Fantasy Upside
Alex Smith is a guy who is going to give you reliable production. His numbers may not always be high, but very rarely will he give you a game you weren’t expecting. One of his best traits is his ability to not turn the ball over. He hasn’t thrown more than seven interceptions in a season since 2010.
He has three reliable receiving options in Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles, and the rest of his receiving corps is improving. The team added Rod Streater in the offseason, who had some promising moments in 2013 before being buried on the depth chart.
A nice bonus from Smith is his rushing ability. The Chiefs QB is no Russell Wilson or Cam Newton, but he had a solid 498 rushing yards in 2015.
Fantasy Downside
Smith rarely ever has a big game. In 2015 he had eight games under 200 yards passing and four of those games he had one touchdown or less. He only had one game above 300 yards last season, and his yards per game was second-worst among quarterbacks with at least 400 attempts on the season.
Part of the reason Smith’s numbers are so low is because the team just doesn’t throw the ball enough. He had eight games with 25 pass attempts or less, and it’s difficult to get anything going with so few passes.
Bottom Line
Smith is consistent, but he’s consistently mediocre. He’s a guy that will probably be a part of many teams as they add and drop him from the waiver wire as a one-week streaming option. He’s not strong enough to be an every-week starter, but if you need him a few spot starts, then you’ll at least get some production.
Week 19 at New England
Often called a game manager, Alex Smith proved again that is not always a bad thing in Kansas City’s 30-0 demolition of Houston during the opening weekend of the playoffs. Smith’s safe play, outside of one interception, was a stark contrast to Houston’s Brian Hoyer, who was committing turnovers at a frantic pace. Nevertheless, Smith’s numbers would have been much better had he not overthrown a wide-open Albert Wilson on a sure touchdown pass. Alex finished with 190 passing yards and one touchdown pass, while adding 27 yards on the ground.
In a 2014 Monday night game against the Patriots, Smith threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns against a better secondary than New England has now. That was also before the Chiefs signed Jeremy Maclin. Factoring in those considerations, you would think Alex might have a nice day in the Northeast. But the Patriots have way more playoff seasoning than the Chiefs and Maclin was injured in the victory over Houston. If Maclin misses the game or is merely a decoy, Smith’s chances of success drop considerably. Given that, and the fact that so many superstar quarterbacks are going to be in action this weekend, Smith is rightfully low in the rankings.
Week 18 at Houston
If the NFL Network was going to launch a football-themed version of the game show Hollywood Squares, Alex Smith would never be the center square. Since coming to Kansas City, Smith has been conservative and his fantasy stock has never been particularly high. Most weeks, though, he is far from a disaster, and that was the case last Sunday against Oakland. Smith threw for 156 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for 61 yards as the Chiefs enjoyed their tenth victory in a row.
Alex was successful earlier in the year against Houston, throwing for 243 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to Travis Kelce. And Smith has had some huge playoff games in the past. Two years ago, when the Chiefs lost a 45-44 shootout to Indianapolis, Smith threw for 378 yards and four touchdowns. And back in 2011 when Smith was a member of the San Francisco 49ers, he led the 49ers to a thrilling 36-32 triumph over New Orleans. Alex was absolutely brilliant in that one, throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns while also running for a 28-yard score. So it is certainly possible Smith mixes up another concoction of playoff magic. However, with Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and red-hot Kirk Cousins also playing this weekend, Alex loses plenty of luster, especially since the Houston defense closed on a tear and allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game during the regular season. Unless you are in a format where you have to play two quarterbacks, Smith needs to be viewed strictly as a backup.
Week 17 vs Oakland
As the Chiefs captured a playoff spot in Week 16 by beating a surprisingly pesky Cleveland squad, Alex Smith was his usual steady self. Smith threw for just 125 yards, but salvaged his fantasy numbers by tossing two touchdown passes and rushing for 54 yards.
Since coming to Kansas City from San Francisco, Smith has enjoyed some success against Oakland. Back in Week 15 of the 2013 season, Alex burned the Silver and Black for five touchdown passes. While the Raiders are a much better team now, Smith threw a pair of touchdowns against them in Week 13. Smith often disappoints when he is hyped as a QB1, but remains a very safe bet in 2QB leagues and can be plugged in as an emergency QB1 this weekend if you need one.
