2012 Fantasy Football: Identifying Impact Rookies
The fantasy community has had a chance to digest the draft and projected depth charts are changing by the minute. When trying to predict production, I generally lean on a simple equation:
Opportunity + Talent + Durability = Production
In the realm of fantasy football, opportunity is just as important as (if not more important than) talent, though talent does tend to create some opportunity. A good running back isn't going to post very good numbers if he is buried on the depth chart. Conversely, a mediocre back could be a serviceable fantasy starter if he's given 20 touches per game.
While recapping the draft, five players immediately jumped out as potential impact rookies:
1. Browns RB Trent Richardson
In this year's draft class, Richardson appears to be the only "no-brainer" fantasy pick. He is slated to become the workhorse back for the Browns, and even though he's joining a suspect offense, there simply aren't that many workhorse RBs to go around. In terms of touches, 18-20 per game seems reasonable given Richardson ability in the passing game. His ADP will probably settle in the 2nd or 3rd round, perhaps earlier depending on how the other RBs fare this summer. He's a RB2 with upside; it wouldn't be surprising if he finished in the top 10 given his likely workload. Montario Hardesty may be on the roster bubble, which would leave Brandon Jackson and Chris Ogbonnaya as the main backups to Richardson.
2. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III
It will be interesting to see how RG3's final numbers compare to Andrew Luck's. From a pure fantasy standpoint, Griffin has a good chance to outscore Luck due to his ability to run the ball. RG3 should not be confused with last year's ROY Cam Newton. Griffin's wheels are better but he's not nearly the force around the goal line that Newton is, and it was that ability that made the Carolina QB the top impact rookie in 2011. Griffin has been going a bit earlier in early fantasy drafts, so his price looks like it will be higher.
3. Colts QB Andrew Luck
If Luck's talent lives up to the hype, then he could certainly be a fringe QB1 or better by the end of 2012. The issue is that we won't know if he's for real until he actually plays, so there's more risk than there is with an established starter like Jay Cutler or Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Colts were determined to surround their new franchise QB with talent, drafting TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, RB Vick Ballard and WRs T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill. They'll join Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Donald Brown and Delone Carter to form a (largely unproven) offensive arsenal with considerable upside. Look for Luck's ADP to fall in the QB2 range.
4. Buccaneers RB Doug Martin
GM Mark Dominik didn't trade up to draft Doug Martin so that he could serve as LeGarrette Blount's backup. Blount's lackluster play and poor ball security in 2011 makes him one of the most vulnerable starters in the league. Meanwhile, scouts say that Martin is capable of being a three-down back, so he'll get every opportunity to usurp Blount and get true RB1 touches. Blount is a fairly big fantasy name, so barring big news out of Tampa's training camp, Martin's stock may be depressed well into the summer. If he wins the starting job, look for him to go in the 4th or 5th round, a la Mark Ingram in 2011.
5. Colts TE Coby Fleener
Normally rookie TEs take a while to make a splash, but recently there have been a few first year players that have posted solid fantasy numbers as teams use the position more as a receiver than as a blocker. Fleener has a chance to hold TE1 value by year's end, thanks to his reunion with his college quarterback (Andrew Luck) and the fact that he landed on a team with a big need at TE. The Colts also drafted Dwayne Allen, so fantasy owners should pay attention to how each player picks up the Colts' offense. Fleener was the consensus best receiving TE in the draft, so he should see plenty of snaps as Luck's security blanket. There is a lot of depth at TE this year, so Fleener can be had in the later (double digit) rounds.
Other players will emerge as camp battles begin. Let's take a look at each skill position and break down a few other names.
The two names that really stick out are Brandon Weeden of the Browns and Ryan Tannehill of the Dolphins. Neither player looks primed for a great fantasy season, but other than Luck and RG3, they are the two rookies most likely to find themselves starting in 2012. He'll have to beat out Colt McCoy, but Weeden seems to have the faith of the Cleveland brass. In Miami, Tannehill has to deal with incumbent starter Matt Moore and the newly signed David Garrard. Neither receiving corps is particularly good, so don't expect much from either player in 2012.
The first thing I look for when trying to get a handle on a young player's potential workload is the vulnerability of the starter. The aforementioned LeGarrette Blount is quite vulnerable, and that's part of what makes Doug Martin so attractive.
Running down the list of early-round draftees, the next name that jumps out is Ronnie Hillman, who is expected to get some work as Willis McGahee's backup. Broncos VP John Elway calls him a "great change of pace to what we have," so it doesn't seem like he views Hillman as McGahee's replacement in 2012. McGahee is on the wrong side of 30, so it's not a stretch to see Hillman as the team's RB1 in a year or two, though he is on the small side and durability was a concern in college. There is also the matter of Knowshon Moreno, who is still on the roster but may be traded at some point.
The Giants drafted David Wilson in the first round so at worst he projects to be Ahmad Bradshaw's backup. Bradshaw is not the most durable player, so it's not a stretch to envision Wilson getting a few starts in 2012. To a lesser degree, the same goes for the Rams' second round pick Isaiah Pead, who will spell Steven Jackson.
Other draftees include:
49ers: LaMichael James vying for snaps behind Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs and Kendall Hunter
Ravens: Bernard Pierce backing up Ray Rice
Seahawks: Robert Turbin backing up Marshawn Lynch
Steelers: Chris Rainey competing for carries behind Isaac Redman
Dolphins: Lamar Miller challenging Daniel Thomas for work behind Reggie Bush
Colts: Vick Ballard joining Donald Brown and Delone Carter in unsettled backfield
Unlike 2011, when A.J. Green and Julio Jones landed in very promising situations, there aren't any WRs that jump out as attractive mid-round fantasy picks in 2012.
