Week 1 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals
There's nothing quite like Week 1 of the NFL season. The anticipation leading up to the season's opening weekend is unlike anything in sports.
Week 1 handicapping is also unlike any other week of the season. These game lines have been live and bet extensively since mid-April, which leads to a more-than-usual amount of line movement. Week 1 is often the most challenging week to handicap because we rely less on actual matchup data and more on our priors. We can make speculative decisions based on offseason moves, coaching changes, and preseason narratives, but we don't really know what to expect until we see each team in action.
I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I think is the most significant inefficiency in the market: Individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.
Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.
The NFL news cycle and player-related updates are relentless this time of year. All of our plays are released through our subscriber Discord. Go to #Role-Assign and turn on "Staff NFL Plays" to receive push notifications whenever a play is released by the 4for4 team. Beyond picks, our betting subscription includes tools that can't be found anywhere else. You can find out more details about everything a betting subscription comes with here.
Let's dig into Week 1's totals.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
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