Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Vegas 93: Perez vs Taira

The UFC returns to the Apex for another fight night event. The main event features Alex Perez coming off a short-notice knockout win against fast-rising grappling prospect Tatsuro Taira. This card has had a shakeup as Ikram Aliskerov was removed from the event to headline against Robert Whittaker in Saudi Arabia. The remainder of the card features a number of classic striker versus grappler matchups that should be solid targets for DFS lineups.

Best Bets for UFC Vegas 93: Perez vs Taira

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Asu Almabaev + Nate Maness + Jeka Saragih to win (-127, Caesers)

Fight Breakdown: Asu Almabaev vs Jose Johnson

Almabaev is clearly the better fighter in this matchup. He does everything well but he has a huge gap in the wrestling department. My complaint with Almabaev is that he doesn’t always show the best control or prioritize a need to advance position.

Johnson’s takedown defense is bad to the point that he was taken down 12 times by Ronnie Lawrence. While that’s bad, it also means he got up 11 times. While Johnson has a decent get-up game, he is also a bit too willing to fight off of his back, where he likes to throw his legs up for triangle attacks. He has been successful with this at lower levels, but I don’t see his jiu-jitsu as a threat at this level.

The one X-factor is that Johnson is cutting to 125-pounds for the first time. He will be a 6’ flyweight with a 6-inch reach advantage. Outside of Almabaev recklessly running into a punch, He should outclass Johnson wherever this fight takes place.

Fight Breakdown: Nate Maness vs Jimmy Flick

There is no secret in this fight. Flick is an unathletic one-trick pony. If he can’t take you down, then he can’t win the fight. His striking is subpar, to put it nicely, and he reacts horribly to getting hit. Maness has fought better grapplers than Flick and held his own. Maness should be able to see the takedowns coming from a mile away. With the fight on the feet, Maness will be live for a KO.

Fight Breakdown: Jeka Saragih vs Westin Wilson

Much like the breakdown above, Jeka will be live for the KO. Westin Wilson isn’t a UFC-level talent. He didn’t fight his way into a contract. He was a short-notice signee that has been destroyed in his 2 UFC appearances, albeit for different reasons. Wilson is a karate-based fighter that wants to grapple. His takedowns are weak, and he doesn’t have much pop on any of his strikes. Saragih does have weak takedown defenses, but he should be so far ahead in the striking that Wilson would have to be perfect to win the fight.

Risk: 1.27 units on Caesers to win 1 unit.

DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC Vegas 93

Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights give us more scoring upside and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling heavy fighters with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Asu Almabaev $9500 - Almabaev will have a huge grappling and wrestling advantage in this fight against Jose Johnson. Johnson will have a big reach advantage so it will be important for Almabaev to be cautious when using his striking to set up his wrestling entries. The danger is in getting caught while coming in but outside of running into a big punch, Almabaev should control this fight easily while having a chance to finish.

Nate Maness $9400 - Maness is probably a bit overpriced here, but it is largely based off the high probability that he will end this fight via knockout. Jimmy Flick has shown to be a limited one-dimensional grappler. Maness should be able to defend takedowns as he picks apart Flick. There is an outside chance that Flick could pull off a submission, and that is the main reason why I think this salary should be a bit lower, but I think there is still reason to feel comfortable playing Maness.

Jeka Saragih $9300 - You could almost cut and paste the above breakdown for Maness here. Saragih, in this fight, should win via knockout. Westin Wilson is 0-2 in the UFC and likely isn’t a UFC-level talent. Wilson is a low-volume karate-based grappler with subpar defensive skills. Saragih struggles with takedown defense but should be far enough ahead with the striking that he should be able to finish this fight.

Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)

Garret Armfield $8700 - Armfield is 2-1 in the UFC and will be taking on Brady Hietsand who is also 2-1. This fight will come down to two things. Heistand will wrestle this entire fight. If Armfield can keep the fight standing or consistently return the fight to the feet then Armfield will have the striking and cardio advantage. With the fight on the feet, Armfield will have a solid shot at landing big.

Tatsuro Taira $8600 - Taira has been among the better DFS fighters over the last couple of years as a prospect. He has been able to consistently out-wrestle and grapple his opponents while consistently scoring around 100 DFS points. The issue with Taira is that this will be a big step up in competition, and Perez will have better takedown defense than he has faced thus far. We have seen Taira rocked before by lesser fighters, and Perez is coming off a KO of Mateusz Nicolau.

Value Plays ($7900 and Below)

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke $7700 - Nuerdanbieke finds himself in a pick 'em fight against Melqui Costa. Both fighters have had their ups and downs, but Nuerdanbieke has experience on his side. In his three UFC wins, Nuerdanbieke averages over 105 DFS points. This is a fight that could go either way but the scoring upside of Nuerdanbieke at this price point puts him into consideration.

Alex Perez $7600 - Perez is coming off a knockout of Mateusz Nicolau in his most recent bout. He gets the main event and a 5-round fight which projects him as the highest score among value plays this week. He has fought the best fighters in the division and will be a big step up in competition for Taira. If his takedown defense holds up, he will have a very real chance of landing a kill shot on the unproven Japanese prospect.

Carli Judice $7200 - Judice is making her UFC debut against a fighter in Gabriella Fernandes that is 0-2 in the UFC. While Judice only has 4 professional fights, she is the much more active fighter when it comes to her striking. She has high volume, and that could be enough for her to win a fight that I expect to go to the judges.

Cash Game Lineup:

Asu Almabaev $9500

Nate Maness $9400

Tatsuro Taira $8600

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke $7700

Alex Perez $7600

Carli Judice $7200

UFC Vegas 93 Picks and Projections

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