Week 2 at Cardinals
Cousins is coming off a solid game where he completed 36-of-49 passes for 351 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as QB13 for the week. It was encouraging to see the 49 pass attempts because the Vikings have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL for the past couple of seasons. Cousins has some streamer appeal whenever the Vikings play as underdogs in projected shootouts as they do here against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals defense ranked 23rd in aFPA to quarterbacks last season, but this looks like an improved defense with the additions of J.J. Watt and Zaven Collins as well as the continued development of Isaiah Simmons. The Cardinals completely shut down Ryan Tannehill last week, limiting him to 6.06 yards per attempt. Having said that, it's possible that Tennessee's struggles were partly self-inflicted in dealing with a new play-caller in Todd Downing. Cousins still has some streamer appeal in a projected shootout with a 50.5-point total.
Week 1 at Cincinnati Bengals
Kirk Cousins is in a good spot against the Bengals this week. The Vikings are three-point favorites with a 25.25 implied team total. Cousins should have an opportunity to have an efficient game with QB1 upside. The Bengals finished 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks last season. They’ll be without starting cornerback Trae Waynes (hamstring) for this game, which bodes well for Cousins here.
The risk here is that the Vikings go with a run-heavy approach against the Bengals, resulting in low volume for Cousins. This is a team that passed the ball on 49% of their plays in neutral game-scripts last season, ranking 30th in the NFL. The Vikings have an improved defense with the addition of cornerback Patrick Peterson and return of pass-rusher Danielle Hunter. If the defense holds the Bengals offense in check, this adds to Cousins’ risk. Having said that, Cousins should still be able to make plays downfield against this susceptible secondary. He’s a high-end QB2 with streamer appeal here.
Fantasy Upside
Kirk Cousins completed 349-of-516 passes for 4,265 yards (8.3 Y/A) with 35 touchdowns and 13 interceptions last season. He also rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries (4.9 Y/A. Cousins finished as QB11 in fantasy points per game. He really started to tear it up down the stretch, putting up 292.22 yards per game with 23 touchdowns and three interceptions in his last nine games. The Vikings used their first-rounder on tackle Christian Darrisaw, so their offensive line should be better. Cousins is armed with strong weapons with running back Dalvin Cook, wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, as well as tight end Irv Smith Jr. There’s a chance that he can continue to play at the high level that he showed in the second half of last season and finish in the Top-10 fantasy quarterbacks. If Cook were forced to miss time, the Vikings would likely air it out more often, which could also help Cousins hit his ceiling.
Fantasy Downside
Cousins averaged 32.25 pass attempts per game last season. While it’s an increase from 2019’s average of 29.6 pass attempts per game, this offense still revolves around Dalvin Cook. Cousins will have to maintain a high efficiency in order to finish among the Top-12 quarterbacks. The downside here is that the Vikings' defense should be improved with the return of edge rusher Danielle Hunter and the addition of cornerback Patrick Peterson. Mike Zimmer is too good of a defensive coach to allow last season’s production to happen again. This would mean more favorable game scripts for a run-heavy approach, which is bad news for Cousins. Third-round rookie quarterback Kellen Mond is also knocking on the door. If Cousins should struggle and the Vikings get off to a really slow start, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see Mond see some action, which would obviously be the worst-case scenario.
Bottom Line
Cousins is currently being drafted as QB19 (152.3 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues. While he should be able to provide value at this draft cost, Cousins is still a floor pick with a narrow range of outcomes. This isn’t a quarterback who will break out and provide Top-7 fantasy value. He also doesn’t provide much on the ground, which causes fantasy players to gravitate towards more high-upside passers like Daniel Jones if they wait on a quarterback. Cousins fits it on your roster if you decide to take this approach, as his floor would help balance your roster nicely with an upside pick like Jones.
Week 17 at Detroit
Cousins finished up last strong as he completed 27-of-41 passes for 391 yards and three touchdowns against the New Orleans Saints. Cousins has been a reliable starter in fantasy after his rocky start in the first few weeks of the season, as he has frequently posted three-touchdown games since November. For the first time this season, Cousins has true upside QB1 potential this week as they take on the Detroit Lions who rank last in aFPA to QBs this season. With Dalvin Cook set to miss this game, expect plenty of throws from Cousins in this one.