Week 16 vs Cleveland
Over the past two weeks, Alex Smith earned some notoriety as a streaming candidate thanks to favorable matchups with San Diego and Baltimore. Unfortunately, various factors such as weather and game flow have prevented Smith from delivering decent numbers. Against Baltimore last Sunday, Kansas City’s defense scored two touchdowns and Charcandrick West had a long touchdown run, leaving Smith with scraps. Alex threw for 171 yards and one score.
Maybe the third time will be the charm for Smith against a Cleveland pass defense that has allowed 29 touchdowns. The Browns were relatively competitive in Seattle last Sunday and might be able to stick around for a while at Arrowhead. If that happens, Smith may finally pay dividends as a spot starter. If not, he will still be a safe option in 2QB leagues.
Week 15 at Baltimore
Expected to have streaming value in Week 14 thanks to a matchup with San Diego’s downtrodden defense, inclement weather in Kansas City held Alex Smith back. Smith threw for just 191 yards and a touchdown, although he saved his stats somewhat by rushing for 40 yards.
The weather should be better in Baltimore and for those once again looking to stream, Smith’s matchup is highly favorable. The Ravens have allowed 27 touchdown passes and yield 248.3 yards per game. Smith is almost always more steady than sensational, but if you are trying to find a QB1 for your playoff game or a daily league, he could give you what you need.
Week 14 vs San Diego
If you were to judge Alex Smith’s Week 13 performance by passing yardage, owners would have been unhappy, as Smith threw for just 162 yards in a 34-20 triumph over Oakland. However, if you were grading Smith on touchdowns, the outlook gets much brighter, as he ran for one score and threw for two others.
Smith threw for 253 yards in an earlier victory over San Diego, but failed to throw a touchdown pass as Kansas City’s ground game and defense dominated the Chargers. Provided San Diego can keep things more competitive, Smith probably will not be shut out this time around. In fact, if you are looking for a streamer, Smith is worth a shot. Otherwise, he will again be a sure bet in 2-QB leagues.
Week 13 at Oakland
With Buffalo jumping out to a lead against Kansas City in Week 12, Alex Smith played more aggressively than usual and produced one of his best stat lines of the season. The veteran out of Utah threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns. He also gained 35 yards on the ground.
There are always risks with Smith and a fairly low ceiling, but with Oakland possessing a bottom five pass defense, Smith has value as a potential QB1 streamer and inexpensive daily league option. He also remains a stable starter in 2QB leagues.
Week 12 vs Buffalo
The ultimate superstar among NFL game managers, Alex Smith failed to throw a touchdown pass in Week 11 despite the fact Kansas City slaughtered San Diego 33-3. He managed 253 yards through the air and 33 yards on the ground. Only twice this year has Smith thrown for two or more touchdowns in a game.
Buffalo’s head coach Rex Ryan often talks a good game, but if you look at the numbers, the Bills do not have a strong pass defense. Buffalo yields over 250 yards per game and opponents have scored 18 touchdowns through the air against the Bills. Nonetheless, Smith’s upside is perpetually low and there are better streamers out there. He is only a realistic option in 2-QB leagues.
Week 11 at Detroit
Fantasy owners were hardly expecting greatness from Alex Smith in a Week 10 tilt with Denver, but Smith was in the midst of an awful game early in the fourth quarter. He failed to throw a touchdown pass and had little yardage before Charcandrick West took a short pass 80 yards for a touchdown, enabling Smith to finish with 204 yards and one score.
While Smith never has much in the way of upside, he has the potential to exceed those numbers against a San Diego squad that should not put up as much resistance as the Broncos. The Chargers possess a middle-of-the-pack pass defense and have surrendered 16 touchdown passes. If you are looking for a relatively safe streamer as opposed to a high-risk choice, Smith is worthy of consideration. Owners in 2-QB leagues should view Smith as a decent starter.
