Streaming Quarterbacks: A Retroactive Look at 2013 FPAT

Aug 06, 2014
Streaming Quarterbacks: A Retroactive Look at 2013 FPAT

I want to wage war against the gut decision.

The only way Quarterback By Waiver Wire (QBBWW) can remain viable – or even improve -- in the face of more widespread acceptance is to become less reliant on making gut calls on the week’s best streamers and embrace a more formulaic approach in exploiting the best quarterback matchups.

Much of the concern surrounding the QBBWW system is the impact league mates can have on your best-laid plans. They can block your attempt to pick up that week’s streaming hero, they can stockpile signal callers, they can embrace QBBWW and leave fewer options for you from week to week.

These legitimate concerns leave less room for error in many leagues that aren’t on the casual side of the fantasy spectrum.

We notched 17.7 fantasy points per game with QBBWW picks in 2013 – a nice little haul considering we didn’t spend a dime of draft day equity on our signal caller. I think we can keep it up, or even improve that average, with the use of fantasy points per attempt (FPAT), a measurement of efficiency with which I dabbled in 2013.

FPAT isn’t limited to measuring just how good a quarterback is on a per-attempt basis. I also use it to measure a defense’s FPAT allowed, or how many fantasy points that unit gives up every time the opposing quarterback throws a pass.

Here are last year’s stingiest defenses on a per-attempt basis. Most of these secondaries were just plain great, while others made this list in part because they were dumpster fires throughout 2013 and opponents simply grinded down the clock after securing comfortable leads.

2013 Stingiest Defenses, FPAT Allowed

Team Pass attempts against per game FPAT allowed
Seahawks 32.8 0.26
Panthers 34.9 0.31
Bengals 37.1 0.34
Dolphins 36.2 0.35
49ers 34.8 0.36
Titans 34.1 0.37
Giants 37.6 0.38
Bills 35.1 0.38
Chiefs 37.5 0.39
Steelers 35.6 0.40
Cardinals 39.1 0.40
Ravens 34.5 0.41

And here are the defenses that allowed the highest FPATs in 2013.

Again, nothing shocking here, though teams like Washington and Houston are something of a surprise on this list. The top-three defenses were prime QBBWW targets for us in 2013.

Highest FPAT Allowed, 2013

Team Pass attempts against per game FPAT allowed
Falcons 32.2 .57
Raiders 34.3 .55
Vikings 40.5 .53
Jaguars 34.4 .52
Cowboys 38.9 .52
Buccaneers 34.2 .52
Packers 33.5 .51
Texans 30.2 .50
Washington 32.1 .50
Chargers 35.3 .48
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