Week 5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Mark Ingram scored a touchdown last week, but he had just eight carries and one reception for a total of 37 yards. Ingram is averaging just 9.25 total touches per game this season as part of a three-headed backfield. He also continues to contend with quarterback Lamar Jackson for ground production.
The Bengals are a nice matchup for Ingram, as they rank 21st in aFPA to opposing running backs. However, his lack of workload makes it hard to trust him as anything more than a RB3 or flex option in most leagues. Also, if the Ravens get up early, it could be another Gus Edwards second half. Gus actually led the Ravens with nine rushing attempts last week in a lopsided victory over Washington. Be careful with Ingram.
Week 4 at Washington Football Team
Mark Ingram ran the ball just seven times for 30 yards last week against the Chiefs, as the Ravens got down early, struggled to extend possessions, and was held to just 12 total carries from their three primary running backs. Ingram was expected to get a little more work in a less lop-sided game, but instead, the offense sputtered and Ingram struggled right along with it. He was even outsnapped by rookie J.K. Dobbins.
Ingram will face a Washington defense that actually ranks 10th in aFPA to opposing running backs, so it’s not a great matchup. Additionally, Washington’s offense has struggled, so it’s possible the Ravens get up early and give them a healthy dose of Gus Edwards in the second half. Consider Ingram an RB3 option this week due to the workload and the potential for rest late in the game.
Week 3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Mark Ingram had 55 yards and a touchdown on the ground, along with 22 yards on a pair of receptions against the Texans last week in a blowout victory. However, he only had nine of the 12 carries that went to Baltimore running backs and was only in on 42% of the team’s offensive snaps. Part of that can be attributed to the score, as the bulk of Gus Edwards’ 10 carries came in the second half and much of it in the fourth quarter. This happened a lot last year too. The Ravens would get up early, and then it was Gus Edwards time.
This week, Ingram should see a few more snaps against the Chiefs, who are unlikely to fall so far behind like the Texans last week and the Browns in Week 1. Last year, he had 16 carries, 103 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs, along with four receptions and 32 yards. While it’s unlikely he’ll repeat that level of performance, he’s a sneaky RB2 option this week. Expect a fun matchup.
Week 2 at Houston Texans
Mark Ingram had 10 carries for 29 yards against the Browns last week, concerning numbers when the backfield also includes rookie J.K. Dobbins (7 carries) and Gus Edwards (4 carries). While it seems as though Ingram will lead the way, this looks like a committee that won’t be consistent in workshare. Also concerning is the fact that Dobbins had two touchdowns and Ingram wasn’t targeted in the passing game.
This week, Ingram faces a Texans defense that just allowed 138 yards and a touchdown on the ground to rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and looked like they miss D.J. Reader on that defensive line. Ingram is a risky start because of workload, but he should still be worth considering as a RB3/flex option in what could be a pretty good matchup. Monitor the workload in the Baltimore backfield carefully moving forward.
Week 1 vs. Cleveland Browns
Mark Ingram is coming off a nice season for the Ravens with 1,018 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, supplemented by 26 receptions, 247 yards and five touchdowns in the passing game. Ingram has been productive when given the touches and he should continue to see the lion’s share of touches for at least one more season in Baltimore. Ingram owners rejoiced when rookie J.K. Dobbins was listed fourth on the team’s depth chart, released on Monday.
The Browns weren’t great defensively last season, ranking 29th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Additionally, the Ravens defense should be improved with the additions of Calais Campbell and rookie Patrick Queen. That should spell plenty of work for the Baltimore ground attack, which should equate to solid RB2 numbers from Ingram. Start him to begin the season.
Fantasy Upside
Mark Ingram is coming off a solid first season in Baltimore, finishing the year with 1,265 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns, including 26 receptions. Ingram benefitted from being a part of the league’s number one offense in points per game, despite losing carries to both quarterback Lamar Jackson and backup Gus Edwards in a change-of-pace role. Ingram doesn’t so much have upside as he has steady production, year after year. Over the past four seasons, he averages 0.64 touchdowns per game and was 12th among running backs last season in red zone rushing attempts.
