Bales Goes Deep: A Minimalistic Approach to Daily Fantasy Sports

Bales Goes Deep: A Minimalistic Approach to Daily Fantasy Sports

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Dec 8, 2015

Jonathan Bales's picture

Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

The great Chinese writer and inventor Lin Yutang once remarked, “The wisdom of life consists in the elimination of non-essentials.”

I’m going to use this quote as the basis for this article.


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My Start to DFS

I’ve been pretty transparent about the fact that I sucked at daily fantasy when I first started playing. I didn’t really have much of a plan and I just sort of picked guys with little justification.

Then I realized I wasn’t profitable and decided to change it. So I created a model. It was my first time creating a model and it was awful. I backtested the predictive qualities of pretty much every stat I could find, threw them all together, and thought I was freaking Nate Silver.

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