DFS Tight End Analysis: Divisional Round

DFS Tight End Analysis: Divisional Round

By TJ Hernandez (Director of DFS), on Jan 11, 2018

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

Follow TJ Hernandez on Twitter: @TJHernandez.

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

*This week, FanDuel is running two main slates, one on Saturday and one on Sunday. The following will reflect pricing for the Saturday-Sunday slate which is currently reflected in our Lineup Generator. For a more in-depth analysis of pricing across slates, look for this week’s FanDuel Slate breakdown.

Chalk

  • Ownership is expected to be slanted heavily towards three tight ends but Rob Gronkowski ($8,500 FD/$7,100 DK) is expected to be the most popular player of the bunch. Facing a Titans defense ranked 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to tight ends, Gronk has one of the most favorable matchups of any player on the slate and New England is favored by 13.5 points with an implied point total over 30. Tennessee faced the sixth-highest passing rate in the red zone this season and Alex Smith converted both of his red zone attempts into scores versus the Titans last week. Prior to his goose egg in Week 17, Gronk had scored at least 17.7 PPR points in four straight games. However, if Rex Burkhead and Chris Hogan return to action this week the floor of all skill players on the Pats would be significantly reduced. Gronk is priced $1,300 more than the TE2 on both sites, so opting for a cheaper option at tight will naturally lead to a different overall lineup build.

Studs

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