FanDuel Week 16 Values & Top Plays
How Do Kickers Perform Relative to Salary on FanDuel?
Over the past few weeks, I've been using the intro to take a look how much ROI each position returns relative to salary. I've already covered QB, RB, WR, and D/ST.
This week, I've analyzed kickers, a position many DFS players would like removed all together because they argue there is not much skill involved in selecting one. Do the numbers bear that out?
| Salary ($) | # | Avg Value | Avg FP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4500 | 53 | 1.68 | 7.57 |
| 4600 | 32 | 1.51 | 6.94 |
| 4700 | 49 | 1.71 | 8.02 |
| 4800 | 55 | 1.49 | 7.16 |
| 4900 | 61 | 1.68 | 8.23 |
| 5000 | 59 | 1.83 | 9.15 |
| 5100 | 34 | 1.45 | 7.41 |
| 5200 | 32 | 1.69 | 8.78 |
| 5300 | 37 | 1.52 | 8.08 |
| 5400 | 21 | 1.89 | 10.19 |
| 5500 | 8 | 1.48 | 8.13 |
| 5600 | 2 | 1.43 | 8.00 |
| Total | 443 | 1.64 | 8.08 |
It turns out those clamoring for the abolition of kickers have a point. By selecting a minimum priced kicker, you'd on average see a 1.68x ROI, which is actualy 0.04 higher than the average. The average value multiplier returned has no pattern as salary increases, indicating there does not appear to be an optimal price point to take a kicker.
Perhaps looking at a breakdown by opponent can give us some usable information.
| K Opponent | Cash (2x) % | Avg Value Against |
|---|---|---|
| CHI | 64% | 2.16 |
| NO | 64% | 1.95 |
| JAX | 57% | 2.02 |
| TEN | 57% | 2.15 |
| NE | 50% | 1.65 |
| TB | 50% | 1.90 |
| ATL | 43% | 1.99 |
| OAK | 43% | 2.01 |
| STL | 43% | 1.55 |
| CIN | 36% | 1.68 |
| CLE | 36% | 1.80 |
| DET | 36% | 1.30 |
| MIA | 36% | 1.52 |
| NYJ | 36% | 1.85 |
| PIT | 36% | 1.77 |
| SD | 36% | 1.60 |
| MIN | 29% | 1.61 |
| NYG | 29% | 1.70 |
| PHI | 29% | 1.43 |
| ARI | 21% | 1.56 |
| BAL | 21% | 1.58 |
| BUF | 21% | 1.60 |
| CAR | 21% | 1.60 |
| DAL | 21% | 1.30 |
| KC | 21% | 1.69 |
| WAS | 21% | 1.47 |
| DEN | 14% | 1.47 |
| GB | 14% | 1.53 |
| HOU | 14% | 1.28 |
| SEA | 14% | 1.21 |
| SF | 14% | 1.41 |
| IND | 7% | 1.26 |
While the average rate at which all kickers return 2x value is 32 percent, six teams have allowed opposing kickers to return 2x value in half of their games, and another three more at 43 percent. Because the season is nearly over and the data is about as reliable as it will get, I'd try to to target the top nine teams and avoid teams from Arizona down.
The Patriots and Saints--and to a lesser extent, the Bengals and Chargers--are of particular interest as the playoffs approach. With the pool of available kickers and teams to target cut down, you could find the best value and potentially make a great contrarian play by targeting kickers against these teams.
Editor's Note: You can get a free year of 4for4 by opening a new account and depositing at DraftKings, DraftDay or FanDuel. Details here.
Sunday-Monday Values & Top Plays
QB Drew Brees vs. ATL $9,100
Brees averages 311 passing yards per game on the season and faces a Falcons defense that has permitted eight 300-yard passing games and two more of over 290 yards. Saints-Falcons is tied for the highest over/under total of the week at 55.5, with the Saints projected by Vegas to score 30 points. Brees is projected for the most passing yards and passing TDs this week of any QB by a comfortable margin.
QB Matthew Stafford @ CHI $8,200
Stafford has stud QB upside against a Bears defense that has allowed passing TD totals of 6, 5, and 4 already this season, as well as 3 in each of their last two games. The Bears give up 286 passing yards and 2.35 passing TDs per game, ranking 31st in QB aFPA. Stafford has faced three other “green” QB aFPA matchups this season, throwing for at least 311 yards and 2 TDs in each.
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