Week 8 vs. New England Patriots
LeSean McCoy only had two carries before leaving last week's game with a concussion. McCoy still has to clear concussion protocol but he does get an extra day with the game being played on Monday night.
The Buffalo offense is one of the worst in the NFL, but if McCoy plays, he is still expected to get 15-20 touches. Assuming he plays, he still has fantasy value. Start him as a high-end RB3 or Flex for Week 8.
Week 7 at Indianapolis Colts
LeSean McCoy has gotten more involved in the Bills offense over the last two weeks with 55 touches. That has produced 229 yards from scrimmage which is a big chunk of the Buffalo offensive production. With veteran QB Derek Anderson getting the start this Sunday, it might give the Bills more stability which will help Shady.
McCoy will face a Colts defense that is ranked 13th in aFPA to running backs. With the amount of touches he's finally getting, he's moved up the running back rankings. If he can start scoring some touchdowns (zero this season), he has the ability to be a consistent RB1. For Week, 7, we rank him a high-end RB2.
Week 6 at Houston Texans
Welcome back, Shady! LeSean McCoy had a season-high 24 carries and 26 touches for 108 yards. This is what most people were expecting before the season, but injuries and lack of use has limited McCoy.
For Week 6, Shady faces a Texans defense is ranked 15th in aFPA to running backs. The problem is the overall Buffalo offense. The rookie QB has struggled and the Bills have trouble scoring. McCoy has zero touchdowns so far this year. The touches are key, and this week he ranks a low-end RB2 against Houston.
Week 5 vs. Tennessee Titans
LeSean McCoy only had eight touches last week after missing the previous game. The Bills know they need to get their best offensive weapon the ball, especially with a rookie quarterback, so you have to think he wasn't 100 percent last week.
McCoy will face a very good Tennessee run defense ranked sixth in aFPA to running backs. Shady could face defenses each week that zero in on him so it might be tough for him to put up numbers, especially if the touches aren't there. Start McCoy on Sunday but only as an RB3 or flex. We need to see him have some success to move him up the rankings in the future.
Week 4 at Green Bay Packers
LeSean McCoy missed the big upset of Minnesota last this week, but he is telling everyone he can find that he is suiting up this Sunday. His replacement last week, Chris Ivory, had 23 touches for 126 yards, so you figure that's where Shady will be Sunday at Green Bay.
Green Bay is ranked 17th in aFPA to running backs, so no edge either way. If McCoy gets the touches he should have some fantasy impact, but we still wonder if the Bills can do it two straight weeks. Start McCoy in Week 4 as a high-end RB3 or flex play.
Week 3 at Minnesota Vikings
LeSean McCoy's numbers are low for many different reasons. He had only 13 touches last week, which was an improvement from Week 1. With a rookie quarterback under center now, you would think the Bills would find a way to get the ball in the hands of their best player more. McCoy had 68 total yards last week and 89 for the season. He has not scored a touchdown in 2018.
McCoy will face the No. 1 defense in aFPA to running backs in Week 3. Minnesota is even tougher at home, so it is unlikely McCoy will have a breakout game. He should get enough touches to be ranked as a low-end RB3 or flex play for Sunday.
Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
It was a total disaster for the Bills offense last week and that included LeSean McCoy. He ran the ball seven times for 22 yards and one reception for negative one yard. That's eight touches for a back who should be closer to 20.
McCoy will face a Chargers defense that is below-average against the run. If the Bills can get Shady the ball, he should have some success. Start McCoy on Sunday but only as a low-end RB2 for Week 2.
Week 1 at Baltimore Ravens
Lots of interesting conversations about LeSean McCoy's offseason. The legal situation has not been cleared up but it clearly impacted where Shady was taken in drafts. But here we are in Week 1 and he will suit up against the Ravens.
Baltimore's run defense was slightly below-average in 2017. We expect McCoy to get his share of touches (15-20), but the bigger problem is the confidence in Buffalo's overall offense. For that reason, Shady is a high-end RB2 for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Everyone knows what Shady McCoy is capable of and he is the No. 1 playmaker on the Bills roster. He has rushed for 1,000 yards four of the past five seasons while also catching over 100 passes the past two years. Just two years ago, he scored 14 touchdowns and is a factor all over the field. No doubt Buffalo will rely heavily on McCoy again in 2018, especially with their quarterback situation.
Fantasy Downside
The off-the-field issues could end up hurting McCoy and the Bills. Police are investigating a home invasion incident in McCoy's home. We don't know his involvement yet but it does cast a shadow on his 2018 season. McCoy is also 30 years old and running backs can decline quickly.
2018 Bottom Line
Unless McCoy's legal situation is settled before your draft, stay away. Someone will still draft him in the first couple of rounds and that is too risky. Right now, his ADP is around 25, but there many backs who are more secure picks that will give you similar results.
Wild Card Round at Jacksonville Jaguars
LeSean McCoy was banged up last week and that limited him to 13 touches and a rare bad fantasy day for Shady. His team did make the playoffs so he will get another shot to make an impact. His health is a major question and he isn't practicing this week. If he should play in Jacksonville, you have to wonder how many touches he will be able to handle.
The Jags are ranked 20th in aFPA to running backs so the matchup actually isn't bad for McCoy. But we fear the ankle injury will be overwhelming which dropped McCoy down a couple notches in the running back rankings. He ranks in the second tier for Wild Card weekend.