Fantasy Downside
The big concern with Ingram is the addition of J.K. Dobbins in the second round of the draft. Dobbins does a little bit of everything and projects as a potential three-down and long-term starter for the Ravens. So Ingram not only has to contend with Jackson’s consistent rushing and Gus Edwards closing out blowouts, he also has a young, explosive rookie threatening his job. Ingram will also turn 31 in December. Ingram also seems bound for a touchdown regression regardless of the competition on the team. T.J. Hernandez’s Studs and Duds article showed his total expected touchdowns to be 10.25, compared to the 15 he scored.
2020 Bottom Line
The addition of Dobbins and Ingram getting on in years is extremely concerning, as is the probable touchdown regression. However, he’s being drafted in the fifth round of 12-team leagues, giving him some value for fantasy owners looking at locking up a solid RB2 after the initial surge of backs are off the board. We have him ranked right in line with guys like Melvin Gordon and Le’Veon Bell, who are both going a couple rounds earlier. If you can wait and still get Ingram, he has the potential to pay off for you. However, he should be viewed as someone fantasy owners fall back to, rather than aggressively targeting.
Week 16 at Cleveland Browns
Mark Ingram had a nice game against the Jets last week with 13 carries and a reception for a total of 86 yards and a pair of touchdowns in an easy Baltimore victory. Ingram has been steady all season and now has 14 touchdowns in his first year as a Raven. He needs only 37 more rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the third time in his career, and his 5.0 yards-per-carry average this season is his second-best of his career.
This week, Ingram should once again be active against a Browns defense that just gave up four touchdowns to Kenyan Drake a week ago. Their defense has struggled in recent weeks as the season has slipped away from them and they’ve had to adjust to life without Myles Garrett following his suspension. We have Ingram ranked in our top 10 and he’s an excellent option in all formats.
Week 15 vs. New York Jets
Mark Ingram was limited to 50 yards on 15 carries last week against a tough Bills defense, but he did manage to add 29 yards on three receptions, turning in another double-digit PPR day. He has double-digit PPR points in all but five games this season and is averaging 15.7 touches per outing, giving him a high floor in any given week.
The Jets rank 11th in aFPA to opposing running backs, so it’s not a simple matchup for Ingram this week. However, the Ravens have been able to produce at least modest fantasy numbers against tougher competition before and it’s possible the Ravens run away with this one and the running game dominates. Ingram should be started as a safe RB2 option in all league formats.
Week 14 at Buffalo Bills
Mark Ingram was held largely in check by a tough 49ers defense last week, rushing for 59 yards on 15 carries. He added a pair of receptions that led to only three receiving yards, but it was a disappointing fantasy day overall for the steady veteran. Ingram did touch the ball 17 times however, a number that continues to give him a high floor in all formats.
This week, Ingram faces a Bills defense that ranks 18th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Ingram should once again be featured, making him a solid RB2 option based on workload alone. Expect him to bounce-back this week with a better matchup.
Week 13 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Mark Ingram was super-efficient against the Rams last week, averaging 7.4 yards on 15 attempts and finishing with two touchdowns on the day – one rushing and one receiving. The Ravens destroyed the Rams 45-6 and currently look like the most dominant team in football after outscoring opponents 135-26 over the past three games combined. Ingram brings security to the position with an average of 15.4 touches per game and he’s scored at least one touchdown in seven of his 11 games this year.
This week presents a tough matchup for Ingram and the Ravens’ offense. The 49ers rank second in the league behind the Saints in aFPA to opposing running backs this season, and they just shut down Aaron Jones in a convincing victory over the Packers last week. However, the Ravens’ offense should find enough room to give Ingram RB2 numbers, as has been his floor throughout the season. Start him, despite the tough matchup.
