DraftKings Reignmakers Tiers: Risk and Reward

Reignmakers Card Tiers

Each Reignmaker card is randomly assigned a serial number out of a total number of available cards. Card serials come into play in Reignmaker contests when there are two or more identical lineups entered into a contest resulting in a tie; when this occurs, the serial numbers for each card in a lineup are added up, and the lowest total breaks the tie. There are five different tiers of available Reignmakers cards, and the total pool of cards available decreases as you move up tiers.

Depending on the pack drop, Core cards can have serial number counts as high as 58,825 from the Core Superstar Set drop, while the highest serial from the Momentum Set is 3,000.

Rare cards max out at a serial of 982 from the Wired Set, while the Momentum Set is capped at 600.

The highest serial you can pull for an Elite card is 230 from the Wired Set, and the Elite Momentum set is limited to 150 card serials.

Legendary cards are numbered from 1-40 in the Wired Set, and max out at 20 for the Momentum Set. Finally, every single Reignmaker card has a 1-of-1 serial.

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Reignmakers Contest Tiers

The best way to understand the different contest tiers is to compare the same contest across each tier. The Fiat Frenzy is the main-slate contest that draws the highest number of entries per week, and draws from the 10 or so games usually played on Sunday Afternoons.

Core Tier Fiat Frenzy

The Core contest has a total prize pool of $50,000, paying out $5,000 to 1st place, $2,500 to 2nd, $1,500 to 3rd, and $1,000 to 4th. The remaining $40,000 is split in descending amounts from $750 to 5th down to $5 from 1,901st to 4,150th place. With entries in the neighborhood of 25,000, that amounts to an average payout of $12.50 for the top 17% of entrants. If you remove the highest and lowest prize amounts, the median payout becomes $5.00.

I took the Week 9 winning lineups for each tier and looked at the marketplace cost for each player in the lineup to arrive at a lineup cost. Though not exact given player value fluctuation since Week 9 (something tells me a Joe Mixon card was less expensive last week at all tier levels), it gives a decent ballpark for the cost to field a lineup from the marketplace. At $50 invested, the $12.50 average payout amounts to a 20% return on your investment. The $5 average that excludes the top prize is a 10% return. Not awful, but of course your eyes are on that $5,000 pot, which amounts to a .004% chance at winning and earning a 10,000% ROI. If you're just aiming at, say, $50 or more, you've got a 0.22% chance in a field of 25,000.

Now, if you're an experienced and informed DFS player, you can assume you have an information and strategy advantage over a certain percentage of the field, so the numbers aren't quite that stark, and a single player wildly outperforming expectations (cough, cough Joe Mixon in Week 9) can be the difference between a single or triple-digit payout. But there are better risk/reward propositions at higher levels.

Rare Tier Fiat Frenzy

The Rare contest has a total prize pool of $80,000, paying out $10,000 to 1st place, $5,000 to 2nd, $3,000 to 3rd, $2,000 to 4th, $1,000 to 5th, and the remaining $59,000 split into descending amounts from $750 for 6th down to $5 for 1,629th. Entry totals are likely to end up somewhere around 8,000, which amounts to a $49 average prize.

The cost to field last week's lineup is $194.32 at today's market prices. At that cost, the $49 average payout amounts to a 25% ROI. The $30 median payout equates to a 15% return. Your shot at hitting that $10,000 to prize is .013%. Still low, but nearly triple the chance of the Core contest. Assuming an even field, aiming to win $200+ is likely to happen .188% of the time.

Elite Tier Fiat Frenzy

The Elite contest has a total prize pool of $250,000, paying out $100,000 to 1st place, $20,000 to 2nd, $10,000 to 3rd, $5,000 to 4th, $3,000 to 5th, $2,000 to 6th, $1,500 to 7th & 8th, $1,250 to 9th & 10th, $1,000 to 11th-15th. The split of the remaining $99,500 descends from a 16th-20th place $750 down to $75 at 867th. With an approximate entry total of just 2,000, the average prize is $75.

The current marketplace cost to field Week 9's winning lineup is $1,705.00, which equates to a 18.7% return for the average payout, and a 4% return for the median payout. Assuming a flat playing field in terms of skill and strategy, you've got a a .05% chance of hitting the top prize, which would be a 5,685% return. You have a 0.4% chance at cashing $1,500 or more.

Legendary Tier Fiat Frenzy

Total prize pool: $100,000. 1st place gets $10,000, 2nd gets $5,000, 3rd is $3,000, 4th is $2,500, 5th is $2,250, 6th is $2,000, 7th is $1,750, 8th & 9th are $1,500, 10th & 11th are $1,240, and $1,000 goes to 12th & 13th. The remaining $66,000 is split from $800 to 14th & 15th down to $300 at 191st. Only around 550 brave souls project to enter this one, making the average prize $524.

Marketplace cost for last week's the winning lineup: $4,505. That means an average 12% return, and a 7.7% median return. 0.18% is your chance to hit the $10,000 top prize, and it's 0.4% to hit $5,000 or above.

Reigmaker Tier Fiat Frenzy

A prize pool of $125,000 may not seem comparably high, but the pool shrinks to around 160 entrance at this price point. The pool pays out 44 players, which is nearly 28% of the entries, with a top prize of $25,000 and a bottom prize of $1,000 awarded to 29th place to 44th place.

By the current marketplace, Week 9's winner had a $15,212 cost, for an average return of 18.6%, and a median return of 2.9%. Statistically, you could expect to hit the top prize 0.63% of the time, and $15,000+ (1st or 2nd) at a 1.3% clip.

Takeaways

The first thing bearing a mention is that all of these contests are the Reignmaker equivalents of GPPs, which are always contests with extremely large fields of entries and a very low percentage of the total entrants cashing. There are also plenty of single-game and double-up Reignmaker contests, so if anything, looking at the raw numbers should reinforce the importance of balancing your contests between growing your bankroll in double-ups with higher-percentage winning outcomes, and the Fiat Frenzy where you have a smaller shot at a large prize.

This is also the first year of Draftkings Reignmakers, and as such the userbase is still growing, meaning (presumably) fewer sharks to contend with than other forms of DFS. Also, the figures above assumes entire lineups were purchased from the marketplace, when in reality some of the higher-end cards were pulled from packs. Elites are pulled from a $70 Rare pack 34%, and Legendaries and Reignmakers 3.3% of the time. There's a 13% chance to pull a Legendary from a $320 Momentum Elite pack, and a 1% chance at a Reignmaker. A $1,600 Legendary pack guarantees 2 Elite cards and 1 Legendary with a 10% chance of that being a Reignmaker. Landing any Elite-plus card from these packs reduces the total projected cost of a lineup, provided the cards at those tiers are competitive.

Finally, consider the fact that any set of Reignmaker cards can be played in lineups every week, and if you've got a larger pool of cards, you can enter multiple contests in any given week, increasing your chances at a larger cash without paying entry fees. So crossed fingers and toes for everyone out there ripping packs, as a couple of great pulls can give you access to some pretty good-looking prize pools.