Week 7 – Alex Smith at San Diego Chargers
Before Kansas City was off in week six, Alex Smith was unable to lead his current team to a victory over his former team, the San Francisco 49ers. Smith threw for just 158 yards and one touchdown in his return to the Bay Area. Although the Chiefs prefer to anchor their offense around running backs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, they may have to turn Smith loose to keep pace with Philip Rivers and company. With San Diego having been picked apart by Oakland’s Derek Carr on Sunday, that might not be a bad thing. Smith is an acceptable starter in two-quarterback leagues.
Week 5 – Alex Smith at San Francisco 49ers
Way back in 2005, San Francisco made Alex Smith the first overall pick in the draft, well ahead of some guy named Rodgers who is currently starting in Green Bay. After several unsatisfying seasons, Smith’s career turned around in 2011 when Jim Harbaugh took over as San Francisco’s head coach. The Harbaugh/Smith partnership led to a trip to the NFC Championship game and bigger things were expected in 2012, but Smith lost his job to Colin Kaepernick after suffering a concussion. That led to his trade to Kansas City.
Undoubtedly, this will be an emotional week for Smith and he is going to be very motivated to beat the team that gave up on him. He heads back to the Bay Area with a lot of momentum, having thrown for 248 yards and three touchdowns in week four. While Smith will show plenty of grit, the 49ers seem to have found their groove and will make life tough for their former friend. Alex will again be parked in the mid-range QB2 lot.
Week 4 – Alex Smith vs. New England Patriots
Fantasy owners finally have a reason to give some praise to Alex Smith. After throwing for one touchdown during the first two games of the season, Smith tossed three as Kansas City thumped Miami 34-15. Alex also threw for 186 yards.
Generally regarded as a safe, boring QB2, Smith is in the middle of our rankings once again this week, in large part because of players such as Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, and Andy Dalton are off. In most weeks, he would probably be lower, as New England is number one in the NFL in pass defense. It would be in your best interests to avoid Alex if possible and keep expectations low if you have to start him.
Week 3 – Alex Smith at Miami Dolphins
After throwing for 202 yards in Kansas City’s season opener, Alex Smith upped his yardage to 255 in week two. However, that statistical increase does not hide the fact that Smith has thrown only one touchdown pass so far in 2014. It is getting harder to classify Smith as anything more than a low-level QB2. While Miami’s pass defense is not stifling, Smith needs to be on the bench outside of leagues that require two starting quarterbacks.
Week 2 – Alex Smith at Denver Broncos
The Chiefs recently gave Alex Smith a big money contract, but in week one Smith did not perform like a big money quarterback. Instead, he provided a flashback to his darker days in San Francisco by throwing three interceptions. He finished with 202 passing yards, one touchdown pass, and 36 rushing yards.
In fairness to Alex, he did not have his best receiver, Dwayne Bowe. And the Kansas City coaches have pretty much admitted they did not put their players in a good position to succeed. With the Chiefs reeling on defense in the wake of season-ending injuries to linebacker Derrick Johnson and lineman Mike DeVito, they could be forced into a high-scoring affair, keeping Smith perched as a satisfactory starter in two-quarterback leagues.
Week 1 – Alex Smith vs. Tennessee Titans
In the fifth game of the 2013 season, Alex Smith led Kansas City to a 26-17 victory over the Titans in Nashville. Smith did not have a good day statistically, throwing for 245 yards, with one interception and zero touchdowns.
Of course, a lot has changed since then. Smith got hot down the stretch and posted some big games. And the Titans have changed on defense, going from a 4-3 to 3-4 and losing top cornerback Alterraun Verner in free agency to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. On paper, Smith could be catching the retooling Titans at the right time, especially with tight end Travis Kelce on the rise, but Kansas City will be missing Dwayne Bowe on Sunday because of a suspension. Smith is okay to start in two-quarterback leagues and that’s it.
In his first season in Kansas City, Alex Smith brought a winning tempo to a Chiefs team badly in need of a different approach. Smith helped lead the surprising Chiefs to an 11-5 record and a wild card birth. However, as he was in San Francisco, Smith was mostly a conservative field general who was responsible for more NFL victories than fantasy ones. Unless, of course you managed to catch Smith during some of his big games, the majority of which came later in the season when Smith got more comfortable with the offense after a slow start. Will the late season momentum result in Smith moving up to QB1 territory?
Fantasy Upside
On November 24, Smith threw for 294 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-38 loss to San Diego. When the Chiefs routed the Raiders in week 15, Smith tossed five touchdown passes and racked up 287 passing yards. And in the playoffs against Indianapolis, Alex amassed 378 passing yards and four touchdowns as the Chiefs lost 45-44 thanks to a stunning Colts comeback. Those performances give you an idea of what Smith is capable of when everything clicks. Smith has an unsettled contract situation and will be heavily motivated to have a big year. While Smith will not be confused with Cam Newton, he is a decent runner (he had 57 yards in the playoff game) and averaged 28.7 yards per game in 2013, the best mark of his career.
Fantasy Downside
Outside of young tight end Travis Kelce potentially making an impact, Smith’s supporting cast did not get any better. Dwayne Bowe is suspended for the first game of the season and there is speculation regarding his future in Kansas City. Departed Dexter McCluster has always been overrated, but is rookie De’Anthony Thomas going to be any better in the slot? Kansas City’s offensive line has been shuffled, with left tackle Brandon Albert now in Miami. Compounding those changes is the fact the slate of opponents is much tougher for Kansas City. Smith will have to square off with his old friends from San Francisco, the defending champions from Seattle, St. Louis, Arizona, New England, plus three division rivals who have all improved on defense. Even though Smith showed he could carry the offense at times, there is no need for that with Jamaal Charles in the backfield.
Bottom Line
Smith will have his moments, but his supporting cast is not strong enough for him to migrate out of QB2 territory. He has the potential to be one of the safer fantasy backups, but does not possess a surplus of upside.
