Week 9 at Jacksonville Jaguars
After throwing 4 interceptions in his last two games, Andy Dalton put up a much better performance last week against Indianapolis. He threw for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns without a pick. Dalton has had a roller coaster of a season, and an especially bad start. But besides the really bad outing against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, he has been a borderline QB1.
Dalton has a very tough matchup against Jacksonville, who is ranked first in aFPA to quarterbacks. The Jags have stymied some pretty good offenses this season.
Keep Dalton on the bench for Week 9. He rates as a low-end QB2. Even though he has had some value over recent weeks, the matchup should temper his performance.
Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
After recovering from a slow start, Andy Dalton could not keep his momentum going after the bye week against the rival Steelers. He threw for a season-low 140 yards and although he did throw two touchdowns, he also threw two interceptions. We might want to throw this start out the window as Dalton always seems to struggle in Pittstburgh.
The Colts are up next and this is a great matchiup for Dalton. Indy is 29th in aFPA to quarterbacks and with the Bengals back home, Dalton should put up some very good numbers.
Dalton rates a solid QB1 for Week 8. With some decent QBs on the bye week and the Colts defense struggling, he moves up to a starting position on Sunday.
Week 7 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Andy Dalton had his first 300+ yard passing game before the bye week to push the Bengals to their second straight win. He did injure his ankle, but the week off helped with the healing process and he has been a full participant in practices this week. He did throw 2 interceptions against Buffalo, but has been serviceable the past three games.
Dalton will face the Steelers, who are ranked fifth in aFPA to quarterbacks. He has struggled against Pittsburgh throughout his career and has not had a multi-touchdown passing performance since 2014.
On the road against Pittsburgh, despite Dalton playing better, he only ranks as a low-end QB2 for Week 7.
Week 5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Sometimes a trip to Cleveland is enough to wake an offense up and that's exactly what happened with Cincinnati. Andy Dalton completed 83% of his passes for 286 yards and four touchdowns last Sunday. After two very bad weeks where he threw zero TDs and four INTs, the Bengals appear to have righted the offense and now, Dalton has become relevant in fantasy again.
It won't be easy to repeat the Week 4 performance. Cincy will face a Bills defense that is 3rd in aFPA to quarterbacks. Last week, Buffalo shut the Falcons' Matt Ryan on the road. So even with the resurgence of Dalton, the matchup isn't a good one.
Dalton rates a QB2 for Week 5 against the Bills.
Week 4 at Cleveland Browns
After two horrendous games, Andy Dalton's performance last Sunday was much better as he completed 78% of his passes for 212 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 picks. Not quite QB1 numbers but a vast improvement from his earlier games.
So, did Dalton and the Bengals change at offensive coordinator turn the offense around? Probably too early to tell. However, this could be a decent week as Dalton faces a Cleveland defense ranked dead last in aFPA to quarterbacks.
I think there are still some concerns about Dalton overall and that will limit his fantasy rank for Week 4. Expect QB2-type numbers
Week 3 at Green Bay Packers
It has been a terrible start for Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense in 2017, although last week wasn't nearly as bad as Week 1. Dalton didn't throw a pick and completed 57% of his passes, which was 6% higher than the previous week. However, the Bengals didn't score a touchdown for the second straight week and fired their offensive coordinator Ken Zampese.
Now, the Bengals take a trip to Lambeau Field and face a defense that has put tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks through the first two weeks of the season. Dalton has to find a way to handle that pressure which has not happened early this season.
Even with the change in offensive coordinator, it's hard to imagine Dalton turning it around this week. Cincinnati will eventually score touchdowns, but it might not happen this week versus a good Packers pass rush. Sit Dalton in all leagues and formats—he's a low-end QB2 option, at best.
Week 2 vs. Houston Texans
Yikes! Well, there is good news for Andy Dalton owners. Can't get any worse. Dalton had his worst game as a professional, turning the ball over five times including four interceptions. It's probably an overreaction after just one game, but there are some red flags. Dalton had his full arsenal of offensive weapons yet still struggled at home against a familiar division opponent. But there is no reason to think Dalton is not going to rebound.
He will have a tough matchup in Week 2 against a good Texans pass defense. Dalton does get to play at home again, but it's during a short week. There's no reason to have Dalton in your starting lineup Thursday as there are just many better options this weekend. Dalton might be worth considering as a QB2, but even that is a reach this week.
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Many are predicting a strong fantasy season for Andy Dalton, but it might have to wait to get started after Week 1. He will face a familiar foe as division rival Baltimore comes to Cincy. Last year, Dalton had two average performances against the Ravens. He threw only two TDs, but didn't throw an interception.
Baltimore was 5th in aFPA to quarterbacks in 2016 so the matchup favors the Ravens. Even though the game is at Paul Brown Stadium, Dalton did not play well at home last season as he ended up throwing only 7 TDs in seven games last season.
We don't like a the division matchup for Dalton to start the season. He definitely ranks a QB2 for Week 1 so keep him as your backup.
Fantasy Upside
Andy Dalton managed to throw for 4,206 yards last season which was the second highest total of his career. That's even more impressive considering top targets AJ Green and Tyler Eifert missed a combined 14 games. Dalton also kept his INT total down after throwing 17 two seasons ago. The last two years, he has thrown a total of 17. Dalton has a pedigree now and has proven he is capable of being fantasy QB1 (3 of the last 5 seasons). The Bengals also recognized he needed some help and drafted two skill players, WR John Ross and RB Joe Mixon, with their first two draft picks.
Fantasy Downside
Despite a good yardage total last seaason, Dalton only threw 18 touchdowns after throwing 25 the season before. Part of reason might have been the absence of Green and Eifert, but it's nowhere near the 33 he threw in 2013. No doubt Green has a major influence on Dalton's overall numbers. In the last two seasons, with a healthy Green for 23 games, Dalton has completed 65.4% of his passes for 261 yards (8.1 YPA) and 1.57 TD (with just 0.57 INT) per game.
2017 Bottom Line
Dalton is the 18th quarterback coming off the board and this means you can get incredible value selecting him this season. His overall ADP is 127 and that mean he is going somewhere around the 13th round. He can be a QB1 this season so drafting him a little earlier could make your fantasy draft in 2017.
Week 17 vs Baltimore
Andy Dalton threw for 268 yards and a touchdown last week. It's not as bad as it looks, as the Bengals were without their top running back and wide receiver. Dalton has been very average this year, and you have to wonder where he is headed as far as his status in the NFL. You won't be able to tell this Sunday in a meaningless home game.
Dalton struggled in the first meeting with the Ravens, throwing two picks but has had his moments against Baltimore. We don't expect that this week, even though he gets Jeremy Hill back. Keep Dalton on the bench.
