4for4 Mailbag Week 15
Welcome to the weekly 4for4 Mailbag, where I answer your questions about all aspects of fantasy football, including redraft leagues, DFS strategy, advice on handling angry football widows, and even some pop culture. Since it will be published on Thursdays throughout the season, I won’t be tackling waiver wire advice, so be sure to check out 4for4’s valuable articles on streaming and the like to aid with your weekly roster decisions.
To submit a question for consideration, tweet me @themondaymommy or simply use the hashtag #4for4mailbag!
@carloscantu_007: Am I starting too many Falcons? Non PPR, 1-2-3-1. Matt Ryan, Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel and Matt Bryant. They’re the best on roster/wire.
JE: I must start by asking, how did you end up with so many Atlanta guys on your squad to begin with? Sure, they’ve been hot at times this season and are leading the NFC South with an 8-5 record, but four players from the same offense is not something you see every day.
Now to actually answer your question, I say go for it. Considering the fact that each player you have is at a different position, one won’t hinder the other. I actually love having a QB/WR stack and even a QB/RB combo, especially one like Ryan to Coleman since his yards per catch is among the best in the league for RBs.
The other obvious reason to feel good about having almost half your starters from the same NFL team is their Week 15 opponent. Enter the San Francisco 49ers, one of the punching bags of league this season with a pitiful 1-12 record. At 4for4, we like to use our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric or aFPA, to determine the best possible scenarios for your rosters. The 49ers rank the third worst in the NFL when to comes to the WR position with an aFPA of 27.6 in standard leagues, the fourth worst for QB scoring with an aFPA of 18.9 and are dead last at defending RBs with an aFPA of 29.3.
One thing I would keep an eye on is the health of both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, because Gabriel’s targets and involvement will hinge on whether they play or not. Gabriel is the only one that isn’t an automatic starter here.
Good luck, go get that title!
@bradajenkins: How do we think about what to with Brady this week?
JE: This is an excellent question and one that I am struggling with, as well. For those of you who are not already aware, I am a Broncos homer and openly root for the orange and blue.
When it comes to fantasy football, there are many rules and strategies to take into consideration. In both the recent past as well as the present, two of those include don’t play Denver’s opposing QB, and always play Tom Brady, because he is matchup proof. What to do when those rules collide?
According to the 4for4 schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric (aFPA), the Broncos are the toughest team in the league when it comes to QB points, only giving up 10.1 per week. They also hold the honor of being the stiffest versus WRs with an aFPA of only 20.7 to opposing WR corps. To take it one metric further, the Broncos are number one in the NFL at defending entire offenses, allowing just 53.3 fantasy points in standard leagues and 71.3 PPR points to entire offensive position players.
We also have to take Brady and the Patriots’ record in the Mile High City into consideration when evaluating whether to roll the dice and start the future Hall-of-Famer this week, or give him a comfy seat on your bench. Since 2001, handsome Tom and company have played in Denver nine times and Brady is 2-7 in those matchups, including an 0-3 post season record. To make matters worse, their two wins in the past 15 years were against teams led by Danny Kanell (2003) and Tim Tebow (2011) at QB. Ouch.
It’s a mystery why New England plays so poorly in Denver with Brady under center. One can only speculate; is it the cold, the altitude, the rabid fan base who have sold out every single Broncos game for the past 45 or so seasons? No one knows for sure, but we do know that Brady will give it everything he has on Sunday afternoon.
My advice on this game is to start him with caution. Even though Brady is on track for another NFL MVP award, if you have another safer option I would probably go there. If he is still your best shot at advancing to your fantasy championship, then tango with the guy who brought you to the dance. (Or something like that).
Since I was asked a bunch of straight up “Who should I start” questions, I’m going to just lump them all together here in rapid fire style:
@Jack_NUTELLA_: Luck or Palmer?
JE: These two will be very close this week, as both Indianapolis and Arizona are currently sitting as the 10th seed in their respective conferences, fighting for a playoff berth. Palmer gets the easier matchup, but Luck has been playing better as of late. Luck with the slight edge here.
@Graysonfire: Rivers or Mariota?
JE: Again we are looking at two very similar projections for these two QBs. Both San Diego and Tennessee are still alive in the playoff hunt, with the Titans in a more realistic scenario. Rivers gets Oakland at home in sunny CA, while Mariota will face a stout KC D in freezing Arrowhead Stadium. I’d roll with Rivers this week.
@JPierreAZ: Watkins or J Jones?
JE: This one is very cut and dry in my opinion. If Julio Jones is over the turf/sprained toe and on the field on Sunday, he’s a must-start against the 49ers’ soft secondary. He remains truly questionable at this time so keep your eye on his progress. Atlanta could realistically decide to keep him sidelined even if he’s good to go against this weak San Francisco D. If he’s out, play Watkins and hope he shows up against a mediocre Browns’ D.
As always, thanks so much for all of your submissions this week and every week. There will only be one more 4for4 Mailbag this season in Week 16, so please feel free to ask anything that’s on your mind. Good luck to all of you in your playoff matchups -go get that $, or trophy, or other assorted fantasy prize!