Week 7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LeSean McCoy is averaging 22 touches per game. He is the best offensive option on the Buffalo offense and the Bills have made sure he gets the ball. Of course, this creates weekly opportunities to put up good fantasy numbers. McCoy has been up-and-down with his yardage totals but one glaring number is 0 touchdowns in 2017.
McCoy will face Tampa Bay, who is ranked 15th in aFPA to running backs. Coming off the bye week, Shady should be well-rested for Sunday. The results could be better this season, but no reason to think McCoy isn't capable of a big game each week. Start McCoy as a low-end RB1 for Week 7 against the Bucs.
Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals
LeSean McCoy's numbers were back where we expected them after average performances in Weeks 2 and 3. He had 23 touches (20 rushing attempts) for 108 yards. Even though he is still without a touchdown in 2017, if he keeps getting 20+ touches per game, the touchdowns will come. More importantly, the formula is working in Buffalo and Shady remains the focus of the offense.
Next, McCoy will face a Bengals defense ranked 10th in aFPA to running backs. As long as he gets the touches, he will be a very good play on the road in Cincinnati. He isn't a top-tier fantasy back for Week 5, but definitely a solid RB1. Start him in all leagues and formats.
Week 4 at Atlanta Falcons
LeSean McCoy didn't run with the football very well against Denver last week which wasn't surprising. He still totaled 21 touches, including 7 catches for 48 yards. I think there is little doubt the Bills will get McCoy a minimum of 20 touches, which will always keep him relevan,t even against good defenses.
McCoy is not 100% (injured wrist), but he practiced all week long so he will play. He faces a Falcons defense ranked 28th in aFPA to running backs, so McCoy should have some success on the road.
Start McCoy in all leagues and formats for Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Denver Broncos
After a strong Week 1, LeSean McCoy fell flat in Carolina with only 9 rushing yards and 18 touches. The expectation is around 25 touches per game, but the Panthers were able to limit McCoy's effectiveness. He did stay involved in the passing game with 6 receptions.
The very good Denver defense comes to Buffalo, and McCoy should be the focal point of the Bills' offense. He is nursing a sore groin and missed practice Friday, but is expected to play. The Broncos are very good against the pass, but only rank 18th in aFPA to running backs. Expect Buffalo to use Shady to take pressure off Tyrod Taylor and the passing game
The touches should be back up as long as Buffalo maintains some ball control. McCoy ranks as a solid RB1 for Week 3, so start him in all leagues and formats.
Week 2 at Carolina Panthers
LeSean McCoy was supposed to be one of the top fantasy running backs in 2017. And it looked that way in Week 1. Shady rushed for 122 yards and had 49 yards receiving in the Bills' opener. The only downside was he didn't get in the end zone, which could be an issue down the road, but we will wait for a larger sample size.
McCoy will face a better defense in Week 2, as Carolina ranks first in aFPA to running backs after one week. This is a good Panthers defense and Buffalo will struggle on the road offensively. But because McCoy will always get around 25 touches, providing great value. He is a solid RB1 for Sunday—start him in all leagues and formats.
Week 1 vs. New York Jets
LeSean McCoy begins his third year with the Bills as one of the best fantasy running back options in the NFL. Buffalo is expected to lean heavily on Shady, which means 30 touches is possible every game, especially early in the season.
Against the Jets in 2016, McCoy had 90 yards from scrimmage in the first meeting and his playing time was limited in the season finale. The Jets defense was 14th in aFPA to running backs last season, but is expected to be much worse this season.
With the fact that the Bills are on the record saying they will ride McCoy as much as he can handle, he is a great start for Week 1 as a top-5 fantasy running back. Start him in all leagues and formats.
Fantasy Upside
LeSean McCoy is one of the NFL's most steady running backs. He has eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark in five-of-eight seasons (the only seasons he didn't run for over 1,000 yards were his rookie season and two seasons in which he wasn't healthy). McCoy also increased his involvement in the passing game last season, recording 50-plus receptions for the first time since 2013. With Mike Gillislee now off the roster, McCoy's touches and touchdown totals should increase. At 29, McCoy is in his prime.
Fantasy Downside
McCoy will never return to his 2013 career-high numbers. After Bills backs had the highest average yards per carry last season, expect there to be some regression with an offensive line that will fall back to the middle of the pack, according to Football Outsiders. Usage is always a question with running backs when a new coaching staff takes over a team, which is the case in Buffalo. It can be a positive or negative for McCoy, but that unknown factor has to be taken into account.
2017 Bottom Line
McCoy will be one of the better running back fantasy choices in 2017 drafts. He will get his touches in both the running and passing game. While McCoy isn't considered a top-tier back, he's definitely one of the best backs to target from the second tier. His overall ADP of six is about right where he belongs. He rates as the RB4 in standard leagues and is the RB3 in PPR Leagues. McCoy has at least one more impact season in him.
Week 17 at New York Jets
LeSean McCoy ran for 128 yards this past week with a touchdown. Shady has now rushed for over 100 yards in four out of his last give games. The 29 touches was a season-high for him, so even though the Bills have struggled at times, he has been a bright spot for Buffalo. McCoy is battling a sore knee, but is expected to play.
McCoy will face the Jets this week, who are 21st in aFPA to running backs. In the first meeting, McCoy put up average numbers with 90 yards from scrimmage. But with the Jets in turmoil right now, McCoy should have a monster day if he gets 25 touches. Start him as one of the best fantasy options for Week 17.
Week 16 vs Miami
LeSean McCoy exploded against the Browns last week for his best fantasy game of the season. He rushed for a season-high 153 yards and two touchdowns and he did it with only 19 carries. It was Shady's third 100+ rushing yard performance in the last four games.
McCoy faces the Dolphins for the second time this year and should yield better results than eight-carry, 11-yard performance. Miami is ranked fourth in aFPA to running backs, but even with the matchup favoring the defense, McCoy has been playing very well and the Bills have been leaning on him offensively. Start McCoy as one of the top fantasy running backs for Week 16.
Week 15 vs Cleveland
A late fourth quarter surge that included a touchdown helped LeSean McCoy avoid a bad fantasy outing last week. He only rushed for 27 yards, but he did catch six passes for 81 yards to put him over 100 yards from scrimmage. The rushing total was his lowest since Week 7.
McCoy should be used often in the bitter cold in Buffalo this Sunday. The matchup is great for him, as he faces Cleveland, who is 31st in aFPA to running backs. Expect more touches and production in Week 15 for Shady and start him as one of the top fantasy running backs this weekend.
