Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Drew Brees 27.4 fantasy points (actual 26.7)

2) Joe Flacco 288 passing yards (actual 298)

3) Philip Rivers would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 339)

4) Tom Brady 26.8 fantasy points (actual 27.5)

5) Aaron Rodgers 25.3 fantasy points (actual 26.7)

6) Jordy Nelson 4.2 receptions (actual = 4)

7) Pierre Garcon 43 receiving yards (actual 47)

8) Matthew Stafford projected pass TD 2.2 (actual 2)

9) LeSean McCoy 21 receiving yards (actual 23)

10) Jared Cook would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 73 yards below average)

11) Alex Smith 277 passing yards (actual 275)

12) Demaryius Thomas 5.0 receptions (actual = 5)

13) Emmanuel Sanders 76 receiving yards (actual 72)

14) Antonio Brown would have a 100 yard receiving game (actual 101)

15) Cam Newton 227 passing yards (actual 237)

16) Kyle Rudolph 42 receiving yards (actual 41)

17) Terrelle Pryor 19 receiving yards (actual 20)

18) Andrew Luck 23.4 fantasy points (actual 22.6)

19) Kirk Cousins 312 passing yards (actual 301)

20) Tavon Austin 4.3 fantasy points (actual 4.4)

21) Keenan Allen 87 receiving yards (actual 90)

22) DeAndre Hopkins 13.5 fantasy points (actual 13.1)

23) Travis Kelce 10.2 fantasy points (actual 10.0)

24) Derek Carr would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 75 yards below average)

25) Carlos Hyde 68 rushing yards (actual 63)

26) Brandin Cooks would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 113 yards below average)

27) Donte Moncrief 7.9 fantasy points (actual 7.6)

28) Paul Richardson 47 receiving yards (actual 50)

29) Eric Ebron would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 68 yards above average)

30) James White 13.1 fantasy points (actual 13.7)

31) John Brown 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

32) Albert Wilson 46 receiving yards (actual 43)

33) Melvin Gordon projected rushing TDs 0.9 (actual 1)

34) Nelson Agholor 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

35) Jamison Crowder would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 29 yards above average)

36) Stefon Diggs 11.6 fantasy points (actual 11.6)

37) Phillip Dorsett would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 30 yards below average)

38) Jesse James would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 37 yards below average)

39) Chris Conley 2.2 fantasy points (actual 2.1)

40) Tyrell Williams 6.4 fantasy points (actual 6.6)

41) Jared Goff would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 321)

42) Ezekiel Elliott 33 receiving yards (actual 30)

43) Alex Collins 58 rushing yards (actual 59)

44) Laquon Treadwell 22 receiving yards (actual 21)

45) Will Fuller would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 73 yards below average)

46) Sterling Shepard 74 receiving yards (actual 75)

47) Nick Vannett 4.2 fantasy points (actual 4.3)

48) Robby Anderson 3.0 receptions (actual = 3)

49) Chester Rogers 6.5 fantasy points (actual 6.6)

50) Kareem Hunt 95 total yards (actual 94 yards)

51) Jamaal Williams 5.5 fantasy points (actual 5.2)

52) Cooper Kupp 5.7 receptions (actual = 6)

53) George Kittle 8.0 fantasy points (actual 8.3)

54) Matt Breida 12.6 fantasy points (actual 12.1)

55) Keelan Cole 70 receiving yards (actual 70)

56) Kendrick Bourne 3.5 fantasy points (actual 3.3)

57) Josh Allen would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual 82)

58) Sam Darnold 18.4 fantasy points (actual 18.4)

59) Saquon Barkley 123 total yards (actual 129 yards)

60) Kerryon Johnson 69 rushing yards (actual 70)

61) Phillip Lindsay 80 total yards (actual 81 yards)

62) Nyheim Hines 46 receiving yards (actual 45)

63) Calvin Ridley would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 50 yards below average)

64) Antonio Callaway 3.0 receptions (actual = 3)

65) Mark Andrews 15 receiving yards (actual 16)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 5 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 305 1.7 299 2.0 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 321 1.7 281 1.9 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 198 1.5 189 1.1 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 5 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 104 1.4 107 1.0 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 77 0.7 74 0.5 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 51 0.2 45 0.3 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 5 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 98 0.5 89 0.4 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 48 0.2 67 0.5 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 48 0.4 46 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2018, w6