4for4 Mailbag Week 5
Welcome to the weekly 4for4 Mailbag, where I answer your questions about all aspects of fantasy football including redraft leagues, DFS strategy, advice on handling angry football widows, and even some pop culture. Since it will be published on Thursdays throughout the season, I won’t be tackling waiver wire advice, so be sure to check out 4for4’s valuable articles on streaming and the like, to aid with your weekly roster decisions.
To submit a question for consideration, tweet me @themondaymommy or simply use the hashtag #4for4mailbag.
@wburdett11: Steve Smith ROS [rest of season] outlook? West or Dixon ROS?
JE: Steve Smith Sr. is one of those players that we have all been waiting to fall apart physically, you know, because he’s old. To be very clear, the 37 year-old WR is football old, not life old.
After four weeks of play, Smith is currently sitting as WR27, with his best game last week, racking up 17.1 PPR fantasy points versus the Raiders. Flacco clearly trusts the veteran wideout, as he leads the Ravens’ offense in targets through Week 4, with 37 to Dennis Pitta’s 29 and Mike Wallace’s 28. Glimpsing at the rest of the season, Baltimore only plays two teams who are tough against the WR position in New England and Philadelphia, during Weeks 14 and 15. The rest of their opponents boast an average of 35.36 schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the WR position per game.
As long as Smith is healthy, his outlook looks good the final three quarters of the season and should continue to be rostered and in your lineup. With Terrence West and Kenneth Dixon, it’s tough to determine what will happen with this cloudy Baltimore running back committee. West has certainly earned the starting nod for now, but the talented and young Dixon is set to return.
I believe that Dixon is the future for the Ravens backfield but it is all a wait and see approach for me. If you have the room to keep both I would try to, at least for a few weeks, until it becomes less murky at the RB position for the Ravens.
On a different note, am I to assume you’re a Ravens homer or did you just randomly end up with three Baltimore players on your squad that you have questions about?
@MooseOnaHill: Would you rather have Evans or Gurley on your dynasty team?
JE: I will preface my answer to this question with the fact that I am a huge Gurley fan, a ridiculous UGA homer that I will never apologize for or hide. That being said, the decision to keep just one of these talented players would really depend on your league’s scoring for WR and RBs.
Both of these guys have bright NFL futures ahead of them, however, are on teams that have struggled offensively so far in 2016. Since there are more stud WRs in the league than RBs, unless they are scored more heavily than the runners, I would hang on to Gurley in the hopes that LA can bolster their offensive line and quarterback situation in the near future.
You can’t go wrong with Evans for the long haul either -- that’s just my somewhat biased take on the two of them moving forward.
@MatthewLamb11: Is Tajae Sharpe droppable for a high upside RB stash like Dion Lewis? Am deep at WR and barring injuries, he will ride the bench.
JE: Funny that you mention Tajae Sharpe and droppable, as I sent him packing this week in favor of a more productive WR in one of my redraft leagues. Sharpe has such enormous potential and after a favorable training camp and preseason, was set to get WR1 targets in that Titans offense.
However, Marcus Mariota seems to be driving the struggle bus this season and is currently sitting at QB26 in PPR fantasy points, behind Blaine Gabbert and Brock Osweiler. DeMarco Murray seems to be the bright star in this Tennessee offense thus far with a whopping 96.6 PPR points, an average of 24.2 per game. The remainder of the Titans schedule is a mixed bag when it comes to defending the WR position, so it certainly won’t be an easy road for Sharpe moving forward.
If you are deep at WR and are in need of some RB depth for the rest of the season, I say do it. Set Sharpe free in exchange for Dion Lewis, who could be game changer for the Patriots upon his return, or he could not. Fantasy football is all risk-reward, anyway.
@aMnSdUy: Charles Sims or Sterling Shepard in a full PPR flex?
JE: I am going to assume you mean for just Week 5 and not the rest of the season for both of these guys, however we all know what happens when one assumes.
Looking at one of our favorite metrics for assessing who to start in close decisions, the 4for4 schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, it looks like Sterling Shepard is the guy to go with this week. The Giants will head to Green Bay to face the Packers, who so far this season rank the second lowest in aFPA with a monstrous 48.4 PPR points per game allowed to the WR position through four weeks.
Although Charles Sims has been decent filling in for the injured Doug Martin, the Buccaneers get Carolina in Week 5, who have been stingy versus the run with an aFPA of 19.8 to RBs so far in 2016. I do think that their point totals won’t be too far off from each other, but I do give the edge to Shepard on this one.
@levinem9: My wife’s best friend is getting married this weekend, on a Sunday no less! There’s no way out of it, how do I manage?
JE: Very carefully.
Getting married during football season is a tricky maneuver but it can be done with thoughtful planning. My husband and I, for example, did get married in the fall, however it was a Saturday, and a bye week for my alma mater Georgia Bulldogs. That way, people missed a few random college games but were able to nurse their hangovers during a full slate of NFL games on Sunday.
This couple obviously has no regard for football degenerates and should be ashamed of themselves. I’m kidding there but yikes, a Sunday nuptials during football season is just brutal. Your only option is to sneak to the bar, if there is one or be sure your phone is fully charged for updates and highlights.
Since your wife is BFFs with the bride, she should be otherwise engaged so that can pull off your football viewing with little interferences. Be sly though, because if you get caught you may end up on the couch for a night or two.
As always thanks so much for all your submissions this week. See you all next Thursday for the 4for4 Mailbag!