Fantasy Upside
After struggling to find the field with Seattle, Alex Collins had a breakout season last year with the Ravens, rushing for 973 yards on 4.6 yards per carry. He also scored six rushing touchdowns and caught 23 passes. The Ravens didn’t go after a running back high in the draft, leaving Collins the likely starter in Baltimore for the 2018 season. Should he continue to develop—he’ll be only 24 years old when the season starts—he could be a consistent fantasy producer on a team that desperately needs a steady runner in the backfield.
Fantasy Downside
Collins will be battling Kenneth Dixon and Javorius Allen for touches, and if he struggles early on, it’s likely he’ll be on a short leash. Dixon was heralded as a potential solution before injuries and a suspension limited his chance to earn the job. Allen is best suited for a third-down role, but he’ll continue to eat into Collins’ snaps and receiving production. Also, the Ravens let starting center Ryan Jensen sign with the Buccaneers in free agency.
2018 Bottom Line
Collins is too risky to count on early in the draft, but his value as a fifth-round option in most fantasy leagues puts him right on par with some of the rookie running backs. That makes sense given his limited experience. Fantasy owners should consider him a solid potential RB2 option in the middle rounds.
Week 17 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Alex Collins has struggled the last two weeks, averaging only 2.33 yards on 30 total carries. He has caught 8 passes in the same timeframe, though, and he continues to be the primary ball-carrier for the Ravens.
Expect another full workload for Collins this week against the Bengals. Baltimore can guarantee a playoff spot with a win, and Cincinnati has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, and only the Chargers have allowed more rushing yards to opposing teams. Collins has RB1 upside this week and should be active in all league formats.
Week 16 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Alex Collins struggled last week, rushing for only 19 yards on 12 carries. He did catch 5 passes for 33 yards, however, and he was targeted 8 times, second-most on the team. Collins has been the best Ravens running back this season, and one bad game shouldn’t keep him from getting a full workload to close out the season. The Ravens are making a final push for the playoffs and won’t hesitate to lean on their running game if they can.
Collins has a lot of upside against the Colts this week. Indianapolis has allowed 13 touchdowns to opposing running backs this year and they just allowed 158 yards to C.J. Anderson last week. The Ravens could get up early and lean on the run game, giving Collins RB2 value.
Week 15 at Cleveland Browns
Alex Collins had a great game against the Steelers last week, rushing for 120 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. He also added 46 yards on a pair of receptions, and he has at least one touchdown in four straight games. Collins appears to be entrenched as the lead back for the Ravens and should be a high-floor fantasy option for the rest of the season.
This week, Collins faces a Browns team that has been surprisingly average against opposing running backs, allowing only 6 rushing touchdowns to the running back position this season. Still, the Ravens are likely to stay ahead for most of this game, so expect Collins to get a full workload and put up solid RB2 numbers in all league formats.
Week 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Alex Collins had a nice game against the Lions last week, rushing 15 times for 75 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also had 23 yards on 2 receptions and was on the field for 54% of the Ravens' offensive snaps. He’s clearly the primary ball-carrier in Baltimore, despite the recent return of Danny Woodhead.
This week, Collins faces a tough Steelers defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this year. He should still be considered a low-end RB2 option in most leagues due to his likely heavy workload, but fantasy owners should temper their expectations in what could be a very difficult day for the Baltimore offense.
Week 13 vs. Detroit Lions
Alex Collins saw a dip in his snap count last week against the Texans, as Javorius Allen and Danny Woodhead both ate into his playing time. However, he still carried the ball 16 times for 60 yards and a touchdown. He remains the primary two-down back in Baltimore.
This week, Collins has a nice matchup against a Lions defense giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Only the Bills have given up more rushing touchdowns than Detroit has this season, and Collins should benefit from another full workload. While his value takes a hit in PPR formats, Collins should be a solid low-end RB2 option in most leagues.
Week 12 vs. Houston Texans
Alex Collins only averaged 2.5 yards per carry against the Packers last week, but it was good to see him get 20 carries and a touchdown with Danny Woodhead back in the lineup. He also caught 4 balls for 22 yards. It seems clear Woodhead is going to impact Javorius Allen’s workload of any Ravens back.
This week, Collins faces a banged-up Houston defense, so there’s some upside. However, the Texans have allowed the least amount of fantasy points per game to opposing backs this year, giving Collins a lower floor than in most weeks. He has some low-end RB2 potential in standard league formats, but it might be best to look elsewhere if you have a better option.
Week 11 at Green Bay Packers
Alex Collins was disappointing against the Titans before the bye last week, gaining only 43 yards on 13 carries. Collins has fluctuated in his production this season, but has shown the ability to gain big yardage at times and is still averaging 5.6 yards on 93 carries this season. He should remain the primary two-down back in Baltimore.
This week, Collins has some upside against the Packers. Facing a backup quarterback and third-string running back, it’s unlikely the Packers get up early and cause the Ravens to abandon the run. Plus, Green Bay has allowed 8 rushing touchdowns so far this season, tied for 22nd in the league. Collins is risky, as he shares time in the backfield, but he has some low-end RB2 upside with the potential for a dozen or more touches.
Week 9 at Tennessee Titans
Alex Collins got a full workload against the Dolphins last week and averaged 6.3 yards per carry on his way to 113 yards rushing. He added a pair of receptions for 30 yards as well, and he remains the most impressive runner in the Baltimore backfield.
This week, he may not get as many touches as the Ravens are unlikely to shootout to a 40-0 victory and run the ball 40 times. However, Collins has RB2 potential since he’s been averaging 13.75 carries over his past four games. The Titans have been above average against the run this year, allowing 100.1 yards per game on the ground. If Collins gets over a dozen carries again, he’ll be worth having in your lineup.
Week 8 vs. Miami Dolphins
Alex Collins and the rest of the Baltimore offense struggled against the Vikings last week. Collins ended up with only 30 yards. However, he led the team with 10 carries and he continues to look like the most talented back in Baltimore.
This week, he’ll face a Dolphins team that has been surprisingly good against the run. While they’ve given up 4 touchdowns on the ground, they rank fifth in the league with only 82.3 rushing yards allowed per game this season. Collins should be considered a deep flier at best this week, although he still has long-term potential.
