DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 7

Oct 17, 2018

The Week 7 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Blake Bortles ($6,500 FD/$5,200 DK)

Coming off a single-digit fantasy point week will always suppress ownership on a player. If we look a bit deeper we can figure out why Bortles may have struggled. The first factor that pops off the page is plays run. In both of his terrible performances this year, the Jaguars’ offense ran less than 60 plays. This came against two of the slower paced teams in the league in the Titans and the Cowboys. The matchup against the Texans this week will pit the fourth-quickest team in the league against the fifth-quickest team in the league in terms of seconds per play. Not only are the Texans a fast-paced team, but they are also the 25th ranked team in aFPA to quarterbacks. Bortles is primed for a bounce-back game in an up-tempo home contest. Even the Jaguars’ defense has been struggling a bit which could require Bortles to remain slinging throughout the contest.

At a projected median ownership of three percent on both sites, 4for4’s GPP leverage score for Bortles suggest owning him at 1.67 times his projection on DraftKings and 2.00 times his projection on FanDuel. This indicates an implied ownership range of about five to eight percent. With quarterback ownership being generally flat, eight percent should be plenty to be overweight.