as a Cowboy. The addition of CeeDee Lamb altered Cooper’s role some in the passing offense, but it is clear that no matter the QB under center, he is the lead dog.
Fantasy Downside
Prescott is better than the combination of Cowboys replacement quarterbacks. It is easier for a less experienced or familiar signal caller to target the assumed top receiver. Cooper’s chemistry with Prescott is obvious, but he also has experience with Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tony Pollard. If Cooper’s targets drop there should be a concern. He finished 2020 with his lowest Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of his career. The return of a healthy offensive line could also mean more running plays. In 2019, the Cowboys passed the ball 57% of the time and were 19th in neutral game scripts. That percentage went up to 61% and 10th in 2020. How likely will Cowboys Offensive Coordinator keep a higher pace when all of his best players are available and expected to be leading?
Cooper has also suffered from soft tissue injuries throughout his career. He has not missed significant time in two years as a Cowboy, but the constant injury designations are enough to scare fantasy players away.
2021 Bottom Line
Cooper projects as a top 15 wide receiver with WR1 upside. He has shown his ability to soak up targets no matter the quarterback and has shone with Kellen Moore as the play caller/designer in Dallas.
Week 17 vs. New York Giants
Amari Cooper only caught four balls last week but managed to turn those four catches into 121 yards. Cooper has maintained a slight edge in targets over the other Cowboy wide receivers since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback and has been a steady WR2 even with the offense crumbling around him for long stretches of the season. Cooper will have to deal with James Bradberry in Week 17, a matchup that will make life much harder on Cooper than it is in a normal week. Cooper is difficult to trust in DFS in light of the bad matchup, but he continues to post solid volume and efficiency, so he is worth considering as a contrarian play.
