Fantasy Debate: Todd Gurley vs. Leonard Fournette
Todd Gurley is being drafted as the 15th running back off the board in FFPC drafts over the last month—Leonard Fournette is going off as the RB17. In this debate, Jennifer Eakins will argue for Gurley while TJ Hernandez takes the side of Fournette.
The Case For Todd Gurley
Jennifer: Both of these backs have their share of risk involved and even have some hazardous similarities to mull over, but my money is on Gurley to finish ahead of Fournette, and here’s why.
Despite a lack of perceived consistency from year to year, Gurley has been one of the most productive running backs in the game since entering the league in 2015. He’s seen a minimum of 250 touches in each of the last five years, and joins just five other running backs in having five or more high-usage seasons over the past decade. With large volume comes fantasy goodness and Gurley has delivered.
Since his rookie year, the 25-year old has ended as an RB1 in half-PPR scoring every single season. He finished as RB7, RB16, RB1, RB2 and RB14 respectively, and despite dealing with chronic knee issues, he has still managed to play in 73-of-80 contests in his career.
We’ve seen Gurley handle a three-down workload in Los Angeles and his move to Atlanta could actually signify an uptick in usage. The Falcons ranked 13th in targets to running backs in 2019, while the Rams were second-to-last in passes to their backs. Devonta Freeman leaves behind 17.4 touches per game and there’s also Austin Hooper’s 75 vacated touches, which could trickle down to Gurley in the short passing game.
Gurley is also running behind a better offensive line than he had to deal with in Los Angeles in 2019, as they ranked second-to-last overall according to Pro Football Focus and 25th in run-blocking. Atlanta invested heavily in their line in 2019, but they ended just a few spots better than the Rams due to injury and some poor play from their LG position. With health on their side and new depth at center due to the NFL Draft, Gurley could see an improvement in his running lanes in 2020.
There’s also the potential for an underrated touchdown ceiling for Gurley in this new offense, as Atlanta was third in the league in red-zone scoring attempts per game last season, and no player has more rushing touchdowns than Gurley (29) since 2018. His additional five scores via the air don’t hurt, either.
Last season was an RB14 finish for Gurley and was considered to be a bust by some people’s fantasy standards. As his ADP currently stands, he’s being drafted around that same spot and is in the perfect position to produce there.
As far as health concerns go, Atlanta is a pass-heavy offense so Gurley shouldn’t be asked to handle 20+ touches which benefits a guy with durability concerns. If he can maintain the rushing role vacated by Freeman and bests the 49 targets he saw in 2019, Gurley has the potential outperform his ADP by a few spots, which I just don’t see happening for Fournette.
My case against the Jacksonville back is fairly simple in that the Jaguars just aren’t that into him. They’ve declined his fifth-year option and tried to deal the 25-year old during the NFL Draft to no takers. There has also been chatter about more of a throw-heavy approach for the Jags in 2020, and they even brought in pass-catching darling Chris Thompson to reunite with OC Jay Gruden.
With a new regime not high on Fournette and his own health always a concern, it just doesn’t appear he’ll see that same 265 carries and 100 targets from 2019. I’d bank on the guy with more touchdowns in a single season than Fournette has put up his entire NFL career thus far.
The Case For Leonard Fournette
TJ: The argument for Leonard Fournette is two-fold—he should largely maintain his role in Jacksonville from last season and he has unrecognized upside after falling well below expectation in the touchdown column in 2019.
Throughout the offseason, there have been plenty of reasons to be concerned about Fournette’s fantasy outlook in 2020. Fournette’s name was mentioned repeatedly in trade rumors leading up to the NFL Draft, the Jaguars declined his fifth-year contract option, and the additions of OC Jay Gruden and quarterbacks coach Ben McAdoo suggest a shift to a more pass-heavy offense than last season. All these factors pushed down Fournette’s price in early best ball drafts after his RB9 finish in 2019, but the market hasn’t moved in reaction to new information.
While the trade talks and contract situation are alarming, the most telling thing about Jacksonville’s intentions for Fournette in 2020 is the fact that they didn’t add much to their backfield except oft-injured Chris Thompson. If—and that’s a huge if—Thompson can stay healthy, he will certainly cut into Fournette’s 100 targets that he saw last season but it’s clear that Fournette is more than capable of staying on the field for three downs. In all likelihood, the Jaguars intend to squeeze as much juice out of Fournette while he’s still in Jacksonville and it would benefit him to have as big of a year as possible since he’ll be looking for a contract in 2021.
As for a more pass-heavy offense, there’s simply no one else on the roster to hand the ball off to when they do run. Even the most pass-heavy offenses are still going to offer a fair number of carries—the Falcons led the league in passing rate last season and still handed it off 315 times. Without much competition for carries, it’s reasonable that Fournette approaches the 265 rushes that he saw in 2019. His likely dip in targets should be offset by reverting to the mean in touchdown rate.
There were 50 running backs with 100 or more touches in 2019 and none scored at a lower rate than Fournette (0.9% of touches). In fact, the Jaguars back became just the fifth player since 1992—when targets became an official stat—to see at least 100 targets in a season without a receiving touchdown. Given the average scoring rate for running backs—a touchdown on 3% of touches—Fournette should have scored roughly 10 times last year instead of three. Even if we drop his touches to 250 for 2020, an average scoring rate would still yield 7–8 scores.
Fournette’s role shouldn’t change dramatically in 2020 and an uptick in scores should keep him in the conversation as a top-12 running back, which is likely Gurley’s ceiling.
Earlier in the offseason, I discussed Gurley’s new home in Atlanta and why he was fairly priced in fantasy. The movement for Gurley from Los Angeles was a fairly lateral one in that Gurley and Devonta Freeman saw almost identical volume last season. Gurley’s RB14 finish, however, was buoyed by 14 total touchdowns. In the role that he is taking over, Freeman scored just six times and finished as the RB21. Fournette has concerns about a new coaching staff but Gurley is going to the most pass-heavy team in the league that continues the trend near the goal line—no team threw at a higher rate inside their opponent’s 10-yard line than the Falcons last season.
We saw Fournette’s role produce a top-10 back last season. Gurley will be lucky with a top-15 finish, assuming his knee can hold up for another season.
