Streaming Defenses: Week 9 Targets
As discussed previously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 9.
The Steelers, our top pick, matched their projection with nine points from the predictable elements. That came from four sacks, two interceptions and only 14 points allowed. (Vegas, who gave the Steelers a 14.25 point implied team total, were spot on.)
The Colts slightly outperformed their projection. They had more sacks than forecast and allowed fewer points than Vegas expected. However, with no interceptions, this translated to only one point above our projection.
As in many prior weeks, our lowest projected pick was the underperformer. This time, that was the Lions. They beat our expectation for sacks but had no interceptions and allowed 26 points to the Giants, nearly five points above the Vegas implied team total. (Those who played them did fine, however, due to a defensive touchdown.)
The evidence that projections below 6.5 points or so, like the Lions last week, are less reliable continues to pile up. Keep that in mind for this week's picks below.
Week 9 Projections
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