Fantasy Upside
Rookie fourth-round pick Kenneth Dixon will get every opportunity to challenge starter Justin Forsett and sophomore Javorius Allen for playing time this year. Dixon was a productive runner in college who had 19 rushing touchdowns last season for Louisiana Tech. He runs with a nice blend of speed and power, and was one of the best tackle-breaking backs in the draft. If he can win the job and get some protection up front, Dixon could be in line for a productive rookie season.
Fantasy Downside
Forsett should remain entrenched as the starter as long as he’s healthy following last year’s broken arm. Additionally, while Dixon did catch 64 balls over the last two years, Javorius Allen is already an accomplished receiver out of the backfield, making third down touches hotly contested in the Ravens offense. Dixon also may show a tendency to dance around in the backfield and will need to become a more decisive runner if he’s going to stand a chance to win playing time.
2016 Bottom Line
Dixon has a good chance of making an impact if he can win time, but he’s just as likely to finish his rookie year with minimal touches, making him a big fantasy risk. He’s being drafted in rounds 10-12 right now, which is probably a bit high for a player in a crowded backfield, but if you can get him towards the end of your draft as a risk-reward option, then the payoff could be worthwhile.
Update:
With Forsett not making the final 53-man roster, Dixon is a step closer to playing time. However, his value remains primarily in dynasty leagues as Terrance West seems to have the inside track on the starting job.
