Week 5 at Dallas
Andy Dalton jumped back up last week with 296 passing yards, but threw only one touchdown (which gives him a total of 3 for the season). He has helped the Bengals win games, but has not been a fantasy factor so far in 2016.
That could change this week. Dalton takes on Dallas (who is 28th in aFPA to quarterbacks in the NFL), so this is a great matchup this week. We expect Dalton to be able to put up some of his best numbers along with some red zone opportunities and a chance to throw multiple touchdowns in a game for the first time this season.
Start Dalton Week 5 against the Cowboys as a low-end QB1. Dalton will get some chances, and he usually takes advantage of opportunities when gets them.
Week 4 vs. Miami
Andy Dalton wasn't expected to put up good numbers against an outstanding Denver defense, and that is exactly what we got. He threw for a season-low 206 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. For the season, Dalton has two touchdown passes and two picks (not a great start from a fantasy standpoint). On a side note, he did run for 40 yards against the Broncos, which was unexpected.
There is finally some hope this week. Dalton will face an average Miami defense, that is 18th in aFPA to quarterbacks. On a short week at home, we expect Dalton and the Bengals offense will have a preparation advantage as well.
The Bengals will need to protect Dalton better, but that should happen this week and lead to some good fantasy numbers for Week 4. Start Dalton in all leagues and formats as a solid QB1 against Miami.
Week 3 vs. Denver
Andy Dalton has been consistent the last two weeks, with 366 passing yards in both games and one touchdown in each game. Last week against the Steelers, he only completed 57% of his passes, while throwing 54 times. And it really didn't help the Bengals offense put points on the board.
It's not going to get any easier in Week 3, as the Broncos come to Cincy. Denver boasts one of the best defenses in football and usually gives quarterbacks nightmares. Even at home, Dalton is not expected to have a good game, so keep him on the bench Sunday against the World Champs.
Week 2 at Pittsburgh
Andy Dalton threw for 366 yards in Week 1 against the Jets and helped his team to a comeback win. However, he only threw one touchdown to go along with one pick, and we know he never has running stats that are worthy of a fantasy mention. One thing to keep an eye on is the other receivers surrounding A.J. Green. Green was targeted 13 times, while the other three receivers were targeted a combined eight times.
Dalton will face a Steelers defense that gave up a ton of yardage against Washington, but was very good at limiting the damage in the red zone. Dalton has also not had many games against Pittsburgh, although he hasn't had too many stinkers either.
Dalton will be a QB2 for Week 3 on the road at Heinz Field and will probably be a backup most of this season, especially if another receiver doesn't step up.
Week 1 at New York Jets
When it looked like the Bengals might be a Super Bowl contender, Andy Dalton has another bad break and this time it was his thumb. That squashed Cincy's championship hopes, but Dalton is healed and ready to try again. Many times during the season, Dalton appeared to be headed to QB1 status. He threw 25 touchdowns before the injury and just looked more confident and competitive,
Dalton has a tough matchup to start the season where he will face Darrelle Revis and the New York Jets defense which was 7th in aFPA last season to quarterbacks. Dalton will also be without his starting tight end Tyler Eifert and new faces surround Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green. Add a new offensive coordinator and there are plenty of question marks with the Bengals offense.
For Week 1, Dalton is a low-end QB2. The Jets defense combined with those question marks make it hard to predict how good the Bengals offense will be, especially early in the season. Keep him on the bench this Sunday, but he still remains a good backup for the 2016 season.
Fantasy Upside
Andy Dalton had some impressive numbers in 2015. His passing percentage was a career-high 66 percent. His TD-to-INT ratio was 25-to-7, also a career best. The fantasy numbers were solid, but could get better this season with a change at offensive coordinator. Former OC Hue Jackson emphasized the run while new OC Ken Zampese was the quarterbacks coach for years in Cincy. Usually quarterback coaches like to throw the ball. One other quick fact about Dalton is that he does have 13 rushing touchdowns over the past four season. That's a pretty high number for someone who attempts 3.4 rushing attempts per game.
Fantasy Downside
Last season, Dalton average 250 yards passing per game, which was the second highest of his career. He did miss three games which limited his over all numbers, but in the pass-happy NFL, Dalton's average only ranked him 19th of quarterbacks with more than 250 pass attempts. Another factor going into 2016 is Dalton's offensive weapons. A.J. Green is still one of the NFL's best but after that, Dalton will be relying on the growth of Tyler Eifert and rookie Tyler Boyd plus veteran Brandon LaFell.
2016 Bottom Line
Dalton is the 14th-ranked quarterback going into the season, and that ranking is justifiable based on his career numbers. Some people had some hope based on his 2013 season that he could put up consistent 4,000 yards and 30 touchdown pass seasons, but he hasn't repeated those numbers the last two seasons. Dalton's ADP is 120 and that might be a little high considering he will be a QB2 on most fantasy teams. Of course, if his secondary receivers have an impact, his draft position could be a bargain.
Week 14 vs Pittsburgh
Andy Dalton seems back in form the last two games completing 74 percent of his passes and throwing five touchdowns. It's interesting that he threw a season-low 19 passes against Cleveland, yet still produced his best quarterback rating of the season (146.8).
Dalton will face the rival Steelers at home this week. Pittsburgh is ranked 11th in aFPA to quarterbacks and held Dalton to 231 yards in the first meeting earlier this season. He threw one touchdown and two interceptions. He has never had great numbers against the Steelers. Dalton has been good enough this year and the Pittsburgh pass defense has struggled lately so he is still a QB1 for Week 14. Start Dalton in all leagues and formats.
Week 13 vs Cleveland
For the fifth time this season, Andy Dalton threw three touchdowns in a game and he also completed 74% of his passes for 233 yards. It was a very efficient day for the Bengals offense and he reconnected with No. 1 target A.J. Green.
It should be another banner game for Dalton who will face a Browns defense that is reeling right now and is ranked 30th in aFPA to quarterbacks. In the first meeting this season, Dalton threw three touchdowns and zero picks in a Cincy win.
Start Dalton in all leagues and formats as a top five fantasy quarterback for Week 13.
Week 12 vs St. Louis
Andy Dalton bounced back nicely last week after his worst game of the season. He eclipsed the 300 passing yard mark for the fourth time this season, first since Week 5. He also threw two touchdown passes without an interception. He is listed as questionable for Week 12 with a groin issue, but we expect him to play.
The Chiefs will be a challenge for Dalton as they rank second in aFPA to quarterbacks. We aren't expecting a great outing as he is ranked as a high-end QB2. Keep him on the bench against Kansas City.
Week 11 at Arizona
Andy Dalton had his worst game of the season on Monday and its hard to say why. He threw for only 197 yards and completed 58 percent of his passes, both season lows. Dalton has been outstanding this season and this was the first time we have seen him struggle so although it is not a red flag yet, it is something to keep in the back of your mind.
Dalton has a tough road game in Arizona in prime time (is that a factor?). The Cards defense is only 12th in aFPA to quarterbacks to no real advantage either way in the matchup. But this game worries us a little bit for Dalton to the point where he should probably be on the bench for Week 12 as a high-end QB2.
