Week 7 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Washington and Dallas is a game that's expected to be low scoring, as it is the second-lowest total on the Week 7 slate. Alex Smith hasn't thrown for 300 yards this season or three touchdowns. Therefore, he has not reached 20 fantasy points in any game this year. He's a QB2 for the rest of the season with little QB1 upside. This is a team that's relying on defense and a balanced offense. Look elsewhere for a QB in Week 7, as the pace of these offenses will be comparable to a snail.
Week 6 vs. Carolina Panther
It's been a tough month for the Alex Smith truthers, as he has not reached 17 fantasy points in three consecutive games. The aggressive down-field-throwing Smith we saw last year is gone, replaced by the ultra conservative Smith we saw during most of his time in KC. With only four touchdowns in four games and coming off a poor performance against a New Orleans defense that has been ravaged by the pass most of this season, Smith is not a reliable Week 6 option in 1QB leagues. Washington has a below average implied team total on a short week.
Week 5 at New Orleans Saints
Washington comes off its early bye week and heads to New Orleans for a game that's tied for the second-highest over/under of Week 5's Sunday and Monday slate. The Saints rank just 31st in aFPA to QBs. Smith is averaging 16.5 FP per game, which would be low-end QB1 numbers most years, but not in 2018. Even with a much higher projection than that this week, he still is only a QB2 in Week 5. That's the state of fantasy QBs in 2018. Offenses are scoring a ton, and there are more options than ever to start at the position.
Week 3 vs. Green Bay Packers
Washington really put up a stinker against the Colts at home last week after an impressive start against the inept Cardinals on the road in Week 1. The Packers allowed 425 yards and four touchdowns to Kirk Cousins last week, but Smith doesn't have the kind of weapons Cousins has. Green Bay allowed only 14 points to Mitch Trubisky in Week 1. Washington has a below-average implied team total of 21.25 this week. There are likely better streaming options for you in Week 3 than Smith, who ranks 28th in average depth of target this season. The old Alex Smith is back.
Week 2 vs. Indianapolis Colts
In Las Vegas this week, only the Steelers, Saints and Rams have a higher implied team total than the Redskins, illustrating confidence in this offense against a poor Colts defense. Indy gave up close to 250 yards and two touchdowns last week to Andy Dalton, and Alex Smith was very efficient in Arizona, en route to 19+ fantasy points. The Colts were just 20th last year in aFPA to QBs, which makes Smith a top-10 QB for Week 2 with upside from there.
Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals
Alex Smith was a top-five fantasy quarterback for the season last year in Kansas City. Given Jay Gruden's track record with Kirk Cousins, it's possible Alex Smith sees more passing volume this season. However, his weapons are not as dynamic in Washington. In Week 1, though, the total in Vegas for this game is the sixth lowest on the slate. It will require Smith to be efficient against a Cardinals defense that was only 22nd in aFPA versus QBs last season. We see Smith as a high-end QB2 in his Washington debut.
Fantasy Upside
As one of our writers put it this offseason, Alex Smith in Washington has the potential to be The Good Place. Smith was more aggressive in Kansas City last season, leading to a QB4 finish and he now finds himself in a Jay Gruden offense that produced three consecutive top-10 fantasy QB finishes.
Fantasy Downside
Smith's weapons are nowhere near as good as Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt were in Kansas City. And before last season, Smith had never thrown for 4,000 yards or 25 touchdowns. Some negative regression feels like it might be coming.
2018 Bottom Line
Smith has a soft schedule to begin 2018 for those looking for a cheap QB option late in drafts or looking to stream the position. His ADP is far later than our projected QB10 this season, despite Smith being projected to average below a point per week less than that QB10.
Wild Card Round vs. Tennessee Titans
Alex Smith had the best season of his career in 2017, throwing for a career-high in yards (4,042) and touchdowns (26), and a career-low in interceptions (5, while playing a full season). In short, the former game manager turned into a solid fantasy quarterback and finished with the fourth-most points among QBs this season.
In the playoffs, he gets a great first matchup against the Titans, who have struggled against the pass all season. Tennessee allowed over 300 yards passing in three of its last five games.
So not only is Smith a strong option, but he also gets a favorable opponent this week. He should be viewed as a top choice at QB this week.
Week 16 vs. Miami Dolphins
Alex Smith had a solid outing last week, completing 23-of-30 passes for 231 yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He's not even finished with the season yet, and Smith has already surpassed his career-highs in passing yards (3,738) and passing touchdowns (25). He's even had his third-best rushing season (342 yards) and is on pace for a career-high in passer rating (105.4).
All of that is to say Smith has been a surprisingly strong fantasy QB this season after years of mediocrity. He went from a bye-week filler to a QB1, which is what he should be viewed as this week in a favorable matchup against Miami. The Dolphins are allowing the 10th-highest QB rating to opposing passers (94.1) this season, which means Smith should have no trouble passing against them.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Alex Smith didn't have a great outing last week, finishing with 0 touchdowns and 1 interception on 268 yards passing. His struggles could continue this week in a tough matchup against the Chargers. He had a season-low 155 yards in his last game against Los Angeles, although he did have two scores in that game.
Still, considering Smith's recent struggles and the tough matchup, his stock definitely takes a hit this week. He's on the outside of QB1 territory this week.
