Week 5 vs. Chicago Bears
Kirk Cousins is currently fifth in pass attempts leaguewide, something that should be a boost to his fantasy prospects. Unfortunately, Cousins has not been particularly efficient this year. His 6.6 yards per attempt ranks 24th in the NFL and his 1,103 air yards place 13th among passers. Kevin O'Connell's new offense has shown some flashes of life over the first four weeks of the season, but Cousins is largely the same player we have always seen. He is a competent passer who struggles under pressure and against elite defenses. The good news is that he will not face an elite defense this week with the Bears visiting, who boast a mediocre defense in regard to allowing fantasy points to opposing QBs (18th in adjusted fantasy points allowed). Cousins can be played this week as a streaming option in single-QB leagues.
Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints (London)
Kirk Cousins posted a nice line in Week 3 on the back of a negative game script where the Vikings were forced into comeback mode, leading to 41 pass attempts. Cousins managed 260 yards and a pair of scores on those attempts, and did so with Justin Jefferson being held in check by the Lions. Cousins has a nice collection of weapons with Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Irv Smith Jr., but his inconsistent play makes him tough to trust as a weekly fantasy starter. In Week 4, Cousins and the Vikings travel to London to take on the Saints early Sunday morning. The Matchup pits Cousins against a New Orleans defense that has graded out as roughly average across the board this season. Cousins makes for a viable streaming candidate for fantasy players heading into Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Detroit Lions
Kirk Cousins looked great in Week 1 against Green Bay, but in classic Cousins fashion he crashed back to Earth in a big way in Week 2 by throwing three interceptions, including two in the red zone, and only countering with a single touchdown and 221 passing yards. As much as we would like for Cousins to evolve into an every-week QB1 under Kevin O'Connell, he simply lacks elite talent and consistency to be trusted in more difficult matchups. Matchup won't be an issue in Week 3 with the Vikings hosting the Lions and their Swiss cheese defense, meaning Cousins is firmly back on the streaming radar as the Vikings should not struggle to move the ball with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Irv Smith Jr. in this one. Week 2 was a tough reminder of Cousins' floor for those using him as a QB1, but he remains fully capable of taking advantage of soft matchups and makes for a solid start in Week 3.
Week 2 at Philadelphia Eagles
A successful Week 1 for Kirk Cousins involved a ton of Justin Jefferson, as the pair connected for nine catches, 182 yards, and a pair of touchdowns. Cousins threw for an additional 95 yards to other receivers to cap off an impressive 2022 debut under first-year Head Coach Kevin O'Connell. The Vikings finished a solid 11th place in Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1 and the offense generally looked more fluid, explosive, and unpredictable than it ever did under Mike Zimmer. The promising performance also came against a normally stout Packers defense, providing hope that the Vikings' offensive success was not a flash in the pan. Cousins and the Vikings will play in a hostile environment on the road in Philadelphia this week, but the Eagles are coming off a 73-point shootout with the Lions in Week 1 where the defense struggled to contain Jared Goff and Co. Cousins makes for an interesting QB1 streamer heading into Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Green Bay Packers
Kirk Cousins will start his 2022 season facing off with a tough Green Bay defense that finished last season tied for fifth in lowest yards-per-attempt allowed to opposing QBs at 6.2 YPA. The tough opening matchup coincides with the regular season debut of Kevin O'Connell's offense, something that has been the topic of much discussion in fantasy circles due to the prospect of increased passing volume. A switch to a more pass-heavy philosophy would obviously benefit Cousins from a fantasy standpoint, and the weapons are there to take advantage of additional volume. How the new-look Vikings offense operates against a tough defense will be one of the more interesting storylines in Week 1, but the difficult matchup renders Cousins a QB2 to start off the season.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Kirk Cousins enters a new era of his NFL career in 2022 with Kevin O'Connell installed as Head Coach in Minnesota, replacing Mike Zimmer's "old-school ball coach" style and philosophies. As for offensive philosophy and resulting statistical production, the coaching change looks like an upgrade for Cousins. Minnesota finished a mediocre 18th in the league in pass rate last season at 58.5% with Zimmer running the show. O'Connell's Super Bowl-winning offense in Los Angeles only finished slightly better (14th in the league), but the Rams defense is far better than Minnesota's and often provided O'Connell with a lead to protect against inferior opponents. The situation will be different for the Vikings this season, and O'Connell's more aggressive approach should yield fantasy benefits for Cousins when contrasted against his role in Zimmer's conservative schemes. Cousins will also benefit from most of his favorite targets returning. Justin Jefferson is already one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Dalvin Cook is still in the picture, and Adam Thielen has thus far remained productive as he ages. Cousins looks primed to match his production in previous seasons, and potentially exceed it, which would place him firmly in the QB2 range for fantasy purposes and a streaming candidate in single-QB leagues in favorable matchups.
2022 Fantasy Downside
While there are reasons to be excited about Cousins for fantasy this year, he has historically struggled to maintain consistent QB1 status due to his own limitations as a player. Cousins especially struggled to deal with pressure last season behind Minnesota's below-average offensive line. Cousins posted a pressured completion percentage of 45.5%, good for 17th in the NFL, alongside a 29th-place finish in accuracy rating when under pressure. While the Vikings offensive line looks like it has slightly improved since last year, it still projects in the bottom half of the league and Cousins will have to handle pressure better in 2022 to improve his fantasy production.
2022 Bottom Line
Cousins looks like he will occupy a familiar place in the fantasy landscape in 2022. He will be useful in favorable matchups as a streaming QB1, but most weeks he will slot in as a middling QB2. Things could change if O'Connell comes out with an aerial attack in Week 1 and Cousins takes advantage, but expecting Cousins to take some sort of massive step forward under a new Head Coach will likely lead to disappointment.
Week 17 at Packers
Kirk Cousins is in a tough spot this week against the Packers. While Green Bay ranks 23rd in Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points per Game allowed to quarterbacks, the weather should be a factor here. It's expected to be really cold in this game, which could limit the effectiveness of the passing game. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer this week.
Update: Cousins is out this week on the reserve/COVID-19 list
Week 16 vs. Rams
Kirk Cousins has hit a rough patch recently, finishing as QB21 and QB23 in his last two games, but this looks like a good bounce-back spot. The Vikings will likely have to air it out to keep pace with this high-octane Rams offense. This has the potential to turn into a shootout and we've seen Cousins show a nice ceiling this year with four Top-5 finishes.
The Rams rank 11th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but this is a bet on an uptick in volume in a potential shootout. Cousins looks like a streamer with upside in this spot, especially if the Vikings fall behind or have challenges running against this tough rush defense.
Week 15 at Bears
Kirk Cousins is coming off a poor fantasy performance against the Steelers, finishing as QB21 on the week due to Minnesota's success in the running game. Cousins wasn't forced to air it out against the Steelers. There's a good chance that he'll have to throw more against the Bears, as they have a better run defense.
Chicago ranks 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game. so this projects as a good matchup. However, the game has a 44-point total, so it doesn't look like the most favorable of game environments. This means that we should temper our expectations for Cousins, who looks to be more of a high-end QB2 in this game.
Week 14 vs Steelers
Kirk Cousins is currently QB11 in fantasy points per game. He's averaging 279.4 passing yards per game with 25 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The Vikings have one of the most efficient passing offenses in the NFL, ranking 3rd in Football Outsiders' Pass DVOA metric. Cousins has been a fantasy steal this season.
He goes up against a Steelers defense that ranks 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, making this is an exploitable matchup. However, the Vikings have a 23.5-point implied total, so this game does not project as a shootout, likely due to the short week. Cousins looks like a decent streamer in this spot.
