Week 4 vs. Steelers
The Green Bay Packers finally called on kicker Mason Crosby for multiple field goal tries in Week 3 for the first time in forever. He rewarded fantasy managers with the third-most fantasy points among kickers. The Packers are decent home favorites in Week 4, so there's a chance Crosby does well again, but our models are a bit more pessimistic. They project Crosby to come back down to his typical averages as our K17 this week.
Week 3 at 49ers
The Green Bay Packers simply go for it on fourth down on the opponents' side of the field too often for kicker Mason Crosby to be a prolific fantasy kicker anymore. This is great news for fans of analytical decision-making in the NFL, but terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad news for fans of fantasy kicking. Crosby projects as our K23 in fantasy football this week; stay away at all costs.
Week 2 vs. Lions
Week 1 saw the Green Bay Packers get absolutely torched on both sides of the ball, leading to a paltry three-point game for kicker Mason Crosby. The veteran bootsman nailed his lone attempt last week, but just had no opportunities to add more with the game fully out of reach by the third quarter.
Week 2 should provide much better chances for Crosby in fantasy football, as three of our boxes get ticked by this matchup: the Packers are at home on Monday night, they are favored by 11.5 points, and have an implied team total of 30 points over the hapless Detroit Lions. The Lions gave up 14.0 fantasy points to a kicker last week, so it's not unrealistic to hope for a similar outcome for Crosby if the Pack don't get too aggressive about going for it on fourth down. Our models project him for 3.3 extra points and 1.6 field goals in Week 2 as fantasy's K13 – on the cusp of startable, but worth a longer look than you'd think due to context.
Week 1 at Saints
This is not the ideal situation to have to roll out Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby in your fantasy leagues. Playing on the road in potentially inclement weather, despite being favored and with a solid game total of 49.5 points, makes Crosby a riskier proposition than you'd think on the surface. The Packers' offense was a juggernaut last season, but still only settled for a field goal about a third of the time on fourth downs inside the final third of the field. If Green Bay goes aggressive again, Crosby might get left out in the cold. Our models project him as the 10th-best fantasy kicker in Week 1, with 2.9 extra points and 1.7 field goals, reflecting a balance between both his situational upside and his contextual downside.
Fantasy Upside
When looking for a fantasy kicker, it’s ideal to find one tied to an elite offense. In that regard, Mason Crosby fits the bill perfectly, averaging 72.3 kicking opportunities per season since 2018. In fact, among the 62 kickers over the last three years, Crosby’s 4.7 opportunities per game are 14th-most. His accuracy has remained sharp, as he’s hitting 88.3% of his field goals since 2018 – ninth-best out of 53 kickers to attempt at least 10 field goals. Crosby is still also deadly from deep; he has punched in 80.5% of his field goals from 40 or more yards away, which is also the ninth-best mark.
Fantasy Downside
The Packers’ offense is almost too efficient for Crosby’s fantasy success. His field goal attempts have steadily dropped from 37 in 2018, to 24 in 2019, to just 16 in 2020. This is due to the Packers’ hyper-efficient touchdown scoring offense, which did allow Crosby to hammer in 59-of-63 extra points last season – but XP’s only count for a third or less of an FG. This led to a finish as just the K19 in 2020 fantasy football. If the Packers stay on their tour of offensive terror in 2021, Crosby won’t get the critical mass of three-point attempts that will make him a fantasy player worth drafting.
2021 Bottom Line
Our models are fairly convinced the Packers’ offense will come down to earth, projecting Crosby as fantasy football’s K6 for this season. Crosby is one of just two top-10 projected kickers in our model going outside the 20th round by ADP currently, making him an enormous value. If you can secure him in the 22nd round or beyond, Mason Crosby presents a secure weekly point floor with tremendous upside in 2021.
2016 Fantasy Outlook
Since taking over as Green Bay's kicker in 2007, Crosby has not attempted fewer than 28 field goals in a season (the total he had last season). He did make 24 and was 4-of-5 on field goals of more than 50 yards. His PAT's dipped to a career-low 36 last season, but Crosby is as solid as they come. His ADP places him ninth among kickers, which sounds perfectly reasonable.
Mason Crosby, Week 1 vs Seahawks
Given that Seattle doesn't give up a ton of points at home, you'd think Mason Crosby wouldn't be a good start this week. But a stingy defense sometimes gives up more field goal attempts. Crosby's one of the better kickers in the league. You have to start him regardless of the matchup.
Fantasy Upside
Mason Crosby is one of the more active kickers in the NFL. He attempted two or more field goals in 11 of 16 games last season.
Fantasy Downside
As we saw in 2013, his play is directly tied to Aaron Rodgers. In the eight games in which Rodgers played all four quarters, he attempted 21 field goals. In the games started by somebody else at quarterback, he had 16 atttempts. Just as importantly, he had less than two PATs with Rodgers at QB just three times. Without Rodgers, that rose to five out of eight games.
Bottom Line
There's no reason to think Rodgers is going to miss time again. Crosby is one of the best fantasy kickers going.
