Stacking the Deck: FanDuel & DraftKings Stacks for the Divisional Round
Welcome back to Stacking the Deck. This season at 4for4 we will be providing subscribers with Value Reports and Stack Value Reports that value every stack in terms of projected points/$. We also use our Adjusted Fantasy Points Against (aFPA) metric heavily in the column. What’s new this year is we know have the have the advantage of putting into practice two great offseason studies from my colleague, Senior DFS Editor, Chris Raybon: The Definitive Guide to Stacking on FanDuel and The Definitive Guide to Stacking on DraftKings.
I mentioned this last week, but small slates are something I have experimented with a ton this year and I have three main takeaways:
1. Don't fade the studs.
2. Don't be afraid to game stack and secure volume in games with high Vegas totals.
3. Don't fade the chalk stacks completely, it is better to differentiate those stacks through unique correlation plays.
Actually, I’m going to add one more thing to this list. Chris Raybon reminded me of a very good point earlier this week:
4. “You probably only need one true contrarian play. Last week top lineups usually had one of Cobb, Rawls… not both.”
As always, we are going to focus on positive correlations in this column, but also put a higher emphasis on leverage plays in GPPs.
Dak Prescott ($7,700) & Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) & Terrance Williams ($4,500) vs. GB
This is one of my favorite types of stacks on a small slate. Target a Dallas offense with a high point total (28.5, second-highest), while securing as much touchdown equity as you can. Terrance Williams could be a great leverage play off of Dez Bryant. He is also cheaper, will be lower owned, and has a better individual matchup. Williams is the type of low-owned correlation play I like to take a stand on at min price. It also helps that he will run the majority of his routes against Damarious Randall. Williams has a 17.21 percent target share over the past four games, barely trailing Bryant at 20.49 percent. It’s a great all-around matchup for Dallas. Green Bay is #29 and #31 in QB and WR aFPA, respectively. They also come in at 24th against RBs. The Prescott-Elliott-Williams stack is our highest QB/RB/WR2 combination from our FanDuel Stack Value Reports this week.