Week 15 DraftKings Optimal Plays

Week 15 DraftKings Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Dec 12, 2013

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

Last week was weird. I’m not sure if DraftKings slightly altered their pricing or what, but the salaries were TIGHT. The quality of the lineups was lower than in past weeks, which I think was reflected in some pretty low fantasy scores (despite the highest-scoring week in NFL history).

That’s not a bad thing, at all. I typically favor sharp pricing over a loose salary cap because it increases the skill required to win. One of the issues last week was that there weren’t any true bargain bin players who offered a high probability of legitimate production, so it made it more difficult to form a team.

This week, though, I think there are some more mid- and low-priced options to help you build a potent lineup. Here are my top bargains on DraftKings in Week 15.


Week 15 DraftKings Bargains

QB Kirk Cousins @ATL $5400

Is everyone on the entire site going to be playing Cousins? Maybe, but I’ll be one of them. If you’re playing multiple tournament lineups, you can diversify a bit just to hedge, but the idea that you need to go against the grain just for the sake of being contrarian is silly. You should bypass players you know will be highly owned only when there’s comparable value.

Cousins costs $100 less than Matt Flynn. He’s an unknown, but he’s been efficient in his limited NFL work and he has an enticing matchup. With Pierre Garcon as one of the top wide receiver values, the Cousins-Garcon connection makes for perhaps the top DraftKings stack, and one that will allow for plenty of flexibility elsewhere.


RB Le’Veon Bell vs. CIN $6200

Chris Ogabannaya is a popular choice right now, but I don’t think he’s going to see the necessary workload to give you a legitimate return. It’s difficult to find low-priced running backs with sizeable workloads when there aren’t injuries. We had Joique Bell and Marcel Reece last week, so keep an eye out for late-game scratches.

As of now, though, the most favorable price-workload combo player is probably Le’Veon Bell. At $6200, he’s a mid-tier option, not a bottom-dweller, but the other backs in that range either don’t have comparable projected workloads or they have much worse matchups.

Bell’s matchup isn’t ideal, but that’s priced into his salary. He’s been producing as a receiver lately with 12 catches in the Steelers’ past two games.


WR Michael Crabtree @TB $4000

Crabtree has six total catches in his two games back from injury, but he had eight targets last week. The Niners are working him back into the offense—he played 60 of 68 snaps in Week 14 after missing 25 snaps in his first game—so you don’t need to worry too much about playing time.

The concern here is of course Darrelle Revis, but I’ll take Crabtree at this price tag just for the plays on which Revis isn’t covering him.


TE Garrett Graham @IND $4200

In Graham, you’re looking at a player with two games of at least seven catches and a touchdown over the past month. He’s averaged nearly six receptions and 70 yards per game over that stretch, which is more than enough production to justify his price tag, given that he’s a threat to score. He’s playing every snap in Houston, and with Jordan Cameron no longer a low-priced option, Graham is the bargain bin tight end with the highest upside.


Week 15 DraftKings Optimal Lineups

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