Week 16 at New Orleans
Cousins had a fine game last week against the Chicago Bears, as he completed 24-of-35 passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Much like their previous matchup earlier this season, the Bears and Vikings threw the ball a ton in this unexpected shootout. Cousins played well for most of this one and nearly had this third touchdown late in the fourth quarter when he overthrew an open Justin Jefferson in the endzone (you know which soundbite I’m talking about).
Week 16 brings on the toughest matchup of the season as the New Orleans Saints are ranked first in aFPA to QBs this season. Cousins is going to see a lot of pressure from the likes Cameron Jordan and NFL sack leader Trey Hendrickson in this one, so if the Vikings get down early, he’ll be throwing the ball a lot more than usual. With fantasy titles on the line this week, only the most desperate owners should consider starting this low-end QB2.
Week 15 vs Chicago
Cousins had his first bad game in well over a month last week against Tampa Bay as he completed 24-of-37 passes for 225 yards and one touchdown. Cousin also ran for a career-high 41 yards and lost a fumble, however the real story here are the six sacks the Minnesota offensive line surrendered. Outside of Dalvin Cook, not much offensive was generated for the Vikings as Cousins was consistently under duress which accounted for a pedestrian fantasy performance.
Things don’t get much better in Week 15 as Cousins will once again take on the Chicago Bears who rank 11th in aFPA to QBs this season. Cousins had a solid game against the Bears in Week 10 throwing 292 yards along with two touchdowns and one interception, so he’s shown the ability to overcome these challenges. If the Bears front-seven can overmatch the Viking offensive line much like they were last week, Cousins is in for another rough outing. Keep him as a QB2 in this one.
Week 14 at Tampa Bay
Cousins continued his excellent play last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as he completed 28-of-43 passes for 305 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. That makes three consecutive weeks for Cousins with 300+ passing yards and three touchdowns, something that would not seem feasible for the QB of a run-first team. The Vikings’ transition from a run-heavy offense to a well-balanced offense is one of the more remarkable and underreported items this season as Cousins is able to support two WR1s in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
Week 14 brings on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who rank 21st in aFPA to WRs this season. The Buccaneers defense has been one of the league’s best all season, however, it has been starting to sputter out in the past two weeks as they have surrendered an average of 478 total yards and have given up 27 points in both games. Cousins is on fire right now and he will be looking to capitalize on a defense that is seemingly hitting their low-point. Keep Cousins as a high-end QB2 in this one.
Week 13 vs Jacksonville
Cousins had his best game of the season last week against the Carolina Panthers, as he completed 34-of-45 passes for 307 yards and three touchdowns The 45 passing attempts were a season-high for Cousins in a game where the Vikings were in comeback mode and were down Adam Thielen. Cousins has now thrown three touchdowns in consecutive games and had a sneaky productive November as he had a TD-INT ratio of 12:1 and had two 300-yard games.
Week 13 brings a soft matchup in the Jacksonville Jaguars as they rank 27th in aFPA to QBs this season. Cousins has a lot of momentum heading into this game and has a full arsenal of weapons. Look for Cousins to keep his solid play going as he’ll be a fringe QB1 this week.
Week 12 vs Carolina
Cousins had his best fantasy production game of the season last week against Dallas as he completed 22-of-30 passes for 314 yards three touchdowns and one interception. Albeit this game was against Dallas, this is the third consecutive game for Cousins with multiple scores. Even though Dalvin Cook is still getting plenty of work on the ground, Cousins is still getting plenty of opportunities to throw the ball around and his excellent receiving duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson is paying dividends.
Week 12 brings a solid matchup against Carolina who's ranked fourth in aFPA to QBs this season. Unfortunately for Cousins and the Vikings team, they will be without Thielen in this game as he has been placed on the reserved/COVID-19 list. With another run-heavy game and down his top weapon, Cousins is an easy QB2.
Week 11 vs Dallas
Cousins had a solid game last week against a tough Chicago defense as he completed 25-of-36 passes for 292 yards and threw two touchdowns and one interception. Both of his touchdowns went to his go-to-WR in Adam Thielen, making it back-to-back games Cousins has thrown multiple TDs. He has a relatively easy matchup this week against Dallas who is ranked 22nd in aFPA to QBs this season. Cousins will make a solid QB2 in this one based on the matchup.
