I do not believe for one minute that people are able to consistently win their leagues year after year. For someone to tell me they have a skill at selecting players and predicting outcomes with any accuracy greater than a flip of the coin on a weekly basis is a misnomer. I will give you a list of supposedly top ten players who have defied consistent predictability : J. Cutler, R. Wilson, J. Cameron, A Dalton, and G. Bernard. There are very few NFL players who would be considered consistent and they are the exception to the rule. Names like P. Manning, A. Luck, A. Rogers, J. Nelson, J Graham, D Murray, A Foster, A Brown are in this category. So unless if you can some how draft a team of all of the consistent players like these or trade for them from unsuspecting owners, you would only win a league by blind luck. SOS represents a 10-15% change in the outcome on average at best. One can predict long term trends if enough empirical data is available, but if one variable fixed or not changes, the prediction is no longer valid. How many variables are there in any game on any given Sunday? I rest my case.