Below is a table with all of this year's draftees along with their projected roles for their respective teams in 2012.
|Player||College||Team||Pick (Round)||Projected Role||Competition/Notes|
|Justin Blackmon||Oklahoma State||Jaguars||5 (1)||WR1||value depends on development of Blaine Gabbert|
|Michael Floyd||Notre Dame||Cardinals||13 (1)||WR2-WR4||Andre Roberts, Early Doucet|
|Kendall Wright||Baylor||Titans||20 (1)||WR3-WR4||Damian Williams, Lavelle Hawkins|
|A.J. Jenkins||Illinois||49ers||30 (1)||WR3-WR4||Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, Kyle Williams|
|Brian Quick||Appalachian State||Rams||33 (2)||WR1-WR3||Danario Alexander, Steve Smith, Chris Givens, etc.|
|Stephen Hill||Georgia Tech||Jets||43 (2)||WR2-WR3||Jeremy Kerley, Chaz Schilens|
|Alshon Jeffery||South Carolina||Bears||45 (2)||WR2-WR3||Earl Bennett, Devin Hester|
|Ryan Broyles||Oklahoma||Lions||54 (2)||WR4-WR5||likely to play behind Nate Burleson & Titus Young|
|Rueben Randle||LSU||Giants||63 (2)||WR3||Domenik Hixon, Ramses Barden|
|DeVier Posey||Ohio State||Texans||68 (3)||WR2-WR3||Kevin Walter, Keshawn Martin|
|T.J. Graham||North Carolina State||Bills||69 (3)||WR2-WR4||Donald Jones, David Nelson|
|Mohamed Sanu||Rutgers||Bengals||83 (3)||WR2-WR4||Marvin Jones, Jordan Shipley|
|T.Y. Hilton||Florida International||Colts||92 (3)||WR3-WR5||Donnie Avery, Austin Collie, Lavon Brazill|
|Chris Givens||Wake Forest||Rams||96 (4)||WR2-WR4||Brian Quick, Steve Smith, Danario Alexander, etc.|
|Travis Benjamin||Miami (FL)||Browns||100 (4)||WR2-WR4||Mohamed Massaquoi, Josh Cribbs, Jordan Norwood|
|Joe Adams||Arkansas||Panthers||104 (4)||WR3-WR4||Brandon LaFell, David Gettis|
|Devon Wylie||Fresno State||Chiefs||107 (4)||WR3-WR5||Jonathan Baldwin, Junior Hemmingway, Terrance Copper|
|Jarius Wright||Arkansas||Vikings||118 (4)||WR2-WR4||Jerome Simpson, Michael Jenkins, Greg Childs|
|Keshawn Martin||Michigan State||Texans||121 (4)||WR3-WR4||Kevin Walter, DeVier Posey|
|Nick Toon||Wisconsin||Saints||122 (4)||WR3-WR4||Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Adrian Arrington|
|Greg Childs||Arkansas||Vikings||134 (4)||WR3-WR5||Jerome Simpson, Michael Jenkins, Jarius Wright|
|Danny Coale||Virginia Tech||Cowboys||152 (5)||WR3-WR4||Kevin Ogletree, Dwayne Harris|
|Marvin Jones||California||Bengals||166 (5)||WR2-WR4||Mohamed Sanu, Jordan Shipley|
|Juron Criner||Arizona||Raiders||168 (5)||WR4-WR6||Louis Murphy, Jacboy Ford, Eddie McGee, Duke Calhoun|
|B.J. Cunningham||Michigan State||Dolphins||183 (6)||WR3-WR5||Legedu Naanee, Clyde Gates, Rishard Matthews|
|Marvin McNutt||Iowa||Eagles||194 (6)||WR4-WR6||Riley Cooper, Jason Avant|
|Tommy Streeter||Miami (FL)||Ravens||198 (6)||WR3-WR5||Tandon Doss, David Reed|
|LaVon Brazill||Ohio||Colts||206 (6)||WR4-WR6||Donnie Avery, Austin Collie, T.Y. Hilton|
|Rishard Matthews||Nevada||Dolphins||227 (7)||WR4-WR6||Legedu Naanee, Clyde Gates, B.J. Cunningham|
|Jeremy Ebert||Northwestern||Patriots||235 (7)||WR5-WR6||Julian Edelman, Anthony Gonzalez|
|Junior Hemingway||Michigan||Chiefs||238 (7)||WR4-WR6||Jonathan Baldwin, Terrance Copper, Devon Wylie|
|Jordan White||Western Michigan||Jets||244 (7)||WR4-WR6||Chaz Schilens, Jeremy Kerley, Patrick Turner, Stephen Hill|
At this point, there are few solid rookie WR options, though Brian Quick (and Chris Givens), Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd, DeVier Posey, T.J. Graham, Mohamed Sanu (and Marvin Jones), Jarius Wright (and Greg Childs) all have a realistic chance to start for offenses that feature decent to good QB play.
Justin Blackmon was the top WR pick, but his value is heavily dependent on the play of QB Blaine Gabbert. In terms of fantasy value, he landed in one of the worst possible spots.
I wouldn't expect much from any rookie TE not named Coby Fleener, but there are a few guys who could surprise. Dwayne Allen was the second TE taken, also by the Colts, and it will be interesting to see how he progresses alongside Fleener. Cincinnati's Orson Charles could put a dent in Jermaine Gresham's value, while Miami's Michael Egnew will have an opportunity to usurp Anthony Fasano in the next year or two.
Another player I'm watching closely this summer is Adrien Robinson. Eli Manning loves to throw to his tight end and at this point both Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum are sidelined as they recover from knee injuries. Robinson ran a sub 4.6 40-yard dash and has good size and hands. Martellus Bennett is penciled in to start, but this is a camp battle to monitor.
Filed Under: 2012, Preseason